Member Info for Mirasol

16:00:52 18-Mar-2020 0.33 GBX 200,000 660.00 Off-book AIMX
16:00:26 18-Mar-2020 0.39 GBX 2,000,000 7,800.00 Off-book SINT
16:00:07 18-Mar-2020 0.39 GBX 2,000,000 7,800.00 Off-book SINT

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It's free and what's better it's accurate..............

" I've a feeling this time round the Saudis will blink before anyone else"

Don't bet on it -they can make money out of oil when the rest of the world is on its uppers. They hold the whip hand in any fight with Russia

"Does anyone feel this virus could wipe UKOG out."

If they can re-establish regular production at 200 bopd average they'll be OK - it may mean a cutback in staff numbers (do you need PR? Maybe an accountant rather than a full-time FD??, a move to a smaller office, no expenditure on new drilling etc etc but companies have survived for years on 100 bopd.

Assuming no expensive kit on site like Coiled tubing I reckon they 're employing 12-16 people on a regular basis - by the time you add in office overheads, pensions, NI, NOMADS, AIM fees etc we're probably looking at £ 1000/per man day

so lets say £ 15k a day = USD 18k per day = 900 bopd assuming $10/bbl handling cost and an OP of $ 30 a bbl.

So we need 4 tankers Average a day = 4-5 a working day excl Sunday - if the OP rises to $ 40 3 daily tankers will do it

"Are ukog selling oil for peanuts Just shut down and leave it in the ground"

Apart from the fact they desperately need the cash at any price there are good technical reasons you don't shut in a well that's flowing. there are quite a few examples of wells refusing to flow after a prolonged shut-in - you can get changes of chemistry at the well/rock interface for example that can gum things up big time

"Are ukog selling oil for peanuts Just shut down and leave it in the ground"

Apart from the fact they desperately need the cash at any price there are good technical reasons you don't shut in a well that's flowing. there are quite a few examples of wells refusing to flow after a prolonged shut-in - you can get changes of chemistry at the well/rock interface for example that can gum things up big time

I see the planners don't like ANGS's plans at Balcombe....................

You have to give it SS - he's steered a great line with the planners.....

"Could this be another on-shore Wytch Farm in the making, I believe it`s different geology, but no reason why not as SS proves up the field. "

It's nothing like Wytch Farm - not the geology , not the reserves, not the production.

A give-away is that the second well , HH-2z, has encountered unpredicted separate pressure regimes in the Portland - which means the field is not as uniform as they hoped it would be. It's a relatively small, average UK Onshore field.

"A question would you prefer Tullow oil at 8p (down from £2.50) to UKOG. Interesting choices."

Tullow actually own serious reserves and production - ukog...??

I can see a big boy buying Tullow but UKOG???? never

"At 0.35p I am not surprised that some have soiled their shorts and decided to burn them (they think that COVID can be passed on through excrement)."

Never has been any evidence of anyone shorting UKOG - one or two idiot spread betters have 'fessed up but that's all

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00B9MRZS43GBGBXASQ1&formName=frmRow&upToRow=10

last half hour almost all trades at 0.39 a low trade at 0.36 and a high at 0.40

looking at other small UK oil companies they can cover their costs long term at around 100 bopd - EDR are an excellent example - they've been around for 20 years through at least 2 oil downturns. OK they occasionally raise cash but long term they're very stable.

Penguins is right tho' that operations ARE expensive - now UKOG have most of them covered but they also have to complete the Tellurian purchase shortly. I don't think they are at deaths door - the FDP will be a great comfort to lenders - they may have to defer drilling for a year or so but even at 220 bopd they can stay afloat

I have a very bad feeling about Balcombe - I just don't believe anything the old regime did and think it will be costly and it probably won't work. Sentiment will be massacred again

TBH I'd prefer it if they just canned it and said they'd concentrate on Saltfleetby - at least we know the gas is there and can be produced. Sure it would be 2 years of nothing happening but I think it's wiser in the medium term

There is no reason they should issue weekly updates - they never have in the past and they won't change

If you want a daily fix go to someone like 88Energy who issue an RTNS telling you that the sun came up this morning....... or anything Dave Lenigas is involved with

Why?

The short term outlook is not good for any stock - the Virus Panic and the fall in oil prices are both suppressing market sentiment for any energy stock - this is unlikely to improve until mid/late summer IMHO. Oil price wars tend to take 12-16 months before someone folds their hand and they cut back production.

At UKOG the achievement the FDP should not be underestimated for medium term growth - it is a very solid fact. Although the OGA do not "endorse" any numbers they do carry out a full technical audit - so there may well be unknowns and a wide range of values we're not privy to (short of a CPR) but we can be certain it's not all smoke & mirrors and the numbers have a industry accepted technical justification.

If UKOG have a problem it's that their income forecast for 2020 is almost certainly shot - delays, oil price fall etc, So I'd expect a need for more loan cash - not as much as in previous years but more than expected on 1 Jan this year. Expect hem to keep the pressure on up planning for IoW and Dunsfold (this is relatively cheap cp drilling) but any new drilling in 2020 is probably (wisely) going to be deferred.

Right now I feel a lot more comfortable about the long term viability here - only stock price recovery has moved well to the right IMHO

"Other than the fix, I dout SS has any better figures."

From his public appearances I doubt the market Cap of the company crosses his mind once a month - he's focused on production and profit not share price

"The fact the the cooked tubing tower disappeared overnight gives some credence to the idea that there may have been night time tanker movements too."

The CT tower may have left at dawn but unlikely - it's probably being disassembled on the ground ready for a trip out on Monday. The fact it's down suggests they're finished with the workover and probably flow testing at low initial rates soon.

They DO NOT run tankers over night - (or on Sat afternoons, Sundays or Bank Holidays) - that would be a clear & flagrant breach of the planning regs and would lead to an immediate shut down by the Council. It also wouldn't impress the OGA who are sitting on the Field Development Plan. After 5 years of struggle they'd be mental to risk the whole thing just to confuse the "eyes".

"The truth is ,no one knows what the situation is,and self appraisal is no recomendation, as a risk assessment this is a high risk investment"

I'll believe it has worked when we see 14+ tankers of oil per week............

Fool has a couple of pictures of a t least 4 sets of Air Products Nitrogen tanks - each set looks like it has a ?12+? N2 cylinders on it