Member Info for minimil

"belatedly correct" ?

Been saying that about Valkor for a long time on this board despite the criticism from many here without back up . Nice to hear somebody finally acknowledges how fake Valkor are.
Not one reply to my emails to them btw, and a fuel gas skid for Nigeria??? Not allowed there as they have been fabricating these skids in country since 2017!
Valkor the designers who did not take into account the cold weather conditions for POSP???
Anyway, the guy in his shed now has 29% of TOM - it is what it is, well done TOM BOD.

Paul - That's correct but there is one glaring omission. The POSP plant had issues due to low ambient temperatures and required modifications to overcome these issues. This entailed excessive costs beyond the initial agreements of the JV.
Based on the funds raised by TOM in the Nov 2020 placing and what they now have left in the bank (June 2021 Interim's RNS) it does not take Albert Einstein to work out that this was ALL funded by TOM.
I am really glad Valkor are now out of the equation as far as Greenfield is concerned but the 29% share ownership was too high in my opinion. It is was it is and we move on..

Craggs - From 16 November 2020 placing RNS

Use of Proceeds
In order to facilitate the Company's future plans for Greenfield, which assumes successful POSP trials and the completion of the FEED study, the net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £3.2 million will be specifically utilised as follows:

· US$0.5 million (approximately £0.4 million) will be loaned by the Company to Greenfield (the "Loan"), which together with the US$1.5 million already provided by the Company to Greenfield to upgrade the POSP, which as set out above, secures the new Petroteq Licence. Under the terms of the Petroteq Licence, the US$0.5 million will be invested by Greenfield into the POSP in order to satisfy the full consideration for the Petroteq Licence. The Loan will be unsecured and has an interest rate of 6% per annum payable at the same time as the principal of the Loan is repaid. The Loan is repayable on the second anniversary of the date of advance or earlier with the consent of both Valkor and TomCo or immediately on an insolvency event of Greenfield;

· Approximately £1.3 million will be utilised for the Group's general working capital purposes over the next 12 months and beyond and, if required, providing further funding to Greenfield; and

· Approximately £1.5 million will be retained by the Company with the intention that it is used, inter alia, to facilitate the securing of a site by Greenfield for the first proposed commercial 10,000 bopd plant using Petroteq's Oil Sands Technology pursuant to the Petroteq Licence. Once a suitable site has been identified, the Company intends on providing a loan to Greenfield, which will be on the same terms as the Loan, which will be used to secure the site.

Notice they used the term "specifically utilised.." So from the interim results RNS it's clear that the funds were no used as they said they would be.
This just adds more weight to my concerns about Valkor having little or no cash to put into this venture as it all appears to come from Tomco only.
I suspect this is the main reason why Tomco have taken full control of Greenfield but it has come at a heavy price with Valkor getting 29% of shares on the cheap. I really hope they can raise the necessary funding by way of debt.

@Paul - Can you explain why there is no money left in the pot to make the 10% deposit for the land?
We would all like to hear your take on this...
OTY....

@Craggs - apologies for the late reply - YES I am stating exactly that and it is inferred in the TOM RNS for its latest results RNS. Unfortunately this BB has been infiltrated with Petroteq share holders the former of which can't get its accounts organised. Just go through the TOM RNS's over the past year. It's easy to follow the money trail. You can then make your own opinion of it all. As for trying to find out about Valkor, Sherlock Holmes would struggle.

@Pluginbaby - Valkor will have to live with any placing dilution along with everyone else. Cash wise Valkor have provided zilch to this project which is why Tomco had to redirect previous placing funds which were meant for the 10% deposit on the tar sand land purchase. My personal preference is for 100% debt to secure all the land and build the plant.

Expect better than that from you Vauch - a mortgage arrangement involves putting a deposit down and agreeing to pay the remainder over a fixed term, and if you don't you lose the house or car whichever you prefer.
Elir71 - you are correct I should be doing the ZZZ's 7:30am tee-off time tomorrow and I want to break 100 again.
Good night all

Game's over now from LFT perspective.

Avacta made some nice money from the placing last year. It should put that money into its cancer projects

Either the vaccines work or they don't and given the political drive for most of the world population to take the risk of having the two jabs, nobody wants to go through the rip off costs for testing and inconvenience to go on holiday or quarantine.

Finally, some posters realising what I stated in my essay post this morning.
Vauch, the 9 June RNS about the land acquisition makes no statement about being able to build the plant if only 10% of it has been paid for. I still think it all has to be purchased within the terms of agreement, then the plant can be built. Unless it's part of the negotiations.
I would expect the mighty Valkor to be commencing the detailed design now if that also was part of the 29% share grab??

anyway getting near beer time for me - thanks for the feedback and enjoy the rest of your day :)

Torre - "few quid in bank" figure of speech pal.
Stop pulling on the loose ends and focus on the scenarios to raise funds...

Hmm Vauch - I am not entirely sure if they put the 10% deposit down that gives them the right to build the plant on it. If they can then that would help cash flow.

It's just a matter of changing two entries on my spreadsheet - Behind every number there is an explanation of where it comes from.

Problem is TOM only have a few quid left in the bank after using most of the last placing paying for the POSP work overs. So there is not much left to secure the 10% deposit on the land assuming the DD is positive which it looks like it is. If Petroteq and Valkor would have stuck their hands in their pockets we would be in a better position - that may still end up the case btw.

Vauch - Land + plant = $126 million so convert to £ @ 1.38

100/0 would be the better option for us shareholders. Raising my forecast to 7p and 15p on same basis.
So now you have worst and best as requested.

Craggs - you need to convert $ to £.
Vauch - best case? That entirely depends on where the SP is in the next few months. Clearly if above 1p then warrants will be exercised raising funds at 0.9p instead of 0.45p.
RNS stated majority of fund raise would be by debt which implies the minority in placing. I have gone with 80/20. Best case? 95/5 or 100/0?

Your welcome to your opinion Torre - looking forward to your synopsis.
I did state worse case scenario, something you have clearly overlooked.

I note some posters are making predictions on SP and why not? Even if you make a model it is not easy to predict because of so many variables.
I find it best to split things up between the known and the unknown:
Known
1. Current number of shares
2. Valkor shares to be issued (we want this to happen as it implies project success)
3. Outstanding warrants and their expiry dates
4. Cost of the tar sands land
5. Approx cost for the 5kbbl/d plant (this is an estimate from the FEED report)
6. Funding will be a mix of share placing and debt

The Unknown
1. If the outstanding warrants which are approx at 0.9p will be exercised before the expiry date of November 2022
2. How many placing shares will be issued as part of 6 above.
3. What will be the amount of debt, pay off period, interest rates etc, will the loan involve issue of more warrants?
4. What will be the annual profit based on sales of oil and clean sand?
5. If MSAR works how will this benefit the bottom line?
6. What will be the price of oil and sand in 18-24 months time?
7. What is Tomco owed by both Petroteq and Valkor for funding the POSP workovers?
I am sure most here will have different opinions so I am going to simplify matters by assuming a worst case scenario model. As more information becomes available the model can be revised.
Simplified model assumptions:
1. Since warrant exercise price is 0.9p and current SP is 0.57p these warrants will not be exercised
2. I estimate a placing of 4 billion shares at 0.45p to raise £18million. This represents 20% of the total value of funds required. the remainder will come from a loan paying 10% interest per annum over 3 years. Loan amount £73million!
3. Profit in USD/bbl for oil and sand equivalent is $55/bbl - approx £66 million per year.
4. Loan payment pa is £29 million for 3 years
5. Zero owed from POSP funding and QFI is not applicable.

So following on from that TOM would have approx 6.2 billion shares in issue. Applying a PE of 7 would lead to an SP of around 4p and a market cap of £258 million. Once the loan is paid off SP would be closer to 7.5p.

This is just my own opinion based on the information that is currently at hand - if anyone has better info please feel free to revise the assumptions or numbers.

Nice share T! - Interesting also to hear that funding may also come from potential off takers.
FID by year end is the target and it will be interesting to see the numbers they will put out to warrant the investment. If they are anything like mine then prospects look excellent. Admitting that they think they have this one right is also re-assuring. More news needed like this to get the SP beyond 1p.