Member Info for minimil

Cronos - TOM would be close to producing now if they stuck to the original plans following completion of the FEED. Albeit with significant share dilution but considerably less debt. Please refer to my post last year on this. They must be kicking themselves in light of current oil prices. Massive opportunity missed IMO. We are where we are and as you have stated we await RNS on the drill results and hopefully some progress on funding.

https://ir.stockpr.com/petroteq/news/detail/419

Like many here I was surprised that there was no updates on the drills in the half year results. It's beginning to look like promising the moon but don't have a rocket with these lot concerning the oil sands extraction plant. Let's hope the updates from QFI are verified by TOM in an RNS asap.

Well said Peaky. Europa will likely have £2-3 million in the kitty now. Covers a lot of operational costs. Wressle 400 bbl/d is keeping the company well afloat. Imagine what 20x that production can do. We are a long term play now on Serenity.

Grasping at straws based on QFI update. Would really like to see an update from the TOM board on how the delayed drilling of 3 wells is doing and where they are in the grand plan on the website. Too much to ask Mr P?

Serif, it would also be good if in UK and Ireland we can find the equivalent of this paper:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181004112553.htm
There are over 11,000 wind turbines in UK with 57% located onshore. Ireland has around 400 all onshore. To go carbon free would require trebling the amount. Would be interesting to see some studies as to why there is so much flooding in UK in residential areas. In the meantime the big Oil and Gas producing projects carry on in Saudi (Marjan field expansion 800,000 bbl/d) and the Aussie Scarborough field (8 mtpa of LNG for export and 180 terajoules a day of gas for the domestic market. First cargo from the project is expected in 2026). Stopping climate change in both UK and Ireland is a huge joke compared with what is going on in the rest of the world. It's not a joke though for its consumers who pay top $ to power their homes and businesses. There must be a lot of brown envelopes going around supporting this very expensive green energy business.

@bri..- that would mean they become reliant on another third party which they have no control over. Been almost a year now since the sand processing plant was re-designed by Valkor, and the technology validated. Progress is very slow.

@Crownos Interesting analysis but as you infer there are lots of pieces in the jigsaw that have to be firmly in place.
IMO I would like to see TOM comply with its schedule as shown on their website. We are due an update on how they are progressing on this but its history is one of not sticking to a plan. If they stick to a plan with no share dilution then 5-10p is possible but unlikely until next year. GLA

@Brighty – as much as I and many here would love to see your predictions for the SP come true, how exactly do you arrive at your numbers?
A 10p SP would require a market cap of 170MM GBP by year end (assuming no further share dilution). TOM require funding around $120 MM to pay for the land and to build and commission the 5k plant which they schedule for Q3 2023.
Whilst the third party partnerships are welcome and TOM has once again decided to diverge into drilling activities, there is no way the SP will hit 10p until oil and clean sand are coming off and from the ground at the not yet built plant rate.
If you know more then please enlighten us all.

Agreed, but I get a sense that the minister has his head so far up his preverbial over the Irish green energy agenda that he would not know who owns the approved licenses. Do an energy balance for your country Sir if you are capable. You may not like what you see.

@VernetLes - There are still too many unknowns as yet. However, assuming the appraisal well is a success and that they do not have to drill anymore appraisal wells i.e. next drills will be production and injector wells then EOG's share of the cost development could be in the region of 30MM GBP. So how would this be funded? A placing at mates rates (2,3,4p)?
Income from UK onshore may be in the region of 8 MM GBP/annum which if fully directed to Serenity (as opposed to Director bonus's) would reduce the share dilution.
So based on a 4p placing to raise 22MM GBP, oil production to Europa 4000-5000 bpd, and net crude price sales of 50-90 USD/bbl - I would be looking at SP in the range 17-39p. All this IMO and the numbers in my excel s/s.

@iatuam - was your limit order below the ask price (2.9?). Most buys were around 2.86-2.87. I had the same issue a few days back when the spread was 1.80-2.00. In the end I switched to market order and got the shares between 1.9-2.0.
In the context of where this is likely to go this year my priority would be obtaining the shares I want rather than a few decimals off the price. We all saw how that worked out for Mr I at his 1.6p limit order - completely missed the boat.
Goof luck.

ISK - how do you come up with that number?
It's still all very much back of fag packet to estimate the potential SP as these are still too many unknowns:
1. Final cost, timing and result of the appraisal well.
2. The strategy to exploit the resources assuming favorable appraisal well drill and results.
3. The cost per bbl for 2 above once decided (utilising facilities of other operators or go it alone FPSO).
4. Long term POO and will they hedge over the short term.
5. Daily production rate and 15 year production profile.
My initial guess is 5000 bbl/d to Europa and clearly net profit from this field will based on POO and operating costs.
The potential is fantastic depending on what numbers you use.

Fair, nice profit for those who got in at 1.8p. where is the guy waiting for his 1.6p big order to be filled?

Escpecially when they start producing from NS!

Bang on Austin14. Also back in 2019 oil price fell to $25 ish.
Main reason appraisal drill was suspended.

@Isdeer - there are other factors i.e. how long pop will be above $100, if EDR decide to open the choke a bit more at Wressle. Recent rise from 1.35-1.50 to 3.2-3.6 was imo purely down to this. Even with the current share dilution prices around 2p are a bargain. If appraisal drill is successful and confirms/exceeds previous oip then we are probably looking at 5000 bbl/d to EOG. It will make Wressle look insignificant.

Congratulations on your crystal ball trading Mr I, but I disagree with you on SO. I think Simon has played a blinder here.
The opportunity to get 25% interest in a block with 197MM bbl oil in place and to be drilled/appraised this year is why the decision to make the placing now was necessary. A delay in commitment to this project and he may have missed the boat.

We are only seeing reflection of current wressle production in the sp and the rising price of crude oil. Farm ins for Ireland and Morocco we still await Simon and his band of men to wake up as someone has already eluded.

1. FEED of POSP completed and approved by third party.
2. Due diligence on the land completed and 10% bought.
3. Bi-product sand can be sold and there is a market.
4. Quadrise MSAR process is compatible.
5. P1, P2, P3 reserves report completed and looking great.
6. Exploration drills?
7. Funding for 5k plant?
C'mon Mr Potter!