Analyst Coverage29 Jan 2019 08:02
Hannam & Partners 103 GBp
Pareto Securities 120 GBp
Berenberg 110 GBp
Finncap 96 GBp
Hannam & Partners
Valuation: >100% upside to risked NAV and >15x unrisked upside
Our risked NAV for Eco of 103p/sh includes a core value of 12p/sh (cash and farm-in proceeds), with the remainder risked exploration based on 4 prospects. The unrisked valuation is >15x versus the current price. With the cash and carry available, Eco is well funded for the two highly likely exploration wells and will have cash left over for either further exploration or a new country entry, potentially with Africa Oil following their strategic alliance.
Pareto Securities
We are increasing our target price to GBp120 from GBp95, mainly
due to greater clarity on the company’s exploration prospects
offshore Guyana, with resources estimates materially higher than
our previous assumptions.
Finncap
Investors have learnt the hard way this year that exploration is a high-risk business.
However, if you’re going to own any frontier exploration play, it’s probably best to
have one that sits right next door to >5Bboe of discoveries in the most exciting
exploration province since the pre-salt Santos basin in Brazil. Following a strategic
alliance and farm-out, Eco is cashed up and ready to start drilling this acreage in
2019. The first well on the 250mmbbl Jethro-Lobe prospect, worth an estimated
18p/sh risked (88p/sh unrisked), is slated to start drilling in Q2. Eco’s Orinduik block
also contains an extension of ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead discovery, which is a
candidate for the second drilling slot. We set our risked-NAV based price target at
96p. However, given the attractiveness of Eco’s acreage, a bid for the company
cannot be ruled out. Under this scenario, we believe that a large international oil
company could justify paying north of 300p/sh. We initiate coverage with a Buy rating
and 96p price target.