Member Info for Minesinthemine

Despite all the seemingly wise words from others on this forum, this was always a long term hold for me. I did go beyond my target holding with a view to trade those out at a profit, but it wasn’t to be.

In my opinion we have received more than 2/3 of the news for 2021 which would have driven the SP up. The company are very good at showing the legacy state of finances/cash position and warrants that have come in. However we have had zero information on how much money has been spent in 2021.
I personally believe that what is holding this back is quite simply that we will need more money to continue. What’s the use in having licenses if we don’t have the funds to explore and increase the license value. I am being very negative here and listen to TL stating work is being prepped for Bibemi in Q4 etc… but what next? We have two tranches of £235k approved which at current SP is over 5% dilution. We have warrants that won’t execute as they are at .68p and therefore even if we have enough funds for a substantial 2nd drilling campaign in Bibemi what happens next?? We need funds from somewhere.

Hence my opinion right or wrong is that we need funds for 2022, everybody knows that and without some astounding results and competing JV interest it will be future investors that see the ‘potentially significant’ benefits from the previous and current work unfortunately not me or other current share holders.

I strongly believe that the board (like myself) expected the news to have driven the SP much higher and a raise would therefore have been both easier and more palatable to drive 2022’s work /or enough results to get a JV on board, but I don’t hold out much hope the remaining 2021 announcements will do that.

I am really keen to see the half year results that would confirm or deny my thinking on cash burn and still believe Bob is maximising all spend on projects, Claire is prioritising the work and TL is leveraging all contacts to drive ORR forward but this year has certainly not played out the way I had hoped.

Basically I think there is more chance of SP reduction via raises etc… than news driven SP rises in 2021 but I’m still in as there is still ‘a chance’ to come from the news we have left and my losses are eye watering and unwisely as many people would say cannot bring myself to sell.

Let’s hope TL, Bob and team continue pushing out news and that the costs to maintain the campaigns throughout 21 into 22 are covered. Remember there is a big difference to do what is required/recommended or to do what is funded and I hope the two are close for us.

GLA - seriously do hope we get some more partners interested and the Cameroon drilling cost less than I am assuming.

Kuttz, I hope you’re finding some way to keep cool and have eyed a bar for the F1 in a couple of weeks. I reckon September will shake out the battle at the top and with Japan dropping out one less set of race points available. Is even more important to be on top on th

I may be being overly pessimistic and this is conjecture only but two things spring to mind:
1. It is not in IAMGOLDs interest to complete enough drilling such that a JORC is formalised. TL himself has previously explained that the contract (which he did not create) is very restrictive. ORR themselves cannot do drilling under their own funding/steam, everything is controlled by IAMGOLD. IAMGOLDs intent will be to satisfy themselves, remove as much risk as they can and meet the earn in terms without formally confirming or providing enough data to produce a JORC estimate. Essentially minimising the value of the asset in the market and maximising the value to them. Remember it was confirmed the license cannot be split and IAMGOLD will 'likely' want the license for BOTO. They are not a small exploration company and are in this to make money. Whilst we are partners, they will likely want to get the asset for a little as possible to feed in to BOTO but are in no rush for the asset.
If at somepoint in the future IAMGOLD decide they want to sell the asset they could simply drill the required metre's and do the JORC calcs. Note: ORR will proportionally pick up the cost for this as per the terms of the agreement.
For Madina Bafe, I do expect more focus from IAMGOLD as this could be a good contributor to their business based on the BOTO development, but again they will not want to gain a JORC etc... just derisk it enough for them to potentially make an offer in the future when it suits them. Remember after this earn in IAMGOLD will hold the majority of the license. They also have an option to spend another $4m over the subsequent 2 years to earn a (I think it is) 70% stake.

2. Looking at past dates for drilling and published results, I don't see why Q3. Fare means more to us than to IAMGOLD and I don't believe they are under any obligation to release results separately. They could simply wait until they finish Madina Bafe and we may then not see results until well into Q4.

Not being negative on purpose, having a massive holding(and loss) in this I am simply finding it easier to see the negatives than the positives. I do still believe if strong results come out things will be fine. But am certainly not holding my breath for any coming from IAMGOL in Q3 despite todays RNS. I feel it is more likely we see something from the initial sampling in Cameroon (which I don't think will shift the SP much) before we see anything from IAMGOLD.

Very much happy to and hoping to be proved wrong though!

Sorry would also add that one thing Bob has done since coming on is to get a handle on costs and ensure that any money spent is accounted for and used wisely.

Hence whilst we might not have full details of the plan or associated spend we know that any monies available will be used to maximise the return so do have some degree of confidence there. Just not sure we can say we are fully funded when we don’t know the plan or cost.

We 'believe' they are fully funded for this year's drilling campaign.

It is rainy season now and they haven't confirmed the next plan or scope of drilling in Bibemi. From recent interviews, this is the work that they are doing now. I.e. Analysing all of the recent results and working through a plan for what should be delivered. They 'could' decide it is best to build a plan around the remaining funds they have. Or they could leave it up to the geologists to build their request and then review the scope/costs associated with that plan and see if it fits. Any shortfall for this year could be made up from the 2 x £235k dilution that that was approved at the AGM.

I am not expecting it imminently, but I'd like the board to come out with more details of the plan for the rest of the year and into 2022 i.e. until next years rainy season. I expect the reason that they are just talking high-level about the ongoing sampling in the other Cameroon licenses etc.. without an actually confirmed/detailed plan for Bibemi is because they are still formulating the plan. Any shortfall in the plan will likely need to be made up by investors, but the hope is that Senala results will have come in and maybe some more asset realisation that both increases the SP and minimises the funding requirement/dilution.

But to say we are fully funded this year I am not certain is wholly true as we have not be given any confirmation of a 2H drilling campaign yet.

Happy to be challenged, and one of my posts I tried to work out the cash position of the company, but don't have all the details as the company hasn't shared any more, likely for obvious reasons.

I can't say a 'Placing' thought or two hasn't passed me by. It's obvious that without realising some more value from existing assets we will need one fairly soon. Shouldn't disrupt our current work, but certainly for next year's work the coffers will be empty and we have XXk's of km of licenses in Cameroon. Even just focussing on one particular license or further drilling in Bibemi etc... requires funds.

Not deramping just facts and I personal placed my bet that the SP would be much higher before any placing and now like many others are hoping for Senala to come through to allow a break even!

Like others said yesterday, sustainable volume, sustainable rise and good Senela results are what are needed, but unfortunately, whether we like it or not a placing will be coming at some point in the future, potentially near.

Obviously just my opinion and not trying to influence anyone, I personally am staying put for Senala results but would certainly be nicer treading water at a higher SP so appreciate the last 24 hrs.

Great stuff Kutzz, I've left mine alone, still 18m@0.92.

Hovered over a sell a number of times to clear down to 10m and also just checking what volume was easy to move, but for now just left it alone. Could have grown holding/reduced loss if I'd done it but no hindisght trading from me.

I still have some funding concerns here, but equally, hopeful of some strong Fare results then subsequently Madina Bafe, or maybe delayed with both delivered at the same time. Hence no timelines or checking in on when things are being issued etc... they will come when they come.

Either way, I do think Senala will pay off and pull us back above 1p, then it's just a case of either realising some more value from existing assets or another raise to drive '22 work in Cameroon.

Wasn't caught out on OMI, but annoyingly didn't sell when it spiked the other week. On ORR if we get something similar though....

Anyway, hope you managed to find enough free time enjoy the F1. Look after yourself.

Kutzz, we need that for a month to get back something right, but agree it’s a nice change!

Kutzz, I’m definitely or you may say defiantly sitting on my hands.

Some would argue I have lost money by doing that and not selling out as we tumbled down. I don’t really have much space left in my or the wife’s ISA to average down but may throw a few quid in to trade.

However just sitting on the sidelines waiting for results. I am not even putting any timescales on them. But would like to see a more detailed plan from the team soon on next steps in Cameroon. We do still have funds left for drilling and would be good to know how they will be used.

Sloping off back into the dark abyss of zoom now but tentatively waiting for news.

It rhymes with Buying and starts.

Cekim, I noticed they posted a couple of exerts from recent presentations on Twitter over the last few days following the results.

I guess they are trying to halt any further market slide by reiterating:
1. They have more assets than just Cameroon and Senegal, and that some of these assets have potential value or monies coming in (e.g. chasing down some significant fees in Turkey) hencemay be able to help fund further Cameroon exploration
2. That Cameroon is right at the start of the exploration phase and that we have a significant package of licenses, and indeed are first movers there with solid government support

That is great, however things will remain challenging here for some time I fear, without some strong results in Senegal to change the sentiment and equally important in my opinion is a well structured commuication about the second phase of work in Bibemi. One that gives confidence in the project, the companies ability to fund the work and sets some expectations on the timeline and potential outcomes.

I personally feel that given the market reaction we need both Senegal results AND a Funded Cameroon plan to reverse the SP direction.

OMI took off today with some solid results, however hasn't climbed back to it's previous highs of Feb. I am sure like ORR there will be some that bought in the high 20's/30's that are still under water, but hope that for them this is a change in sentiment as supports a sustainable new market value for the company.

Let's hope we get a similar if not more explosive rise from our Senegal results and that it is not too Far(e) to wait now.

GLA

Legalwolf, I think we both generally agree, that if it gets to that clause being active and having to fund the ongoing work Pro-Rata at either 41.65% (85% of 49%) or 2yr down the line at 25.5% (85% of 30% assuming IAMGOLD extend the earn in) then there will be proven value in Senala such that a Sale or Fund will be much easier and therefore I am not concerned. In fact I say roll on the clause!

What we therefore want is some great results from both Fare and Madina Bafe. From Fare, this is too far north from Boto so would be a standalone reserve. For Madina Bafe this would be good for IAMGOLD as in the future they could leverage their investment in Boto.

Either way we need some strong results to stop the SP drift and show the market we have a decent percentage of what appears to be a large reserve. It has already been pointed out several times that IAMGOLD would prefer it to look less brilliant than we would for obvious reasons, but really hoping and holding out for some strong results preferably earlier in Q3 than later. We may get the results split first Fare as this is completed, then Madina Bafe later in Q3.

We also have the v.early sampling on going in the other Cameroon licenses with some results coming in 2H, but clearly without some results and a change in market opinion it doesn't matter what I, TL or anyone else thinks the potential is worth as we will need funding to qualify the potential in the not too distant future.

DogStar, I appreciate the feedback even if some others are getting a bit shirty. Just need to be careful it isn't hindsight trading as that's easy, but I see from your posts that you come from a strategic position and aren't just posting what people should have done after the fact.

I like Kutzz unfortunately on ORR are in a little (large) bit of a hole. We can't really buy or sell ourselves out of it. We just need to make some decisions, but agree that hold forever isn't really a strategy, albeit it is one I have now done badly with a couple of times.

Here's to seeing the Interims, solid AND funded plans for 2H Bibemi and some v.strong Senala results all in Q3 before we see any raise or dilution!

RAMP RAMP RAMP - Senala results on Monday, IAMGOLD make us an offer on Tuesday and we all sell with a big fat profit on Wednesday. Anyway, worth a dream for a Friday, GLA.

Kutzz, I'm gonna watch the F1 this weekend but kind of expecting the same result. Hope you have a good one.

The last three letters of the title says it all.

Legalwolf, I am going to try and be positive on this clause, but would appreciate other chipping in.

In short, I don't think IAMGOLD would want to be seen to try and be bankrupting a JV partner in any case of wanting a good deal. It's not good for business/image full stop. I also think that if we get to that clause, it would likely mean two things:
1. The spend required is substantially less than $2m per year, otherwise IAMGOLD would be going for the previous clause. In which case lets assume it's $1m, we'd be footing the bill for 85% of $500k which we would 'hopefully be able to find'.
2. Being more positive I really hope that if we met this clause it basically means it's a confirmed asset. Therefore our value would be much higher and therefore we could raise funds or sell our interest.

There are likely a million and one other scenerios which I'm sure others will throw out there, but for me I'd suggest getting to that clause is goodness for us.

Over to the rest of the gang, but that's just my initial thoughts.

Hi Legalwolf. It’s too hard to tell but was looking across the dates.

The fiscal period ending 12/20 should have covered all the work for the 51% earn in. So I don’t think this is in question.

The closest announcement relating to Bibemi drilling for the 90% was 15/12/20. This stated that the rig was due to arrive late December. They then confirmed progress in RNSs throughout 1H. It was also in this RNS that they confirmed they had applied for formalisation of the 51% based on the work completed.

Therefore it’s safe to assume any spend after this is for the 2nd lot of $1.56m for the 90% earn in. What is not clear is if they spent more than $1.56m at this point.

Not an accountant so don’t know if they could have paid upfront out of FY20 finances for any of the 2021 work but when you look at the chart for West Africa/Cameroon spend on the FY20 report, it doesn’t show much spend at all.

My assumption then is that the majority if not all the $1.56m is to come out of the cash position announced at the AGM/FY20 Annual Report. Obviously it’s an assumption not a fact but I’m sure can’t be massively out.

The fact that the company stated they had met the required spend for the 90% earn in, means they have definitely spent $3.12m since 2018 and I believe spent $1.56m in 2021. But cannot be 100% certain.

Looking at previous interims dates we should know anytime from mid Aug to late Sept but expect if things don’t look good they would defer as long as they could to extract every last RNS from ongoing work to bolster the SP before the issuing the report.

Apologies to any and all of there are any inaccuracies above, but think I’ve pulled the right dates and numbers from the right reports. Would prefer for ORR themselves to put out their 2H fiscal and work plan.

DogStarTrader. I hear you. I have too much invested in this. I bought an amount above my target holding specifically to trade with, however the SP has continued to drop. I track them separately in a spreadsheet so I have an avr for my LTH and an avr for my trading pot. Neither look good currently. I think even on a small spike(PLEASE) from here when Senala results come out I will trade these out, even at a loss.

Tradedesk, this is a key question that the board need to come out and answer as basically the first set of results have not pushed the SP/Company value up, and it means we need to deliver the further work in Cameroon with existing funding as in my opinion the Market Cap is too depressed to support any significant raise outside of the 2 x £235k approved at the AGM.

The statement from the annual report reads:
With a significant fund raise completed in October 2020, along with funds from asset realisations and Research and development tax credits of £165k, the Group closed the year with £1.75m of cash. As a result of a rising share price, a further £678k of cash has been received from warrant exercises in early 2021. The Group’s plans for the current exploration season in Cameroon are fully-funded, and with potentially another £1.47m to come from warrant exercises, the Company’s financial position is looking strong to support significant work planned throughout 2021.

06/21 - Confirmed we had met the spend requirements for 90% Bibemi/Wapouzé+3 other lics and required a min spend of $1.56m. Hence we know at least this has been spent since the FY20 numbers shared.

The main issue as I see it is that further drawdown of the existing warrants can't be relied upon as they are at .68p. We have trickles of other income, e.g. the £46k tax credit etc... Hence we have £2.474m - £300k (6mth BAU) - £1.1m($1.56m)= ~£1m left in the bank.

Assuming we have backers for the £235k x 2 securities that were approved at the AGM, I think we should be able to get through 2021. (Forget about warrants at the current SP). We need some positive reactions to Q3 results to get a 2022 plan together.

I honestly thought that the Phase 1 results would have been enough to spark interest, drive the SP up and then wholly expected another placing to fund further drilling for another year but from a substantially higher market cap.

We have Senala results to come, which if strong could provide a bounce, but am expecting IAMGOLD to extend their earn in for 2yrs (another $4m) to gain 70% rather than an offer.

This isn't deramping, but it is speculation and happy for anyone to pull this apart, and help to provide some alternative calcs, but my gut is that it is near reality and can't say I am not concerned despite all the positivity TL is pushing out in the recent interviews.

Senela better be pulling gold bars out of the ground and the sampling in the other licenses needs to be strong. Q3 is going to be one hell of a ride! Still in but nervous (very).

The RNSs don't appear to have the numbers the market wanted to see to have reveresed the downward trend. The board (as you'd expect) seem pleased and we await more detailed information on the next steps.
If you step back and look at it, the grades/widths whilst not amazing in the majority, do give opportunity for an Open Pit mine. With some further analysis and targeted drilling this can be further proved out. Whilst that is one drilling campaign more than I'd have liked to get company value up, we still have a good opportunity and doing some basic numbers think we have the funds to get that done. Maybe another circa 6 mth cycle? i.e. Analysis to pick the best targets, wait for rainy season to end, get drilling done, analyse results, then announce Q4/Q1.

Therefore in the short term, for 2021 majority (if not all) hopes rest on Senala results. IMO, the other Cameroon work is even earlier in the cycle to drive significant company value. I also think that given Boto, IAMGOLD will enact the extra 2yr/$4m earn in for a further 19%(70% total) rather than give us an offer so we could have confidently funded significantly more Cameroon programs than currently. IAMGOLD are in it to make money and will be crunching numbers to work out what is best, and also keeping an eye on our own funding, but my gut is above.
I also expect that our board had hoped the ORR Value would be significantly higher now and would have been planning a raise off the back of it for 2022's campaigns. Now more than ever, Bob and team will need to keep an eye on the purse strings and maximise every $ spent to drive value.

The past 6 months have been very exciting, but the outcome thus far very painful. Looking at the rest of 2021 I unfortunately see more pain and the 'long-term' aspect means years and carries significant risk as significant funding will be required at somepoint in the next 12-24 mths.

What I want to see now (outside of great Senala results) is a financial plan from the team for the next 12 months. My fear is that from the market reaction to the latest results we may not have enough funds or indeed options to fund, to complete all the necessary programs to move our licenses up the value stack from potential to confirmed assets. We don't need to go through the full journey, but we do need to demonstrate enough value to maintain financial stability as the mid-tiers/potential partners will be keeping an eye on both results and finances.

I am looking at my investment in ORR and still seeing a great amount of potential, but as DogStar says 'potential doesn't pay the bills'.

We need strong results from Senala, strong leadership from TL and some financial magic from Bob, positive results out of the sampling in our other licenses and confirmation of a well structured and fully funded 2nd set of drilling for Bibemi. Then we need to sit back for at least 6 months to see what comes from the next batch of drilling. Kutzz, I'm still in for now, but....

Remember, if IAMGOLD wanted to they can opt for the 2yr extension with a further $4m investment ($8m in total across 6 yrs) that would see them earn 70% of the Senala license.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ORR/iamgold-enters-into-option-agreement-on-dalafin-tsq2jci5et0h9cr.html

It will be a question for IAMGOLD as to what delivers more value. Another $4m investment to earn another 19% or leave as is and focus the investment elsewhere. $4m/19% values the license at $21m.

Alternatively, would we as a company take $9m+ to buy out our current stake after this final drilling earns IAMGOLD 51%? We would have 41.65% stake (85% owned by us pre-dulition hence not 49%) as that would fund further work in Cameroon?

Or will the $21m valuation license of the earn in be undervalued based on the gold being found such that it is no brainer for IAMGOLD to invest the $4m and 2yr's time to gain the extra 19%?

Either way there are still a lot of decisions and strategies to be reviewed by IAMGOLD based on the results that come out of Madina Bafe in particular based on the locale to Boto.

Unfortunately, I think that it we need the next steps of IAMGOLDS with Senala and more results from our Cameroon licenses to see any major uplifts in SP.

Time and patience is needed. I am really struggling with this after 6mths and where we are now, but without taking a significant hit, I need to ride this out for at least the next 6 mths and evaluate.

Great stuff Kutzz, glad you had a proper day out. Sounds great. I’ve only ever done Monaco once, but mates have done Spa and Monza back-to-back a couple of times in a camper van. Takes a lot of coaxing with their other halves to get a pass out, but have had a fantastic time. They also say the Monaco classic is fantastic as rather than the glam it’s all about the cars. You have classic F1 cars blasting round and they all assumed they would be taking it easy given a slight slip up and you’ll never replace the car. But no apparently they really go for it and harks back to the old days. I’m sure I’ll get to one in the future and some more races. Keen to see how the Merc/Red Bull battle plays out this season.

Pros and cons of being flat out now, but sounds like you Max’d out your last weekend.

Anyway back to ORR, shame about the top up. Not sure we’re out of the woods yet. Clearly FOMO kicking in so still all about the results and if Cameroon isn’t great we may see us around here until the Fare results give us a bump. But if Bibemi are great then getting a further boost from Fare we could be laughing.

Fingers crossed for some gold pipes!! Enjoy the sport I know I will be. So much so the Mrs and daughter are going out tomorrow afternoon but said they’ll be back with a curry for me and my mate early evening :)

Kutzz, don't see that as a miss, and certainly don't see break even as a win.

Our original reasons to invest and 'hopefully' make money haven't changed.

Just think I'll be following some of Troajan's comments to take profit from some of my lower purchases assuming that as we hope we get back up solidly above 1p.

Come on news!

Nicely timed Troajan.

For the sake of all other investors I am not going to throw anything more in or we might be back down in the .5s in seconds.