The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
There is nothing new in the video but it is good to hear from AB.
Strength of sterling will not be doing our opex cost any favours. Also natural declines across the portfolio will inevitably push that figure up yoy.
He mentions that 2 billion barrel oil in place figure which is pretty meaningless.
Hi Pelle,
At the moment I think this is over-priced because many believe that oil drop is short term and will rebound (I think that will change / is changing). At current price and production it is going to take a very long time to pay off debt.
As I have said I am still hopeful that AK will come good but see this as an H2 story. It seems to me that the market does not trust ENQ on kraken at the moment so an improvement is not priced in.
There will be opportunities on the uptrend. AK@50K, another Magnus, or sustained high oil prices (or better hedges) could be company making. These things are rarely reflected immediately especially in the unloved oil sector so could be a good opportunity to get in.
I share your view on the failure to hedge last year. I was invested at that time and IMHO it was extraordinarily greedy and reckless not to hedge (assuming that they chose not to hedge - someone mentioned restricted by banks but I don't know enough to judge if that is likely). If someone had offered me 80$ per barrel for my "share" of ENQ production at the time I would have bitten their hand off!!!!
Hi gkb47
I am sorry if I have upset you, but I don't see much difference between you and I - we are both posting our opinions and relevant facts. We both have interests in where the SP goes. Presumably you will be a seller when you hit your target, just as I am a buyer when I hit my target.
Thanks for your contributions.
Good night
Hi gkb47,
I would say a few things:
1. I sincerely doubt that anything posted on this BB affects the share price. There are much bigger forces at play.
2. This is a public share discussion board. As far as I am aware it is not restricted to people who own shares in the company. Would it really be a discussion if it were?
3. Instead of moaning, why not present the positive case for investment. I assume that your AGENDA is to convince others that this is a good investemt so that the share price goes up and you make money?
4. if you are genuinely an investor and in this for the long term then why would you be concerned about daily price movements.
5. I have been honest that I am not currently invested but see a potential investment case once the current macro uncertainties work themselves out.
Best regards,
MINERB
PS, thanks for the link.
Hi Jan / E121
$35 is not my prediction, it is BoAML -
"However, the investment bank issued a rather significant caveat. This assessment is based on the assumption that the global economy does not take a turn for the worse. BofAML analysts said that Brent could plunge as low as $35 per barrel if global GDP growth slows from 3.5 percent to 2 percent"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Could-See-Deficit-In-2019.html
And sorry that should have been a drop of 1.5% not 2% as I said.
Many strong NS oilers would survive at these levels. If ENQ were debt free then they would survive $35 oil.
Jan - ENQ are a very interesting company and I have them on my watchlist. They could be investable for me depending on this pan out. At the moment it is a pure oil price play, and as you can tell that feels very risky to me.
China data didn't look too bad this week but can it be trusted?
I guess this is goodbye E121. It has been a pleasure.
The Donald is not one to compromise. Just look at his beautiful shutdown. He has conveniently stopped mentioning the DOW since it stopped going his way. All he cares about is his base. And they like a big strong Donald.
Hi Pelle,
Not sure if it was posted up here but I read something recently that buyers were not getting involved in hedging but producers were very keen to hedge. Maybe ENQ hedged as much as they could find a buyer for?
I can't find the article now annoyingly.
Anneleen Knutsen is off to another field.
Anyone see any other candidates? It would have been good if they could have maintained approx 4000bbks/day but that is out the window now. We are at 55 days since last offload I think.
Master,
18-Jan-19 Buy Trade Notifier Information for EnQuest
Amjad Bseisu 19.4 GBX 1,907,722 154345944
As you can see from the holding - 154345944 - AB and Double A are treated as AB's shares because of his control of Double A
All IMHO
This was all discussed last Friday
Good Morning Gkb47,
You said more or less the same thing in your last post I think.
The trend is your friend.
The first target is 3p away. All it will take at this price is oil dropping another 5% - I'm not sure many would bet against that scenario.
All IMHO
Likely to be some POO volatility going in to API tonight and EIA Thursday. With the new year rally coming to an end yesterday I think it's possible POO will drift down unless the numbers give a clear direction.
I think Trump is willing to wreck the world economy to punish china. America First. He will get some cheap fuel and have capacity to get rid of the waivers on Iran. Win, Win, Win.