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Pelle,
Output expectations at kraken are lower than when it was agreed. It's pretty obvious that OPEC per unit will be higher if we are producing fewer units.
How have you worked out 20$ OPEC? Seems to just be plucked from the air to suit your argument?
Pelle, L3,
What decline rates have you factored into your production numbers. Are you assuming we will get up to 35k plateau with DC4 and be in the mid 20k in 5 years?
I'm not saying that is unreasonable but with such a small increase anticipated for DC4 and the declines we have seen so far on the other wells I am not confident that we will see 30k for a sustained period.
Of course it could just be a fixable FPSO problem, but the noises coming from the big boys around reserves downgrades make me think it is a reservoir problem. Maybe they have done some damage running with under voidage last year?
Hi Pelle, I think your opex for kraken may be too optimistic. I believe it is $15 at 50k. A large part of this will be fixed costs so I think it is reasonable to pro rate for your projected daily production.
At UNIT opex of $25 The OZ loan will not be repaid in the 5 years.
Good morning E121,
It sounds like you are really talking about faith. Faith is belief without reason and very likely to lose you money. It is certainly not something to boast about unless you want thinking people to lose all respect for you. I have done my research and feel that this company is likely to underperform. I have been long here previously and may be again if the facts change my opinion (AK, POO).
Hi L3,
I like Miser B!
I'm raising a concern, it's really up to everyone else to do their own research.
It's relatively simple for someone with a long interest to challenge this opinion. My bet is that they won't and that is more telling than my figures would be!
Pelle,
Should but probably won't.
You haven't answered when we will receive any money from the 75%?
How much FCF will we have generated in the last 2 months? How much will we have spent on drilling wells which are apparently not going to add any additional barrels per day based on 2018 production?
OPS UPDATE COULD LAND AT ANY TIME.
rig count data at 1800 today.
I wouldn't want to be long over the weekend
When do we actually start receiving any of the FCF from the 75%?
Surely the ops update is going to look pretty bad if the money is not coming in and we have big declines across the rest of the portfolio...
Pelle,
Your numbers look very tight considering we are hovering around your assumed price. I guess the answer to my question is that we are very exposed to any Brent weakness. Given that ENQs finances are so complicated I wouldn't be surprised if some of the BB spreadsheet are missing something.
Another important point raised today is depletion. Where is reserves replacement coming From? We certainly can't afford to do another deal at these prices (SP and POO). The 20% growth this year is great but it is looking like there will be a decline next year? Add to that potential downgrades at kraken?
Hi Pelle,
Yes the Magnus deal has allowed us to stay in business....but we have had to pay for that. The OZ loan will end up costing us a lot more than expected if oil stays low. We have also lost the confidence of the institutions who wanted to see debt reduction.
If POO stays at these levels we are a zombie company IMHO
We couldn't pay our debts as they came due last year without borrowing. ENQ need to start proving they can deliver. If they can do that my shorts are burned and the optimism of pelle etc. Will see the rewards.
Kraken - what do you think will be a good outcome for the next tanker? 13 days would take you to 40k/day average which you suggest we might be at now from your chats with IR. will you be disappointed if this doesn't happen?
Rig count today could be interesting. If there is no reduction I think we will be seeing the 50's PoO again. Best case for me is that the Saudis keep giving up market share as fast as shale can replace it. With demand dropping that is probably not going to cut it.
$70+ is pie in the sky in the next few months IMHO. The world is talking itself into a recession.
Has anyone re-done the numbers with the production numbers we think kraken is at? And realised oil price in the mid fifties?
Mid 20s seems to be our average production over the last 2 months at Krak.
How sensitive are we to POO, and do you think we will have to give up more of our WI for an OZ style cash injection again? H2 is a I concern to me because our hedges (if we have any yet) wil be much lower than 1st quarter, and we will have paid out for the DC4 drill by then presumably meaning that we won't have had much time to get the kitty replenished before debt repayment is die