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Bobster,
I think the best time to ask the question is after the funding structure announcement at the end of April.
This will eliminate the biggest risk and unknown factor in valuing this share, and give people here, brokers etc, a chance to intelligently model few scenarios.
Until then, we all speculate.
My speculation (until we know more), assuming CF gets 3b all debt, and the 4-600 no more than 1 bil share dilution, will be before 2023.
IMO
M
Hi Alan,
I would look at it in a different way, and, if it makes financial sense for you on a say 'worst case' level, anything above is the icing on the cake.
I would not start with 'ideal' as my bottom line, as it is likely to end in disappointment, and we lost AndyGolf on this absolute basis.
Current shares 4.5b + conversions say 1.5 = 6.
If we get say 2 b dilution, or equivalent of 30% in royalty dilution .... if from 2024 we pay divis of $800m / year = $10 cents / share, or 7-8 pence / share. Yield 5-7%, say divi x 15 (worst case again) = SP 1 pound...
Fast fwd, 2028-29, divis $2.8b/yr = GBP 2b / year = over 20 pence / share ... x 15 = ... is this enough? if not, yes, your expectations are a bit high.
If this is enough ... anything better is great.
IMO
M
It is unlikely that Cf would pxxx off the LG to insult them.
This is straight business.
And, it is his job and duty to listen and evaluate a new credible offer, which he did.
The LG knows this, this is happening 100 times a a year, some deal get closed, some delayed, then closed, some deals are lost. So, if something goes wrong with the new offer, you don't want to burn your bridges ...
And yes, this is likely a player from the current LG circle approached us, they may I figured out that the risk for them is OK, and other players area too slow etc, they may have worked out that a 6-7% is a decent return, they will want that 'packaged' in case they want to sell it further etc. Whom knows ... But from the lending Group, JPM seems to fit the bill. And yes, they have $3b...
And I see Gina, ADM, other to be involved in the 4-600m equation (IF we still need it front end... flexibility in the deal is great, I am sure the deal will be slightly more expensive but we can pay that off in few months of production). And no super-dilution from the super sausage ...
IMO
M
Verde, Could be.
But also could be JPM (they were part of the LG already, and likely are more up to speed on everything).
To be seen...
M
GK,
One side effect .... 11.7% shorted, right?
With this momentum now, this is highly unlikely to go down from 19p. And with a bit of clarify on the structure and good news, end of April will help send few people to the stone age ... ohh, I forgot to weep...
Will be interesting what end of April short position will be...
To be seen, the story continues ...
M
Myo, yes, agreed. Just making my point, but barking at the wrong door.
GK, brilliant post.
Alice, I build the bench overlooking Woodsmith, and we can sit down and enjoy the view ... any tea and cakes?
M
LOL - if CF reads this: now that I sang you praise in the middle of the Wolfpack, I hope we do get a deal and get it over the line ... not for my sake, but for our $ invested here sake... and the world ...
M
Yes Gadzuric, it is a complete failure, can't agree more.
But it is your failure as investor to do your DD and understand a speculative mining share from AIMs.
Why did you invest?
And let's face it, 90% of the fairytale story to build a mine and feed the world (and it is a fairytale story ... how many of us have the opportunity to make a difference for a better world whilst of course get rewarded for our investments?..), is around CF and 10% with actually the mine.
CF the financier guru, with a proven track record, started this fairytale - without him, we would not be here today.
Again, we are trusting HIM to get this over the line, it is his project, his baby, and yes, his family fortune / money invested here as well (well, and next to his money, a little bit of my money too, and yours here ...).
I am not surprised he is coming up with solutions, options ... this is exactly what he did in his past life as Investment Banker ... remember Fortescue? They were going no where until he helped put a finance package for them. He is not re-inventing the wheel, or as new entrepreneur try to 'discover' how the world of finance works ... he pretty much created the rules for it in AUS!
So, give the guy a bit of credit, stop bashing the BOD .... at least until they fail to deliver and we are getting the shares printed on toilet paper (but if you think this is the case, feel free to sell).
Saying this ... let's wait for the full details before we celebrate too much, and more importantly, to see the completed mine!
IMO
M
What I think is great news:
* funding seems to be close to being 'in the bag'. sorry new sayers, that is what it is. (SL, you have a bike, right?... use it.)
* I am sure CF will keep both discussions open - nothing is done until it is all done, and signed. He knows that.
* the 4-600 still needs to be sorted out, but may be front or back ended. May or may not still involve some dilution (and so I am still setting my personal expectations at 1-2 bil shares).
We will not know the details until the aimed end of April timeline. But, would be good if they share any updates along the way or sooner, will buy the BOD some credits vs the mess over the past year.
But, we are starting to move in the right direction, COMMUNICATING (well done CF!), and constructing the mine!
M
NB- my guess is similar, any potential leak was not from SM.
Clearly the majority trust the BOD.
Only a handful here would consider to nominate one single Director to represent PIs, a lot watered down view to replacing the BOD.
Challenging to want better or different but not be bothered to take any action.
If this is going south, we are to blame.
But,.... Let's see what is coming up next.
IMO
M
well speedy,
if you have these type of conversation with a tea lady around in the room, then you don't belong in the room.
Trust me on this.
But, I agree - a leak is unlikely.
M
PS - well done to those whom traded last summer peak and seen the shxxt coming. Respect! (expect those whom then re-invested in idiotic stocks...).
This is a strange one - volumes not huge.
Drop, significant.
Buys / sells, not a million miles apart.
So what the hell caused it?
After few beers, I am thinking:
* the market is drunk.... hoops, I'm not there to catch up to this level yet, therefore, unlikely.
* Computer says no ... not sure, this is a 50-50 call
* Chesh got the trends wrong ... unlikely, so, call a friend... Chesh?.. no, he just topped up (btw, i did last month ...).
I am narrowing down my answer to:
- we are about to make a deal for the 4-600m, and as we know, this would be based on some dilution.
- the counterparty knows that this will be based on a prior day / x date SP, therefore sold a couple of mil shares to trigger it. could be, will cheese off CF big time, but ... whom knows.
Or, I should stay with my beers and we will find out soon ...
Either way, the day when this is 1 pound, no one can say this was easy money, it involves a lot of sweat actually ....
OK, back to my beer now.
M
PS - no, I am not selling mine, Mr Money grubber...
Hi duracell, yes, but the volumes are not high enough to explain it.
Well, it is what it is.
Going to try my new ski helmet on ... maybe that will make a difference ... lol
M
is it suspended?
Seems to show 16.29 price and frozen ... on IG
M
and it will back to 19 something within the hour ...
just watch it ...
M
What the xxx happening to the SP?
Leaky leaks again....
Yes - going to buy a yo-yo...
I just hope it has a strong enough line.
M
I am not making excuses for anyone.
And I said before, if he fails at his 'forte' of funding, his sell by date day is up.
But you clearly don't understand complexities and in what you actually invested here ... You assume a walk in the park fairytale, either by not doing enough research in mining and start ups before you invested a penny here, or maybe having no experience or understanding of the funding.
Good luck.
To you, and to me, and everyone really.
M
Message Wed 11.27:
To mrRRrrrrr
From my post Mon 9.31.
You can interpret CF's latest statement as you wish, or be ignorant and bring up old material 'as flash news'....
M
Mon 9.31:
Just trying to help here, and give the hints:
This is what we should see next - extract from the call in Jan:
"Should we need to, there is the opportunity to slow down development, but we, obviously, don't want to do that because we think that, obviously, undermines value potentially. So I think that's the best guidance we want to give at the moment because we don't want to necessarily put a time line and a deadline on things. But what we have, as you can see, is liquidity that will take us into the second quarter, and the intent is that we would be finalizing the $400 million to $600 million off the back of the committed debt finance positions to enable us to move to a financial close later in the year.'
There is one message from CF, above, but I guess people will read it in 5 different ways and different 'expecting this or that'. I recommend you slow down when you read it, maybe read it twice, then hopefully the message clicks.
DYOR.
M
Scotty,
I have Supertwxxxt filtered, he is in the same bucket with Skier1 and the like.
But, he is cunning in trying to regurgitate the same position, to be read every day, with his aim to push SP down and damage ST2 if he can, so he can buy cheaper and recover the losses he is making elsewhere as the 'smart investor' sharing advice.
I am reading replies to what I am sure is complete garbage .... Feel sorry for him, his wife left, dog committed suicide, neighbours moved, and he talked to the smart guy in the mirror and the two have a great argument (sometime overspilling to the only audience that can't escape him.... this board).
But, well done for counter his aberrations.
M