Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Guidelines = different meaning to Deadlines.
Target date = different to Deadlines.
Go figure out, and also see and actually 'listen' to what CF said in the last call.
You are not doing your own research, and skip-read information, and make assumptions as 'statements'.
BTW, ST2 will NOT be closed fully by end of Q2 - but will effectively be 'in place'. And the 4-600m raise can not happen without the rest being agreed. Hence we add one front end complexity and 'demand' overnight solutions (demand to whom? yourself maybe, but not to anyone else...)
M
Hi Myo,
If I was in CF' shoes today:
IF we have bad news for the SH, I would announce it this week, after the Brexit vote. 2 reasons:
Initially will be buried by the size of the Brexit coverage (OK, not so good).
But this will give ammunitions to both parties to point fingers to each other about not supporting SM and what they would if they were in power.
If you have GOOD news, although not fully ready to announce, that can wait a bit later (good news is good news, any day, but should not be announced whilst the Country and media are dealing with Brexit crisis... few will notice it).
IMO
M
CliffEdge,
Don't we all...
Let's hope CF comes home with the golden eggs by Easter.... (well, we missed Christmas, hope next event is not missed).
Imagine him as the Golden Goose? lol.
M
Regarding this pool (Wed 11.12 post) to see if we, PIs, want to nominate a Director to the board to represent the PIs interests.
Received 5 votes.
Therefore I assume that the half a dozen desires are not a general feeling among PIs reading this, and the majority are happy with the composition of the BOD and trust them to look after our interests. Also, as no one else ever seems to have challenged this and ask for BOD nominations (maybe due to complacency), this topic should be closed.
As such, I would say well done to the BOD for their performance so far, ... and looking forward to a successful ST2 outcome shortly!!!
... well, we do reserve the right to come back to this statement if all goes South ...
Regards,
M
NB - yes, the few 'bashers' should can notice that they are in minority.
Avocet, no one knows here what the dilution will be, if any.
Even if, as you say, worst case extra 4 b shares= 10 b total.
2023 7 b market cap= 70 pence a share.... 250% return on today's price. Or, you get better return elsewhere, say premium bonds?....
2028 could be 15 pence a share divi... 5%.... SP could be 6 pounds?
Even with 10 b shares, we are ok once the mine is build. So, what is your problem? Want more? Greed?
Get a perspective ....
IMO
Nisan, why are you sad?
Read the posts over the past few days and you realise we got what we always anted.
What now, want freebies from the gov for the local area? Above the rest of the country? Or just like to moan...
M
Hi BF,
Yes, the story is good.
As always, developing the strategy is fun and really the easy part.
Execution is the tough one.
If it goes half way on the design lines, we are laughing all the way to the bank. More than that, we buy the bank. But can be also less than that (and I understand why some people feel scared ... but then, knowing this is a development company coming from AIMs recently, did you not do your own research to understand the risks and path that needs to be followed?...).
So far, so good.
If it was not for the MTS surprise, we would be all be laughing by now. But yet again, all the experts are saying to expect time and cost to go over at some point in a mining project, so why did we assume we are immune?
Let's hope the rest of the story unfolds as we hope it will.
IMO
M
Thorpe,
My views (and no one has to follow me btw):
1) today 20p. Still some risk with Funding, CF is not a magician, so something may still go wrong (hence don't bet all you have on one horse, don't mortgage the house and kids for a quick win, consider what you can afford to lose ... saying this, the CEO of INEOS will lough at me, is this exactly what he said he did some 8-10 years ago? and 15 BILLIONS later he argues with SM about fracking rights, good for him!).
But, CF is trying to replicate what he did in his professional life as Investment Banker (different to 'Banker' whom lend money, Inv. Bankers source funding solutions for clients, hence they make a fortune in the City). One of his better known solution was for a company called Fortescue, and the investment return in 10 years is > 400 times.
Also, CF has a vested interest by having 125m shares here = works for all, or bust for all. His $ is a lot higher than mine invested here, actually, higher than any of us for sure. And so far, he delivered.
2) After ST2, if no more than 1 Bil shares dilution (everyone expects some), likely SP will go up quite e bit, and we may have the 40p again very shortly. PIs, sentiment up, risk down, etc.
- If you buy then, you are looking to roughly double your money (and a bit) to 2023 if we then are worth 7 Bil, 1 pound a share ... considering that there is still construction risk, is a good return but not spectacular.
- if you have shares now at 20p, you are looking at x4 return by 2023 (assuming the 7 B MC). Higher return, but higher risk. If you think CF and the BOD can sort out the funding as they said they will, for me is an attractive proposition.
3) 2024, 13m tonnes / year. CF said he will refinance, to enable Divis, on cash flow or around $800m. Sure, some debt repayments, maybe we get GBP350m Divi ... this is 5 pence / share. Divi to SP ratio is 5-7%, so in theory, SP 1.50 - 2.00. until 2027-8
4) Fast forward 2028-29. 20m tonnes. Cash flow for Divis, can be say 1.5Bil. This is 20 pence / share.
Divi to SP 5-7%, so ... SP could be .... spectacular. But, let's not go in dreamland, and stay with a lower expectation threshold, which, if met, will more than satisfy all of us.... any more than this, I get my second Bentley.
5) Premium bonds ... do they pay inflation? no ... so, not very good. But, safer, and is asset diversification, so no complaints (just that I will invest in other bonds / gilts myself). I still have 25 pounds of Premium bonds (lol).
6) DYOR. Don't bet what you can't afford to lose one one investment - but, each to its own. But at least make your decision on informed basis, understand potential outcomes, and don't cry if you lose, of miss out, whilst don't forget to share and help others if successful (at least with some time and advice).
IMO,
M
I try ti tie it to known, mentioned numbers.
In the annual report the Remuneration committee provided explanation to target to be reached and very stretched targets and rewards.
(I think page 90-something).
so the BOD remuneration committee is considering a high reward for CEO and CFO if Market Cap is GBP7 mil in 2023.
We have 4.5b shares, add conversions 1.5 = 6 bil.
Let's say we get another 1 B share dilution with this 4-600m.
Total shares = 7 bil.
What is then the Share Price? ... simple maths .. GBP7 / 7 shares = 1 Pound party.
If we get less than 1 Bil shares dilution at ST2, this party will start sooner.
But, as soon as ST2 is announced, on the above lines, SP will jump and will grow linear until 2023!
IMO
M
rrrrhhhhh
May 2018 - Project on time.
But you misrepresent 'status' with older statements made before, when they were not aware of the MTS scope change.
So, you are bending facts..
Shue off.
M
To mrRRrrrrr
From my post Mon 9.31.
You can interpret CF's latest statement as you wish, or be ignorant and bring up old material 'as flash news'....
M
Mon 9.31:
Just trying to help here, and give the hints:
This is what we should see next - extract from the call in Jan:
"Should we need to, there is the opportunity to slow down development, but we, obviously, don't want to do that because we think that, obviously, undermines value potentially. So I think that's the best guidance we want to give at the moment because we don't want to necessarily put a time line and a deadline on things. But what we have, as you can see, is liquidity that will take us into the second quarter, and the intent is that we would be finalizing the $400 million to $600 million off the back of the committed debt finance positions to enable us to move to a financial close later in the year.'
There is one message from CF, above, but I guess people will read it in 5 different ways and different 'expecting this or that'. I recommend you slow down when you read it, maybe read it twice, then hopefully the message clicks.
DYOR.
M
I can see that we are bashing the BOD left, right, and ... then we do it again, saying they are not representing our interests.
As such, with the AGM coming, WE (PIs) whom hold the majority of shares, could nominate one or more Directors to the Board and stop being complacent whilst we are moaning....
Therefore - do we want to nominate? if not, we can close the 'moaning' about them.
PS - but do not expect a Director to come and comment on this board.... but, at least we know our interests are heard and represented.
If PIs here want to nominate, recommend this. If we don't get a decent number of ticks, then we know the answer...
M
Yes - but would the share deal have to go to a special resolution to be voted by the majority / articles of association would list what is required (sorry, did not read the SM Articles ... my fault, my bad research ...). Considering that we are 80% PI owned ... I don't see a crap deal going through.
Thanks
M
Avocet,
I think that you will find that the BOD of flybe had the shareholders backing, for THOSE (the majority) that want to sell. Still need to go to SH approval.
If I was a shareholder in Flybe, and DID NOT want to sell, I could have kept my shares.
Let me do it a different way - any lawyer here or capital markets financier that can help with this?
It may just be me ....
The question is:
Takeover bid, I have shares on company x - can I be forced to sell by BOD / buyer?
Thank you for any knowledge contributor happy to explain.
M
Avocet - now you started me ...
the PI got offered a penny ...
Did they HAVE TO sell? No, of course. They can continue to keep the shares, but will be less liquid (and as not being listed, you can't have them in an ISA, but OK for SIPP, share account etc.).
The point is - it is an offer to treat: you don't have to accept it, and the other party can't force it on you.
Your choice ...
M
Avocet, I do understand that Flybe was taken over for a penny ... yes, a company losing cash from trading.
I also heard of some other companies, where shall I start? ... and shareholders got Zero, because their respective trading and future outlook was less than bleak.
I also heard to Biotechs, that, like us, ended up with more dilution as they needed cash. Not long ago, an old lady left as inheritance a small envelope containing 100 Abbot Labs shares from 50 years ago. she paid for them 2 weeks wages, and forgot them. $9.5m later, and after some 10,000 dilution since then, the granddaughter is not complaining about it...
You can not compare a newspaper headline, especially for a trading company that just can't be profitable, to a development company with a disruptive product. What, are you comparing Polyhalite future with VHS tapes? ... good luck mate. You may have invested in the wrong industry here, the looser list is next door.
(But, we still need to see the results of the funding... either way, SM has a bright future, likely to be a Netflix / Amazon in their industry).. my opinion.
IMO
M
avocet, but I mean that Capital raise is = equity raise. or I am losing the plot? ... sorry, please correct me if i am wrong.
There is likely to be a level of degree of dilution, but to be seen what CF is sorting out.
M
Rich,
You seem a genuine shareholder that care.
I was thinking deeper (I know, dangerous ..) of what we can do.
I think, my opinion, that we can each try constructively void the 'extreme' posters, whilst ensuring that we hear both sides (it is important).
So we each can contribute a little here, in our own way, with different points of view, research etc.
Until ST2 is done and SP is on the way up, I think this is the best action we can take. And the best action not to take, is selling (unless you feel that you should sell, but then sell and go away and not bang on about it like a broken record).
IMO
M
Rich, also - no one can force you, or me, to sell our shares.
Even in a takeover situation, they can't just take it and pay whatever they are offering. We must want to sell and accept the offer. They may buy enough to control it even to take it private, but we can still hold our shares in it (just that they are less liquid).
But true, the big boys will want SM shares soon - if not part of any 4-600m funding, they must buy it from current holders.
Current holders will sell ... when their price is considered attractive.
Some here will sell at 30p, some at 50p, some hold for 1 or 2 pounds, and some will leave them in their pension pots for the next 30-40 years, or kids ISAs etc. Currently the market says 19.5 is the floor, so clearly some still sell at this level, although small volumes.
The point being - PIs have a selling point more inclined towards the 'needs of today', or the 'feeling'... and the latter is manipulated by fear and ....chuck in a bone ... will it bite? for some, yes. for some, no.
But there is no harm in having more IIs, if anything, I think it is much better for the company and holding the BOD more accountable.
IMO
M
Rich,
Best way, sit tight. I do.
You have the likes of L&G whom do a deal from Capital (large chunks are not sold / bought on the exchange open market, are done office to office).
Large IIs like pension funds are not invested yet as the stage of the company development does not fit their investment criteria - is still has risk, some do not invest in development companies, some only in cash positive entities, etc.
As soon as stage 2 is done, one large risk is materially reduced (i.e. funding), and some will start coming in. Then it is still construction risk, and building a deep shaft mine is not 'gone fishing in a boat' exercise. As soon as we reach the Polyhalite deposit and MTS is materially done, then risks pretty much evaporates and prices are substantially up.
Consider that a large investment manager wants 10% a year growth is a safer company (for a bonus) versus 200-400% gamble and risk to get either a medal or get fired.
But, as soon as we make profits and will do so for 100%, especially pension funds will be keen even if the return s 5-7%/ year.
I guess there are few IIs talking to SM to bet in when ST2 is done, especially around this 4-600m, competing for a piece of the cake with Gina, and other 'completion capital' partners, so CF has options. We will see.
Best thing to do for now to deflect speculators, held yours (as I hold mine). Ignore SL and de-rampers. This share is 80% PI owned, so some shooters etc. try to publish here, as the main SM share chat board, a lot of skewed, regurgitated stories. DYOR.
IMO
M