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FFC,
Thanks for sharing.
This is a great link to what seems to be a genuine correspondence with the company IR.
In my view, this is what I thought it is happening.
We are all waiting to see and hear of the 'deal', hopefully in the next week (but could slip into May ...).
M
CF has a significant amount of shares in the company, so does the Chairman.
They will not freely go for dilution (would you?).
Saying this, and even if we double the current shares from 4.5B and add 4-5b, plus CBs already out, adding (for simplicity) to 10b shares, it still has an attractive return (just build the mine!).
But, I do not expect NIL extra shares .... it will not happen (IMO) and you end up disappointed. There will be some extra shares, just think of the $600m extra funding required.
The magical Q is how many ....
M
Hi JR,
I agree that we, and the City, would expect at least an update by the end of April, as promised by CJ.
Communication is key to keep, or as some would say, re-gain, credibility and trust.
Ideally this is the ST2 signed, or at least agreed, and in the worst case an indication of where we are , delay reason and expected completion (i.e. it could slip into May ... more than that would be an issue, unless they get some short term finance for the next 3-6 months cash flows).
Don't forget the forward looking statement disclosure: all info is 'guidance' on what the management think at that point in time based on the information available at that point in time, and things can change and you should not make investment decisions based on it. etc. etc.
CF guidance on what they see is 'towards end of April' and updates will be issued.
I am sure that an update will be issued as soon as they know for sure of any slippage in dates or deal issues, but let's hope that 'fairly certain' translates into 'get over the line' in April.
In my little world, even before the MTS $ issue last year, I always thought that we will have another 2B shares at some point, totalling 8.
With this $600m issue (depending how CF will fund it), I guess we end up including CBs etc towards 10B, which is fine for my financial estimates.... assuming construction etc goes to plan.
*Consider that if we add in this scenario 4B shares.. at 20p = GBP 800m, or just over $1b... so we would only need $2.5 external funding.
As my simple valuation, 2024 EBITDA $1b, we should be able to pay GBP500m Divi = / number of shares ... x 20 for 5% yield = SP. Even if you cut the Divi to GBP300 ... and have 10 B shares, assuming all going to plan, .... may deliver a nice surprise.
IMO - not 'ramping' (we still have ST2 to go over first ...), but, then it could be a nice investment return.
My view. My money (not a shabby amount). My decision. If all goes well, great. If not, I will have a long chat with the guy in the mirror and try to learn from this more, and I gone in SXX with an open mind.
M
Scotsman
grow up.
M
So, you are saying, that in case of ST2 failing, the BOD will sell for 1 penny the asset so someone else will benefit, they get a back hander and get rich, and SH get shafted? ... These are very serious accusations, without one micron of proof...
Also, you are using direct SLANDER against Gina, without any proof - I hope that she will sue the heck out of you for this. This is less than 'cheap'. And if my understanding is right, she did not steal from anyone her initial fortune ... go read and educate yourself (or better said, find another lie to sell).
Finally, your 7 figures stated holder - is his in you dream, or you play, as usual, for the audience? .. Sorry mate, you lost all your street cred here.
We will see what comes out shortly, one way or another.... Intriguing that you are not challenging the numbers and baseline of a scenario I shared, you choose instead to find deviations and fabrications. Yep, your reputations of backstabber holds....
You are becoming supersausage now.
GK,
I sense your undertone of negativity and cleverly push to paint a negative picture. One you buy back in, you change your tune ...
If SM sells the asset and has 1 bil in the bank, what do you think it will do with it? Let me help you - we elect a BOD as shareholders, then they will either invest in something that has potential to grow, or return the money to the SH.
But you know this already ...
M
John,
My views:
We have shares in issue + CBs 6Bil.
Add, worst case 2 (TWO) Billion to cover the AF $600m.
Then add, say 2 Bil more CBs as part of ST2.
New total = 10 Bil shares.
Market cap at production GBP7 Bil, or 70 pence.
Today, 20 p.
Only a 250% return ... in 3-4 years. with potential for much better...I know ... not everyone is pleased.
ST2 done, discount to Production market cap should give a 60% of NPV, or GBP4bil.
OK, let's say 40% ... GBP 2.8. - 3B
Considering CBs, SP GBP3 / 10 bil = we should see 30 pence / share in few weeks time.
This is after the 'massive dilution' that wipes out PIs, right?
IF you do not think ST2 is coming, then you should not be here... let's face it, what will happen then? I guess:
* we are running out of cash, but still have an asset half-build, with significant $ future value.
* we put the asset at auction - someone WILL pay GBP 1 Bil for it, right? this means we get our current 20 p / share, feel sorry for ourselves, invest in the buyer if we want.
* CF will be in the same boat as us = we all lose (somehow I do not see him as the 'loser' type, do you?).
Although a binary option, the probability in my own view (and this is NOT investment advice to anyone) that ST2 is coming stands at better than 50-50. On the down side, I end up getting my current 20p / share back (but likely a bit more, I guess few buyers will form a tie disorderly que ... lol).
Do your own research
Do not invest what you can not afford to lose
Do not invest, or sell, on comments from a board like this
Have your strategy and if you believe in it, follow through and don't panic on noise.
If you make a fortune - well done, please share advice as I would like to pick up knowledge, and don't forget to be a good samaritan and help others.
If you lose a fortune - ask the guy, or lady, in the mirror, why?.
IMO
M
I guess there is also a 500k buyer ...
SL / LL, or whatever you call yourself today....
A bank like a JPM does mot 'buy' mines.... But this was known to you.
They are in the business of financing.
And should they dig behind ONE client, they are done, no one will deal with them ever again. So before you through mud at reputable companies like JPM,, consider the low moral standards you are showing....
But you know this. And you just come back here with the most imbecilic arguments... Yes, you are a loser,, so get lost.
Roulette / Prevost,
If misread, I apologies.
But this is how it comes to mind ...
M
Prevost,
Why you are making up 'extract from MF', what is your motive? Have you read the article? these are your words ... not theirs.
And, do you actually read the rubbish these guys are publishing?
By the way, anyone thinking that no funding = brilliant impact? ... so, what you are adding new?
M
Sirius said the new proposal "potentially offers a more flexible and attractive solution"
PAAA, you are the master of this - could I ask on a potential meaning?
* Could (speculation) this mean that one element of the funding be made up of a high yield bond, with:
1. 10 years, potentially convertible at the end.
2. with a 5 years redeemable break point.
As example, the Company can decide to redeem in full in 5 years' time, if not, will continue for another 5 years and the conversion being the SP at at the 5 year's break date.
This could make it attractive to investors: it is high yield, could be cashed after 5 years, and it may also be extended to 10 years with an end conversion potential.
Any thoughts? I am trying to figure out what 'flexible' would mean from the above statement.
Thanks
M
Buy low, sell high ... it is the name of the game, right?
The only difference is shananigans whom talk up a share (whilst they are selling), then talk it down to they buy it. Worst case is the supersausage clan, and he not very good at it .... just stay aware.
But, if this is how they make a living, would you not try to maximise your OWN profit, regardless of some faceless chat board names positions?
This is reality - just be aware, don't believe these boards, DYOR.
You must have a strategy - stick to it.
M
My read (and please correct me) is that shares out on loan just got canned... so someone is reducing the short position by a significant amount.
For the rest of us:
* traders - will continue to buy / sell etc.
* Long term holders - we dd not make any money today, it is just confirmation that we are likely to see our more-than-decent returns in few years' time, and a lot less likely that we will suffer losses.
* Shorters = checking their mortgage balances to ensure they have enough equity left to cover the cash calls from IG today...
* Supersausage = remains a loser. Glad he is not on this board anymore (or so we hope, but now I think he is in hiding ...).
IMO.
M
Avocet, I think this is going to force the hand of SM to announce something soon.
3 consecutive days of significant SP rise ... something is up.
At least, this seems to be on the good side!
(by the way, I am sure that your hearts bleed for some poor guys here that sold out ... and made a lot of noise about it ...)
Regarding 'Total loss'
IMO
Large companies that failed across the whole spectrum of industries, FMCG Parmalat, Energy Enron, Tech .. long list just say Worldcom or Nokia, banks .. a longer list say Lehman Bro', industry Carrilion etc. All failed because they had MASSIVE hidden debts. So any other investment made in the market is in companies with debt.
SM = has ZERO practical debt (as long as we pay the interest for the CBs)
IF ST2 is not happening as worst, worst case ... what do you think will happen? The BOD has a DUTY to SHs, not to 'do good and create employment'.... Then SM will be put up for sale, large deposit of polyhalite, half build mine, NO DEBT. and yes, the BOD may not have a job after the sale.
I guess we will get the GBP1.5 mil for it (about 40p) at an auction. Just think of 1 buyer, BHP - will they continue to build a 20mt / yr mine in Canada for $12b, of buy is, finance it through cheap debt for them, or buy 2omt/yr polyhalite? I guess even ICL will fancy a buy ... in return for 100 years of a fortune / year ...
Even if it not 1.5b, it will at least pay 0.8b which is 20p / share, current market cap.
So, what loss?
C'mmon CF, finalise the funding and build the mine, then we are all super-happy (well, less Casaxxx, S-Loser etc ... but that is life, you can't please everyone ...lol)
M
"As I keep repeating I am invested though only at levels where I could financially and emotionally bear a total loss."
Maybe is just me, but .... you only invest where you could bear a total loss....
Let me guess, you are the 'financial guru', whom is only prepared to invest is some investments that may give you 100% losses, but not in others ...?
So by definition, you are not invested in anything other than Premium bonds.
Well, not sure if there is anything you add here that could be of any interest to me, so you stay on my filter list. Clearly you are the high executive of the City that everyone is following ... just not me.
PS - I would have thought that an expert would say something half-smart, like, don't invest more than x% of my portfolio in a company, or no more than y% in Developing company etc.
1/11 is 9 pence...
Yield 5%, so x20 = gbp 1.80 / share.....
When?.... I guess 2024 ish.
So, worst case.... Is this ENOUGH? If not, you always can sell now and invest elsewhere...
My point, medium to long term, great value. We just need to build it. And before that, finance it... Tick Tock...
M
Hi Foster,
IMO, as I shared before how I look at it (and no one has to copy me or believe me, DYOR).
I think we need to think:
Current 4.5 B shares.
Add another 1.5B Bond conversions.
Then add another 1-2 B further dilution. Call is 2b.
Total future shares = 7-8 B, call it 8B.
2023 Market Cap around GBP 7 Bil (as targeted in the Remuneration stretched targets report, which also tie with NPV 70% at that time).
SP? = would be close to 1 pound.
2028/9. Market Cap ... a lot higher. Let's look at it this way, the company view is that by then they can support Dividends of $2.8b = GBP 2 B. = this is some 25 pence / share.
Divi yield 5-7% ..... SP is 25 pence x 20 (say) .... but we get carried away.
Looking from a different angle: Current SP 20p. In 4 years this can pay 5-10 pence / share. In 10 years, can pay 25 pence / share ... So If I put in 10k now, I get an annual Divi of more than I put in (but only for the next 100 years, which seems to be a problem for some)...
My advice = manage your expectations. If it is HALF the above, this is still OK for you? If yes, then ... great. Anything extra is ski chalet and the 2nd Bentley...
Alternative is Premium bonds or whatever people want to invest in...
IMO
M