Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
MR.dt
I assume this in 2bil shares at 20p.
If the rest is just debt, WE ARE FLyING!!!!!!!
And wow, Gina puts more money in! What a vote of confidence!!!!!!!!
I'm off to get the bubbly ready for tomorrow.... A bit arrogant to say this, but, yes, I feel confident.
M
There is nothing that anyone can say today to change then message and deal (in the background), and announcement tomorrow - this is already set by the Company IR. Not even SuperSausage...
So, good luck to us all.
M
Avocet, do you realise what the BOD and CF would be thinking if his 3rd time delayed 'fairly confident' means to how confident any investor feels and read as 'fairly bullsxxxt' story if they fail to make a communication?
If they fail to make any statement tomorrow, they will show that they don't care of investors ....
My bet is that this is not the case, and we we will see something tomorrow am - that 'something' may not be the complete message/ package, but, will be there.
Or we have a big liar at the top digging a big money pit (with someone else's money)...... the story of mining. Somehow I do not see CF fitting the image.... but here, I give them the spade...
M
I always thought that, if there is a suitor to fancy us, BHP would be IMO the top of the list.
They seem to go ahead with $12B MOP mine in Canada. But they have serious competition Nutrien etc.
But, Polyhalite, best as mix ... IF you buy SM and then sell your own MOP + Ployhalite blend, and no one else can, then you decimate the competition and make a double fortune (from Polyhalite nutrient value sale, plus your MPO volume ahead of competitors' volumes).
Time will tell .... but I am not writing off a Takeover offer before we become too expensive as Market Cap.
M
Do anyone have access to the mining-journal.com article (I do not want to subscribe):
https://www.mining-journal.com/miner-s-right/opinion/1361778/sirius-versus-bhp-potash-stand-off
Title: Best friend of worst enemy (referring to SM and BHP). released today.
Sirius versus BHP potash stand-off
"Best friend, or worst enemy? That’s a question Chris Fraser, chief executive of Britain’s emerging potash champion Sirius Minerals, would probably like to ask his counterpart at BHP Group, Andrew Mackenzie."
Thanks - this may give us a feel of where BHP $12b MOP mine is going, and more importantly, could they become a 'suitor' for SM.... IMO.
M
Bobster, guidance is guidance.
Or would you crucify the farmer whom today will tell you that he is aiming to pick the fruit at end of October, and then he ends up (for whatever reasons) do it later = as long as he actually does it and the fruit sells?
Have you read the 'forward looking statement'?
Or, did the 'counterpart' to our transaction come out publicly and stated a date?
As long as we get a communication, and ST2 gets done, is OK.
But lack of communication leads to lack of trust ... hence I am sure they will issue something tomorrow.
M
Hi 15.
You are spot on - I am pretty confident (ah dear, did someone else used these words recently?) that an update will come tomorrow, or maybe May 1st.
May only be a construction update and ST2 'still ongoing', maybe more...
May not be the 'signed, sealed and delivered ... (actually, I think this a bit unlikely, as these things take time at Credit Committee ), but a status update and clearer expectations to when we are likely to see the s,s&d.
But unlikely that some will be happy with any announcement tomorrow. Frankly, I think that some are just unhappy (and may not be invested here or have intention to invest).
If a good story, shooters will go and cry wolf. Some will point out that this is a x years from Divis, some will point out that it rains in the North, some ... whatever.
If not a complete story, inexperienced (+shorters) will moan.
If no announcement tomorrow, wait for May 1st.
If not sure, call a friend, psyhiatrist, ask the audience, go to the pub... Or if it makes you feel better, sell.
M
Fosters, you are either in the wrong business of investing, or you have no clue.
You can get better odds at the Casino table....
No offence intended.
In my humble opinion, go and put your money in funds.
M
Well bicko
Starting savings and investments at 18, you will do well in life.
Keep saving and the rest will follow.
M
To summarise it, in my view, if CF manages to get any $ required above the $ level of debt on the table to be back ended, even if that is 1$bil, now Ladies and Gentlemen, that is the Art or a Deal!
Even if we say $1b (GBP 750 m -ish) in 3 years at likely 50 pence + / share = 1.5 Bil extra shares), is way better for us, and makes no different to JPM.
Also, gives flexibility - if we are truly ahead in construction and don't need all this money, no use of the contingency etc, and truly we are as good as we say we are, then we can issue / dilute less. If we end up needing more, than swallow your own pride and issue more ...
IMO
M
wwguk,
Your summary is fair for what few of us are speculating (it is only guesses anyway).
One thought that I have, or maybe more of a 'feel':
CF mentioned that the new arrangement is attractive is provides flexibility.
Knowing that CF is also a significant shareholder, this must also reflect his own position to what it means to him (in my read...).
Taking this a step further:
1. JPM must feel pretty confident on the $3 B (USD, not GBP) funding without the IPA need to cover exposure.
2. True, they will syndicate ('farm out' the $3b to multiple institutions). They would have assessed interest from the others, including at the JPM debt conference in January, they know what other deals are being done in the market, so they know that other than a x$ portion that they want to invest and keep themselves, they can 'sell % of the package' to others.
3. Highly unlikely that they gone around Institutional investors asking them to confirm if they want x$ in a detailed designed package - this would trigger inside trading, leaks, etc..... therefore I would not read into Capital selling as 'they've seen the deal and not like it' - would be a different reason, whatever that is).
4. FLEXIBILITY .... keeps coming back to me... my 'senses' tell me that this is highly possible to be the Capital funding for the 4-600 back ended. I.E.:
- we get a $3b debt funding package, but any more is going to mean Share placement or CBs issued in the future when SM chooses to.
- this would mean we do issue the additional shares, just not today, or based on today's SP. If we issue them in say 2021-22 when the SP will have risen to say 50 pence, then we issue less than half shares that would have been issued as 'upfront'.
My half a penny.... I may be way off from what the actual deal is / will be, but my gut is telling me that there is something to be had here. There is no reason why JPM would insist in 'upfront' (that was the IPA / Lending Group rubbish that led to this alternative discussion), all they care is if we, JPM, lend x$, you figure out the rest, and yes, you can do it in 3 years from now rather 3 weeks from now ...
Time will tell.
Not long ....
just less than 48 hours to go and we will find out. 47 hours and 53 minutes to go before the RNS must come out for sure...
GLTA.
M
My understanding, .... He is not a yank.
M
I agree SMcK
It is about communication and building trust.....
Buffet is not in the business of lending money ....
He is on the business of investing and buying companies, or 'gems with potential'.
If he is interested in SM, he may participate in any share issue, buy at later date, or go for the lot (which I do not think is on the cards, at least not yet).
M
Fred,
I truly admit that I know more now about this share than when I bought in - you could you not, having the benefit of Myo's and others' inputs here!
I followed and learn a bit about the company over past few years, but also waited to time my investment to what the experienced Institutional Investors use ... see link below.
https://www.explorationinsights.com/articles/fatal-flaws-in-the-junior-mining-sector/
I thought last year that we were in the dip before the growth .... then we had the September Surprise... her-ho, still happy and carry on, but, I did not discount a surprise along the way (development company, correct?).
One thing for sure - by Tuesday 8 am I will know if I was right in believing in the fairytale story and CF, or not .... If we get away with only 2 B extra shares (total 8 including CBs), this is better than my own base case scenario, 4b OK, more ... not sure (for me) if I want to stay longer.
* One thing for sure - IF they do not communicate by Tuesday, even if is only along the lines ...'xxxx this is the kind of deal, but sign off slips in May'..., I will seriously reconsider my personal appetite to stay invested.
If Eureka (BS) and GK are right, 2 B extra shares and $3b debt.... we are flying!
But, you are right, the ups and downs over just the past 12 months has been interesting - considering that I invest quite a bit in Biotech (and the fluctuations there are x 10,.. x 100 what you see here)....
GLTA
M
It is worth recalling CF stating that he intend to refinance the company at production. Currently we are looking at high interest rate, but once we start production, generate positive cash flows, our credit profile is changing and you can re-finance at a more average interest of 3%-ish.
At that point, it is easy to line out funders, or go to the capital markets yourself via bonds etc.
We are also getting a bit lucky now - if you recall, even Thomas last year mentioned that the 6-7% Interest rate he was forecasting, may change due to US Feds raising rates etc.
Now the Interest rates forecast are towards flat / keep at these historic lows.
M
Aubery,
The EBITDA is after Royalties and local payments etc.
Deduct from it Interest payments, there is no Corporation tax to pay for the first few years (we have quite a bit of carry fwd losses), and for cash flow we also need to take away debt repayments. Not much else (assuming there is not more capital spend of significance). Leave out Depreciation.
M
So, trion,
with 3 out of 3 failed investments, you are here offering wisdom?
just checking ... looks like we have a lot of knowledge to gain from you contributions here...
Good luck anyway.
Andy, what level of Dilution you expect realistically (not wish / dream of)?
We have 4.5+15 = 6b already lined up.
ST2 = how many more shares?
It seems that whatever they do you will not be happy, hence I am curious.
M
Of course the Lender' Due Diligence team had access to the status of this deal, even CF said it is a 'done deal' to be signed and announced shortly (and shortly does not mean the next day... for the impatient or inexperienced ...).
The pricing is again in line with what CF said - looking to capitalise on the Poly4 value and develop future ToPs to increase contract values.
Lastly - it is logical that they pushed to get this announced, to make it easier for the Credit committee approval (remember the 'conditional offer' point mentioned?). This would be one of the likely conditions the Lender asked for.
So far, no surprises.
This opens up the door for a ST2 package to be close to announcement. I also think, my opinion, that we will also get a Construction update, then ST2 announcement (i.e. I think the construction progress will also carry some good news from what I've seen so far).
I just hope that CF noticed my recommendation in September ... do not announce first good news, then bad news as this creates mistrust and erodes confidence from SHs. At least add the 2 together.
Time will tell ... I guess a week max.
BTW, daily enthusiasm does not fare well with this SP ... as we know... wait until 4.25 and then we get the usual adjustment ... until the main ST2 announcement is here.
M