Member Info for miker444

Jace I also believe they may have encountered oil shows, as I posted a while back when invested in UKOG it wasn't unknown not to get an update of 'early shows of oil and gas encountered etc etc ' prior to full drill news.
I am fairly upbeat on Colter, not sure about outcome of Badger but Colter alone will get us back our investment and then some.
atb

Colter is not a sure thing but its a pretty good bet,3 of the 4 factors a 90% and 1 a 80% chance of success when taken individually therefore better to place when sp 2p or above as much less dilution, just think of the amount of shares needed in placing at 0.6p.
I do believe some on here sold on Bunga news and incurred a loss and I sympathise and understand but now want back in but a double loss as sp has gone up 25% from lows of that news.
We only have a week and 2 days until 01st March for Badger update, could be steady as she goes and underpins until Colter news due almost same time.
Colter spudded 2 weeks ago today, stated 3 weeks we may get an inkling a week Friday. Got nothing to lose to sit it out for 7 working days imo.
atb

RH187 it also makes the 24% cos of the West Newton ( Rathlin) which looked very low in normal probabilities seem much more possible as 60% x 60% x 60% x 60% gives you 24% cos.
Each factor better than a 1 in 2.
I am talking about the deeper Cadeby formation which is estimated as worth $850m and seen as an extra and not factored in to any NPV's currently.

The Kirkham Abbey formation which is what Rathlin are there for initially is 72% cos and NPV $247m so as good as it gets success wise.

But what a bonus the $850m would give RBD if that came in, (another $212m NPV)

Had a look at how the cos (chance of success) is derived by the Oil & Gas Industry ( after a post from another BB) and 58% is extremely high.

For those that were not aware,like me, 4 factors are taken into account and independantly given a % rating and then all 4 percentages are multiplied together.

The factors are : Source Rock, Migration, Reservoir, Trap. A figure of 1 (100%) is total success but never given by the Industry as nothing can be that sure.

So to get an overall cos of 58% you need to multiply 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.8 ( 90% x 90% x 90% x 80% )

This gives you 58% cos overall, it can be in any order. This means a 58% cos is extremely high when looked at individual factor scorings.

We have a 72% cos at Monoe Swell which is as good as it gets (2 x 95% x 2 x 90%)

My thanks for Jace on another board whose post prompted me to look deeper into how the cos is calculated.

My point is in normal flat workings out that we use on a daily basis 58% is little more than a 1 in 2 chance or the toss of a coin but in the O&G industry it is exceptionally high and gives me some reassurance that whilst not a done deal Colter is weighted in favour of success. IMO.

atb

I looked up to see how cos is derived and you are spot on, a figure 1 is never used as you cant have that high a certainty ( that's quoted) but 0.9 / 0.95 is regarded as an absolute certainty, so multiply 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.8 as you stated and you get 58%.
I am feeling a lot happier that the % in oil terms is far higher than in flat permutation that we normally use.
atb

All 3 historic drills hit oil. With 3D Seismic data of uplifts it increases the chance of success. As Jace states it is a high % in the oil industry.

FB apprecaite the frustration with Bunga Mas, for me its as dead as a dodo in dead dodo town.

However Colter is vey much alive with UOG,RBD,BOIL,ADL all involved and with a better than 50/50 (58%) cos.

Not necessarily small crumbs MarCap wise if it comes good.

Badger is a few months down the line in reality although update due in 12 days or so. Still all to play for at the moment,well 2 out of 3 at least!

Just for fun / fag packet calcs, if RBD's 16% is NPV $56m @$55 barrel then the ratio is 3.5 i.e $56m divided by their 3.52m barrels gives $15.9 a barrel ( what RBD get )

Use the same 3.5 ratio with oil @$66 a barrel then they (RBD) get $18.85 a barrel.

So practically $19 a barrel multiply ADL 's 1.76m barrels and you get an NPV of $33.4m for ADL.

As I say just for fun but shows how sp can be greater with same amount of oil being affected by price fluctuations per barrel.

Yes I am bored.

Sandy that would give an sp of 3.35p @40% NPV, and despite a large amount of PI's taking profit the sp should be underpinned somewhat by the full value of what our 2m ish barrels would command on sale.

Badger update due 01st March would be great timng also if positive, a lot of if's but here's hoping.

atb

Purely as a yardstick RBD hold 16% interest of Colter, exactly double ADL's 8%.
RBD have stated their NPV of Colter success is $56m @$55 a barrel. Oil currently >$60
Therefore pro rata ADL's NPV would be exactly half of that at $28m.
Too simple a calculation, I don't know but these are the figures released in RNS's and presentations by RBD.
Colter has to succeed for this and we would need a buyer but if so the sp will multi- bag, the only question is how many times current MarCap.
It's a company maker or breaker with only Badger left.
Fingers (and toes) crossed..

Boom, exactly my way of thinking also, sorry mate posted same content at same time.

UOG,RBD flat and BOIL up 4% so not really. I did think this morning that the RNS could be seen as positive in the light of we are not throwing money (that we do not have) in trying to maintain an interest in what has become a messy affair. It may be no more than mm's view it as cutting our losses, admin costs only etc rather than becoming involved in uncertainty and financial risks withunsable country practices, no way to do business in my book..

Must admit I thought this was the usual mm's taking it up early and then dropping it back at or near the close of play, it does seem a bit more than their usual 5 - 10% daily manipulaion. Hopefully you are correct although it does seem a tad too early in to the drill. Fingers crossed.

Interesting Interview with Oil Analyst Barney Gray from a link on RBD post on their BB, Colter is menioned 10 mins in but whole interview is a good listen imo and sounds positive and good news wll bury Bunga doom and gloom.

Agree this looks dead in the water ( Bunga ) and a clean break would let us move on. Colter news a couple of weeks that's what I am focusing on and should be around the same time as Badger update 01st March I believe (from memory) .

Whilst unlikely it is possible that before drill completion that an interim RNS update could be released stating along the lines that 'drilling is going to plan and early signs of oil shows have been encountered' blah blah.
I am not expecting this but such updates have been releasd more than once in the past by UKOG prior to final results.
Woud be nice and may allow peeps to relax a bit earlier, wishful thinking on my part :¬)

GI ( Grizzly Island ) or Monroe Swell 2 after Monroe Swell I think is what he is saying. A Monroe Swell 2 would be incredible if it follows the same concept of VG - 4 drill which was an unplanned extra due to success of VG - 3 especially taking into account Monroe Swell NPV up to $100m.

Obviously there is much more oil than expected they cant get it out with just 1 drill :¬)

Thanks Jace

Hi Jace yes we are due an update anytime now, my point is if its the same Atlantic that Malcy has been speakig with then the news seems good as he is in a really positive mood coming out of the meeting.
There may be more than 1 Atlantic?