Member Info for miker444

Not sure I would describe Haverion as low grade, some of the grades with 40 metres plus are 5 g/t - 10 g/t .

aandi your post at 02:43 just realised its to be read with the 12 Days of Xmas melody, it actually works, absolutely priceless and a little bit of much needed levity :¬)
atb

Hi Boom123, great to see you back on the board mate, hope all is well.

Jack, excellent post mate, the oil is still there at West Newton and Parta has masses of running room, patience rewards the brave.

It has been a long time for news but I suspect and hope, other than things not going to plan, that the intention of increasing the bofpd from 2,200 up to 6,500, a multiple of 3 x, is a huge undertaking and will be a challenge to get a quick final stabilised flow rate due to fluctuations that occurs with an oil / water cut circa 5% / 95% by volume.
3 months is not unknown to stabilise a wells final flow rate but I wouldn't say no to some festive cheer in time for Xmas although above all else we need to breach the original 150 bopd target.
Flow rate news before Xmas and a CAV deal for the New Year ( Please Santa )

I think $800m is conservative as the Cadeby Reef Formation alone was given an NPV of $850m for just 79m barrels. If we take the mean figure of 146m - 283m and then add the Cadeby we come in at 300m barrels, could be more.

I genuinely believe we have a decent dividend heading our way (1p+) but we will have to wait for it and I don't expect monetisation until mid summer at least but if you hold a few million it will be worth the wait. Remember we have 176,000 acres of licence at WN and its possible that we could repeat this at least once more over such a large area.

There are some decent prospects in the Corallian Portfolio,

Viking Graben flowed in excess of 5,000+ bopd with prospective resources of between 57.4m to 107.5m barrels of oil and 80 bcf gas (recoverable)

West Shetlands Pmean prospect of 12.6 TCF (Trillion) Gas, (Range 6.8 TCF - 20.1 TCF) Corallian 100% licence

Inner Moray Firth Pmean prospect of 187 mmboe Corallian 45% licence

Central Graben 39 mmbe with additional 30 mmbe Corallin 90% licence

West Sussex, we all know about Colter South.

We have 34.9% interest in Corallain, be interesting to see what value the IPO is estimated at.

If we can come in at 170 - 180 bopd we would have 100 bopd @$40 ish 'profit' ( I know we will be using it to pay off the £500k) which will take 125 days give or take, that's only 4 months. It would put us in a good position ( early) for further involvement where any gains come into our coffers.
Should see an sp mark up on exceeding 150 bopd target. Who knows, if we can come in a 200 bopd then it will only take 100 days payback and so forth.

Yes I read it as being 18% participating interest, it is just possible that CAV could return the favour and take a position in ADL, stranger things have happened, apparently :¬)
If Simon / Greg are waiting for a final total stabilised rate it may take another couple of weeks to get the bofpd up to the max of 6,500 bofpd.
I would expect they are increasing the bofpd on a daily basis, it's a big jump from 2,000 up to 6,500 and will be done in stages as well as maximising the strokes per minute of the nodding donkey from the previous 6 strokes to hopefully 9 - 10 strokes per minute.
I would rather see a one off final production figure than gradual increments as it would have less impact. Hopefully by end of the month / Nov 30th.

GP Good find, and I would say its extremely relevant even if not directly linked they are strapped for cash and as the saying goes somewhat 'over a barrel' to prospective fund finding , no pun intended.
Just wonder if Steve & Sachin are aware.

Agreed Jimb, my guess is they will already be calculating their income from the expected dividend, as and when it happens :¬)

It looks as though we will not be undertaking the £7m 'share swap' with Rathlin, it's a shame, 40% is massive but 50% would have been outstanding.
Would it have to be followed up with an announcement if it doesn't go ahead or will it just disappear due to already mentioned as not definite in the last update.

Hi angela, at no point do I expect monetisation to return 100% of proceeds back to share holders in the form of a dividend, however, when cash hits the bank balance then I do expect a dividend from a % of that, as is the case with all dividend paying companies.

PDMS I too think there will be a special dividend once WN is monetised, whether its 5p or not is anyone's guess but to put in to perspective of the rewards from just a dividend alone if anyone here holds circa 10m+ ( and there's few of us) then just 1p dividend will give £100k. It's worth putting that in to perspective if all you have to do is wait 6 months or so. You will get that without a single one of your shareholding being touched.
Who knows, although not as much, we may eventually get an annual dividend until the company is wound up or other special dividends from similar plays such as Parta if it's going to be as big as Steve & Sachin keep stating.
I can wait :¬)

Helpful you are correct in that an awful lot of problems were encountered with the work over wells, be it scale, gas pressure, water ingress etc, however all were overcome irrespective and so for me It would appear that the best asset for ADL at the moment is Greg Mawhinney, no matter what was thrown at him he has resolved it. He may be a belt and braces type of man but it may well be down to him that we get further involvement with CAV and other wells.

Important to not that this is not a CPR but an internal assessment from the operator or words to that effect. The volumetric range is huge almost double from Base Case 146m barrels to Upside Case of 283m barrels.
Cadeby Reef should add an extra minimum of 80m barrels taking the base case to 230m barrels an the Upside Case to 350m barrels.
For me we still need to wait for EWT and CPR Q1 2020 and it looks as though the operators hands have been forced somewhat by the BMD leaks. RBD all about monetisation and that will be summer of next year (ish) to see the sp reflect its true worth from WN.
All good for those that can wait a few more months.

PDMS / krull many thanks for the response and content quality, much appreciated, not only did I learn something but I actually understood it as well, had to happen one day
:¬)

To abandon the well they saw enough to know that these weren't just 'oil shows' but more than likely they hit a reservoir, literally, a lake of oil that is conventionally able to flow or be pumped to the surface.

It's looking good for 80m ish barrels also from the Cadeby Reef Formation. But one question remains for and that is the gas. The whole initial drill was to confirm 189 bcf, a large gas deposit, albeit made to look insignificant now due to the discovery of oil. I alo know oil is easier to recover and more profitable 'pound for pound' but my question is this if the 25m column of gas also comes in far higher, say 300 bcf, will this still be ignored?

When you look at the depths (no pun intended) that some companies go to on the promise of just 20 - 30 bcf will the sheer volume of WN Gas just be left alone? It will have a retail value of $1 - $2bn in its own right.
atb

The RNS convinces me we will have to wait for EWT before CPR so these buys may well just be the realisation the window of opportunity to be able to still buy in at under 1p (with the mother of all volumetrics for onshore due to land) will soon be gone.

The last comment of my post was a bit tongue in cheek and an end response in answering another post but surely your post is agreeing with just that. i.e it obviously wasn't already on the radar as no major has come in for a stake. Therefore it could be now or in the future.

My point is it will be a lot more than $5 and actually considering it is onshore with all the infrastructure, terminals, pipelines and refineries within spitting difference then we are in a strong negotiating position, especially if a speculated 2 majors are already in talks.
Really don't want a bidding war now do we :¬