RE: tsunamis, quakes and ducs1 Dec 2018 08:57
Spinefx
I am not sure they are holding of DUC production because of POO. At this time it seems to be that have no where to run the oil with, as the pipework does not yet hook up. By this time next year, they will be ''on line'' and many of those spigots will be on. They have to fund their debt build up somehow. Once flowing this will be a net cheaper supply as not using rail or truck
I also expect that Venezuelan heavy oil production will be down, so having an over all nil net affect, just better quality API.
US consumes close to 20 million bp/a. They may with some of those well running at 500bpd cover over 12mbp/a, still a huge shortfall in domestic production over demand. They are also converting road fleets to gas as opposed to gasoline.
US is going to be a serious exporter of oil in the next 18 months. Russia will not pull back. So I suspect Saudis will have to take on role of key swing producer if they want income, no matter how reluctant.
This is good as the west coast crude oil export to Asia is going to get very competitive.