Member Info for MikeGP

,... board has taken a funny turn this morning..... can only believe that that the pressure of a few blue days is weighing heavy on our collective mental state!

https://www.wsg-corporate.com/wp-content/uploads/WG-PLC-Annual-Report-2018.pdf

You need to check out the last Finals,.... gross margin figure is in there,... but it is a combined figure for tech contracts managed services etc.,... I can' t remember the exact figure off the top of my head,... would imagine that this is high margin, since our fixed costs and overheads will be relatively low. We didn't supply the kit for instance,.... the more we scan the more we get paid,..but our costs are pretty much fixed.
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2018 Annual accounts:
Gross Margin
The increase in turnover was primarily from the increase in lower margin Technology Solutions sales; typically, at about 15%. Because of this mix effect the headline Gross Margin decreased to 55% (2017: 59%).

Current run rate was reported by MPS as circa 62K plus TEU's per month ( in September)...being scanned.. so circa 750K a year,... possibly more as they ramp up and Berth 3 opens at end of Q1 2020.---- At circa $10 to WSG/per TEU.-- $7.5M/Year min?

LTH Mike..... I think the general market still wants to see the actual contract signed..... whilst for us believers,... I think we have 'on the table' to be convinced that it is coming.

Fingers crossed.

I'm moving home next year and and an sp of 40-50p+ come Jan/March would help make a few decisions a little easier!

DHC,.. absolutely agree. It's just a question of how long it will take to get to that level of through put etc., and yes you may well be right with teh higher % to WSG,... I was just trying to be uber conservative. Will be good to some meat on the bones when the contract is signed albeit I think we will only be fed generic info.

HB,...
My little log, for our berths suggests 35 ships for September.

However if we use there figures,.. that is circa 1,500 TEU's per vessel,..... rather than the 1,000 I used. So would make my fag pack calc look quite conservative.

noodle..... 66% WSG 33% Scan port----- on a $15.2/TEU fee for a full 20ft container--- from the current port tariff fees for 2019.
The % split is MY guesstimate,... based on the comment by PF at the AGM when he said we would get the lion's share of the fee.

Best

Fag packet calc:

The berths went operationally live at the end of June and as we know it was a slow start-up as procedures were learned etc., My logs show that the 6 or 7 ships/week were being serviced at that time,… and that continued for roughly a couple of months. The through rate has now increased to circa 8-9 ships a week, with a recent maximum being 10 ships in one week.

So if we average that at circa 8 ships/week and allow for 6 months revenue— July to Dec— then we are looking at fees generated from circa 26 weeks x 8 ships = 208 ships serviced.

Most of the vessels recorded were ‘mid-sized-,… with the capacity to carry 4000 TEU’s and upwards,.. but we have no details of whether they were fully laden or how many TEU’s were off-loaded and loaded. So this is where we are really ‘reaching’ in terms of trying to put numbers to the possible revenue being generated by each ‘visit.

IF WE ASSUME(!) 1000 TEU handled, per ship, on average, that suggest 208K TEU’s over the course of the 6 months to this Financial year end, December ’19.

I think we are all agreed that by looking at the existing port tariffs our fee is likely to be in the region of $10/TEU…. or circa £8/TEU.

So circa $2.08M revenue…. or £1.75M to WSG for this year?

Remember this is only for 6 months and includes for the lower throughput during the ramping up period over the first few months. Throughput at current ship servicing rates would be circa 10-15% higher…. and at the end of Q1 2020 the third berth is due to become operational.

As I say the big unknown is just how many TEU’s are loaded/unloaded at TEMA. If we are indeed on target to be servicing 1M TEU’s, after 12months … the stated aim,… then my numbers above are very conservative. Anyway,.. food for thought. It looks as if all will become clear very soon.

... any of the LTH's,... with substantial holdings,.. even contemplating selling any until after the contract is signed,.... the free float will dry up pretty quickly.

Another little snippet of news from PF on one of the many other opportunities, over the next few days, would be very nice.

jaykeeboy,

Txs for sharing.

"As outlined in the Divisional Review below, both Managed Services and Technology Divisions have performed ahead of expectations and passenger numbers for our West Africa airport operations for the first six months of 2019 are the highest levels since we commenced operations there."--

From the Half Year Report---.... all good.

Hmmmm.... a little bit more thought.

You would also expect that at the end of the term,... that might be the appropriate point to re-negotiate the contract in respect of fees/services etc.,? ..... and perhaps that is what is happening now. The contract has been 'rolled' over whilst these negotiations are on-going and perhaps we will in fact have a new contract, in due course,..once these issues have been agreed??

The Freetown contract is our single most valuable Managed Service contract.. and the only with significant recurring revenues. If it has been extended, effectively by default, as the break clause has not been actioned by the SL Government then it would, in my view,... absolutely be material to the on-going financial projections of WSG in the short and medium terms. On that basis it has a material effect of the sp and should be RNS'd. Perhaps we are awaiting some official governmental paperwork,.-- who knows?.. but if the BoD have discussed it ... and decided not to RNS this info,..then I believe that to be a poor and incorrect decision. I could make an argument,... for letting it be quietly 'extended' in this manner,.. letting it go 'under the radar'.... might be a good tactic... ie this being Africa,... let's not open up the "why hasn't this been re-tendered".. "why let this foreign company' take all the profits etc.,... you get the gist,... however..... for us it is material news.

..... is the realist level that the sp will settle at once the contract is signed?

I have a pretty detailed s/sheet.... which I have posted here many times with various scenarios,..... and that I am happy to share again,... but would be good to get the views of other LYH's before I do that.

Yes,... I know this is a rather pointless exercise,.... but since we are due a bit of good karma,... it's quite nice to contemplate some upside having lived with pain of all the downside for many years!

dhc,

Yes, agreed. It's possible that they'll pick up the scanning at Terminal 2,... but I thought that they were stand alone facilities so not sure how that would work. Likewise we have to factor in that whilst the tariff will go up,... it looks as though MPS have had to concede some ground on the 20% volume. So one might negate the other in terms of short term projections.--- on the other hand we know that the larger containerships need a deeper draught,.. and they haven't got that in Terminal 2--- so the larger ships,.. which will be the most efficient to service,.. should be coming to the new MPS facilities?

Where did you get the info about us doing the perimeter security etc., > --- I've not heard or seen that before. Good news if that is accurate.

Best

..if that meeting was Tuesday,... and they said about a week to get the paperwork sorted, circa end of month/December for full approvals etc.,----SO for the first time we have a timeline which has not been put forward by WSG but by MPS and GHPA and the government. Let's hope this will prove to be more reliable.

In the meantime we know that MPS have increased achieved their increase in Tariffs,... presumably these will kick in from the start of 2020 when the new Port Tariffs would have been announced in any case?---- Just in time for the third new berth which is due to be operational by end of first quarter,... and the fourth berth which is due to be operational in December 2020.

It looks like Santa might be calling at Bumbly Towers this year and boy do we deserve it!

I'd like to know the reason for the recently formed GLIS subsidiary. We already had a subsidiary in Germany, which was formed some time ago,... so why another now, ..unless there is a specific intended use?

http://www.glis.eu/en/

So,..there are now a few snippets of info out there in the ether that are just under the radar and not been deemed noteworthy by the company to RNS,... but our resident super sleuth Eskers has un-earthed:

1 The new GHANA company
2 The SQ sale/lease
3 The new GLIS company
4 The cut-off date for the SL Freetown contract passing,..effectively extending our contract to 2027

.. and now we have the news that the MPS and GPHA appear to have resolved their differences which should clear the route to the signing of our contract within a few weeks, or possibly days?

The next official trading update isn't actually due until Jan 2020,.. but I would have thought that we will be getting something well before then.... and WSG do have the habit of throwing a left-field curved ball in just when we least expect it.... I wouldn't bet against something new coming out of the wood work.

Best

If it's a £1 party. could we buy it?

Dartmoor works for me!

Good luck to you too.
Best