Member Info for middleEastMoney

Mk111, no envy here, a genuine question, i would have thought a huge No of people would very interested in GRH’s view.

I am not watching the screen, but out walking my dog, eating a sandwich admiring the view down to Portland from a Dorset ridgeway.

As for a tantrum, do grow up

MEM

GRH you keep giving out clues as to the absolute enormous asset PRD are sitting on, respectfully when are you going to go on record and ascribe some figures to back up your thoughts.

I am NOT disagreeing with you, but the ‘Sage of Sevenoaks’ must have formed a very good idea of generally the size of the asset.

It would give great credibility to most holders to hear your views, maybe a range of likely Tcf.

Thank you

MEM

Hi Keith, sorry but I have raised no question of that nature at all. Ever.

Please re-read my posts, you will see you are (respectfully) wrong on this occasion.

MEM

Hi Oily. Fair enough. Thank you. GL

Oily, by your own admission you have no idea !! So why do you think you can justify shouting me down???

It is very likely testing will prove up 4+ TCF perhaps quite a bit more given the unexpected thickness plus higher than expected pressures.

126 sq Km ??? Any thoughts ?? We are clearly in the midst of a gigantic discovery

You take your rather Unambitious 25p target, then pop back 3 months later!!

MEM

And your valuation is what? Please do tell us all

VALUE CRYSTALLISATION - lots of SH want to know what our Morocco license might be worth to a large Co bidding to secure our very valuable patch of ground??

The value is multilayered - near term fast track, low CAPEX CNG sales, that can be ramped up into a hungry market for local power, growing demand locally, plus as more discoveries are made, expand into G2P & G2EUR.

Don’t forget the Low tax, Moroccan Government want this to succeed, and 5km from European pipeline !!!

Crazy low CAPEX.

With a sale, but we maintain stub equity, a divi, growing as sales increase.

All the above as the ROW continue to rotate away from Russia.

What is this worth ?? My educated guess is the eventual winning bid will pay in excess of $7 billion perhaps $8 billion.

Incredible short timescale vs likely rise in SP - the delta is off the chart.

DYOR/DD

MEM

My current thinking is 4.5 Tcf to 6 Tcf for this very small % of our current 7,500 sq Km license.

Apply a conservative 300-350p per Tcf on the first 3 Tcf and then factor in a discount (see a previous posting)

Excellent update, but we need the detailed tests for final confirmation

MEM

Could we finish blue today ??

Sitting having a coffee thinking what is next.

1. Testing

2. Incorporation of test results in to latest CPR

3. Publication of Prospectus, this is when IMO things will heat up.

The Prospectus will contain a huge raft of info plus inference of what that will mean re PRD’s Morocco license = VALUE

Not long to wait

MEM

ROP - Porous zones containing hydrocarbons often drill very fast.

We had an early indication with the confirmation of spud RNS and cementing the casing.

Everything is falling into place, ignore all the evidence at your peril.

Testing will confirm the structure, VALUE CRYSTALLISATION will follow with numerous Bids.

MEM

Over to the extensive testing which will finally allow us to know with some certainty exact pressures, porosity and volumes.

It is all pointing to some very big numbers for a small percentage of our total license area.

Today is similar in some parts to the initial MOU - 1 results RNS, not too much detail, a deliberate policy.

PG is keeping his powder dry for a big reveal.

MEM

Charged sands

I think eventually cooler heads will prevail- a compromise of sorts.

What this will do for the SP will be self evident, especially if BOO cancel the GM…..

Hi Keith,

Any idea of the possible size of the discovery inputting the new metrics.

Thanks

MEM

Do we really want to get involved in Anchios, with the huge development costs ???

Perhaps there is a deal, we require some funding, CHAR clearly can see onshore is the sweet spot, perhaps we sell a small % of our current license plus CHAR takeover the 25% we are due to hand back next month.

Perfect symmetry for both parties, plus I would expect both parties to share technical knowledge, offering huge database of intelligence which will assist us in any sale.

A Win Win.

RNS tomorrow anyone ?

MEM

Thank you Keith. You have quite correctly skewed the NPV to a very depressed state, in all likelihood the NPV will be better as China economy improves, world trade picks up, UK rates drop back down.

So I think our return will be somewhat better.

We sit on the cusp of greatness

I have known the connection for a number of years, hence my large SH, sound in the knowledge that GRH was many steps ahead of me.

We can all take comfort in GRH’s knowledge base and be grateful he has chosen to share with all on the BB.

This has always massively reduced the risk element, vital in E&P.

I would respectfully suggest most on here go back and read GRH’s large body of work (plus other media. Outputs) and you will join the dots about the size of the prize and it’s significance to us SH but the KOM, and wider gas market.

It will be the colossus!

Thank you GRH

MEM

Given PG providing guidance on what is achievable re gas sales for a small CNG project, which translated in to approx 400 M per 1 Tcf.

Allow for less per extra Tcf discovered (discount reasons covered already)

All you need to ask yourself is how many Tcf might be found initially by PRD and it’s net worth (75%) and what each subsequent Tcf might be worth as a Special divi once we sell on the license (not the entire Co) to a large entity.

Calculate/divide the M/Cap by the No of shares and you an approx answer of SP worth.