Member Info for mick2020

What took you so long Cperkin? I expected a post from you yesterday already! Are you not enjoying the Aminex board anymore?

Good question. Some communication problem? On the other hand, there is hardly any trade anymore in WRL in London, the share is just following the Oslo stock exchange. Is WRL perhaps planning to de-list the stock in London? (hence not worth the money/effort to spread the news via internet sites like this one?)

Excellent news! After a year of production (recovering ca. 5 Bscf; WRL share), the remaining P2 reserves on 31 Dec 2016 are greater than on 31 Dec 2015: 31 Dec 2015: 114.5 Bscf (net, WRL share) 31 Dec 2016: 115.9 Bscf (net, WRL share) NPV is currently 180.3 mln US$, or 0.87p per share (WRL share, after tax, 10%) This share is seriously undervalued! link: http://cws.huginonline.com/W/136496/PR/201703/2086399_5.html

I' not a huge fan of Malcy (especially after all the promotional nonsense he wrote about Caza, which unsurprisingly went bankrupt), but it is still a good read this time.

I somehow expected a post from you on this forum Perkin.... You really are very predictable... just like your usual drivel....well done!

Clearly not a cash cow yet ((pity it takes longer than expected….), but the results are pretty decent I would say. - Increasing production: 34 MMscf/d in Q3, 39 MMscf/d in Q4, 43 MMscf/d average 2017 to date. A further increase is expected this year (tiles factory + Dangote cement plant), followed by a significant increase in 2018 (Kinyerezi expansion + II) - Debt: reduced to 20.67 mln, as planned (5.3 mln reduction in 2016) - Bills are getting paid fairly normally, even by Tanesco - In addition, TPDC has started to pay for the initial 2015 line-fill volumes (in Q1 2017). Long term receivables are also being paid off (TPDC) - Field infrastructure capacity is 130 MMscf/d (100 MMscf/d wells potential?) - No need to expand debt facility (as announced at Q3 results) - G&A costs reduced by 10% - Minimal capital expenditure expected in 2017 Let's hope that gas demand will increase more than expected (re-start of Songas plant?) and, more importantly, that PERTAMINA is interested in doing further business with WRL in the next few months…. Personally, I quite like the idea of an equity swap...... 35% of Mozambique against 18% in Mnazi Bay.... giving WRL a 50% stake and operatorship in both assets! :-) Unbelievable that WRL’s market cap is smaller than Aminex’ or even tiny Solo!

pity that the table doesn't show up properly

A Canadian forum (link below), posted an interesting comparison between the companies operating in Tanzania, based on WRL's NPV numbers. Here's an update: net 2P NPV (10%) Shares NPV / share Current share under/over-valued: (Bscf) (mln US$) (mln) price WRL: 115 179.2 169.5 85.3p 28.5p -67% AEX: 120 188.3 3475.9 4.4p 7.1p 63% Orca: 481 752.8 34.8 $21.63 $3.85 -82% Solo: 37 58.0 7387.7 0.63p 0.80p 26% Notes: WRL: excluding Mozambique AEX: 28 BCF for Kiliwani (100%) and, given the better than expected drilling results, 140 BCF for Ntorya (100%) so twice the original gross (contingent) reserves. Ntorya reserves will remain stranded until a spurline has been built to the Madimba facilities (or without a GSA). Orca: numbers taken from the Canadian forum Solo: excluding other assets Overall: WRL seems extremely undervalued. It is the only company with immediate access to the market and with bills getting paid. Orca becomes attractive as soon as Tanesco starts paying off their huge debt (over $80 mln unpaid bills outstanding to Orca). AEX seems extremely overvalued, especially in the absence of a route to market. Let's hope the market will realise this soon! :-) link: https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/CDNstocks/conversations/messages/24328

Oggin, You seem to be well informed about WRL. Q4 and year end results will come out on 28 Feb, just have a look at: http://www.wentworthresources.com/financial-calendar.php By the way, M&P will publish their 2016 results tomorrow, 13 Feb (after COB), so we will know the actual Q4 production numbers much earlier. I agree with you that the change of control will likely be triggered; it is just a question of when it will happen. (I thought that trade volumes in M&P shares were quite low actually, but it would be good news if Pertamina reaches 90% this week). Regarding the financing of M&P’s stake in Mnazi Bay: one of the M&P reports showed that cost of capital in Tanzania is very high (ca 12%), obviously due to all the business uncertainties in that country. Using that discount rate (and numbers from WRL’s latest corporate presentation on page 24) NPV of WRL’s 32% Mnazi Bay stake (2P reserves, after tax, 12%) is around $ 167 mln, or 80p / share, and NPV of M&P’s 48% stake is ca. $252 mln. If WRL is able to exercise their right of refusal, NPV of the company will increase from ca. $167 to $420 mln (ca. 2 pounds / share). So even at a high interest rate of 12%, it would, in principle, make business sense for WRL to borrow say $ 175-200 mln, as it will increase NVP by ~250 mln (VIR = 1.4 to 1.25). I’m not saying they will do it (they can also go for a smaller increase to lower the financial exposure, e.g. just to become operator), but it shows that there is a real business opportunity here. A much simpler solution is that Pertamina buys out WRL. As the company should be able to borrow money on international markets at a much lower interest rate than WRL, here too is a business opportunity. For example, at 7%, WRL’s 32% stake will be valued at ca. $205 mln by Pertamina (based on the same numbers as above). If Pertamina buys it for say $ 160 mln (VIR = 1.28 for Pertamina), or 76p per WRL share, then both companies will likely be satisfied. Any outcome is good therefore! And let’s hope that WRL’s large asset in Mozambique (including a 20 Bscf discovery) adds a bit more value still, and that Pertamina buys out the whole company, rounding it up to 1.5 pound per share.. ;-) Hopefully things will soon get a bit more exciting for WRL!

Irishmouse, Just noticed your post. You must be truly bored if you are posting on this (non-existing) WRL forum! In the long term, the upstream oil and gas sector in Tanzania remains very attractive, for almost any company. It is just a pity that the current market for gas in Tanzania is small, and the growth rate is held back by poor management, financial chaos and corruption, especially at the electricity provider. So Tanzania truly is a long term investment opportunity. At this moment in time, WRL is uniquely placed to increase production quickly when gas demand grows, with all wells and facilities up and running. Orca is waiting on a huge paycheck before they will do anything (root wells to the new Songo Songo facilities), and AEX only has the KN-1 well that they can bean-up. However, the most important issue for WRL right now is the ongoing take-over of Maurel . Unfortunately this is also taking much more time than (I) expected. Pertamina acquired only ~ 64% so far, they need 95% to de-list. I don’t really expect any news from WRL until 28 Feb (Q4 + year-end results). Anything before that will be positive in any case. Hence, I don’t check for posts on this forum very often anymore. Besides, there is nothing to discuss here anyway, there are much better WRL forums in Norway. Good luck though with your AEX investment!

With Pertamina, not pertain.... obviously...

With solid trade volumes in Norway, WRL remains as illiquid as ever in London. Quite amazing really.... when will London wake up?? Despite the ~ 50% increase in the last few weeks, WRL remains one of the most undervalued companies, with a market cap of only US$ 68 mln. NPV of just Mnazi Bay is already US$ 179 mln or 86p (WRL share, after tax), with all installations up and running. In addition to that, a potential take-over deal with Pertain could be announced in the coming few weeks, and a significant production increase in the coming weeks is practically guaranteed! Looking forward to an exciting start of the year!

Thanks Tanzaniamannen, it centainly helps a bit!

Tanzaniamannen, Truly an excellent map, great work! Just one question: is it possible to add a scale to the map, to measure distances beteeen two points? Google Earth has a build-in feature for that I think, but I don't know if google maps has the same. Many thanks, and keep up the good work! And a happy new year to you!

Can't believe what I'm seeing, WRL is moving up for a change! Rather modest volumes still, so I guess it is all down to expectations... Another 40p to go and we're back to a more normal price! :-)

Last post today: Somebody from the Norwegian WRL forum (way better forum than this one...), created an excellent map of Tanzania, showing all wells, pipelines and and other infrastructure, as well as the power stations and the Dangote plant Very helpful for understanding the geographical situation! http://wrl.atwebpages.com/gmap.html

Correction: anywhere south of Somanga Fungu (so only Mnazi Bay gas is currently available for any companies south of Somanga Fungu)

As confirmed by WRL the company has a right of first refusal for the Mnazi Bay assets and can, in principal, take over Maurel's stake in Mnazi Bay, if they can pay as much as PERTAMINA offers for Mnazi bay, in their take over of Maurel (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_first_refusal) "Only if the holder turns it down may the owner then shop it around to other parties" In practice, I think several options are possible: 1) Given that Maurel's partners in Gabon also hold a ROFR on their assets, PERTAMINA may assign a relatively low value to Mnazi bay, if they are more interested in the oil producing assets in Gabon. In that case, WRL may be able to get the Mnazi Bay assets for a very good price (anything below 100 million). Funding will be fairly easy/straightforward, as WRL can borrow against the additional production share from Maurel. 2) if PERTAMINA wants a high price for Mnazi Bay (say > 200 mlm US$), then WRL might offer their stake in Mnazi Bay to PERTAMINA as well (note that US$ 200 mln for Maurel's stake corresponds with 133 mln for WRL's stake, or 60 pence per share) 3) if the price is in between 100-200 million, then I think it may go either way. Personally, I think option 2 is perhaps most likely. In any case, I only see this as a positive option for WRL!

Mbolea, Two reasons: 1) Flow direction in the NNGP (National Natural Gas Pipeline) is from the south (Madimba) to the North (Dar es Salaam), hence it is a physical impossibility to use gas produced in the north (either Songo Songo or Kiliwani gas) in Mtwara, or anywhere south of Dar in fact. 2) To use gas from Ntorya at the Dangote plant, a pipeline between Ntorya and the Madimba gas plant is required (30 km) or alternatively, a new processing facility needs to be built at the Ntorya location together with a tie-in to the main line in Mtwara (20 km away). Obviously only after a successful Ntorya well has been drilled. I read somewhere that the Dangote plant will switch over to gas in February, so since Ntorya gas will not be available by then, only gas from Mnazi Bay can be used! The WRL report states that Dangote will require 30-40 MMscf/d (for power and gas furnaces I understand), so that would double WRL's production already! :-)

http://tinyurl.com/hus4k3y Only Mnazi Bay gas can be used in Mtwara, so excellent news for WRL!