Member Info for mick2020

I'm afraid there's little chance that that will happen Jergen. Aminex are world class in hyping up and there forum here is a prime example of that. The only thing that will increase interest in WRL in the UK is good results: Solid Q3 results, followed with a very good farm-out deal in Mozambique by the end of the year will work miracles...Luckily, I think both are likely! Luckily

Nice overview Josik, and if TPDC indeed pays its invoices on schedule from now on, the future looks rosy. However, I personally think that that is a little too optimistic. How does your spreadsheet look like, if you assume that TPDC will keep falling behind further with payments (until 2020), with say 3 additional unpaid invoices per year? Personally, I fully expect payment problems to reoccur in Q1 2018. The last time I asked Katrine (a monyh ago?) she mentioned that the January - March 2017 invoices were still outstanding. If TPDC pays at least one more invoice before the end of the quarter (which is likely I would say), the Q3 numbers will be very good indeed.

Nice update! Debt is falling and income is increasing quickly ... the July invoice should be about 30% higher than the June invoice. I expect record production levels in Q3 (60 MMscf/d in July), a quickly improving cash balance, black numbers from now on and even further production increases in Q4 and Q1. It has taken a long. long time, but WRL is finally moving in the right direction. Only a matter of time before the share price will follow!

Many thanks for sharing Jergen! (I wasn't able to join the conference call this morning). Also a very upbeat story, compared to the rather bland Q2 report. i.e: - yesterday's production: 70 MMscf/d - another TPDC payment received today - average production expected to remain above 50 MMscf/d for the rest of the year - Low point in cash(flow) and cash generation passed - Dangote expected to consume 37 MMscf/d by beginning of 2018, starting in Q4 (only Mnazy Bay can deliver) - Kinyerezi II to consume 30-36 MMscf/d by mid 2018 - 100 MMscf/d increase in gas demand expected in the next 18 (?) months No doubt the next quarterly numbers will be significantly better. I really think we have passed the low point by now!

Kingen, Thanks. I have been in touch with Katherine as well, and she clarified another issue for me, regarding available well capacity: "At present we have four of the five wells producing and believe four wells are capable of delivering up to 80 MMscf/d. With the fifth well also producing we expect to be able to deliver up to 100 MMScf/d" Looks like the wells are performing as expected, and Mnazi Bay can easily deliver 80 MMscf/d over a longer period!

From Bounty oil about Kiliwani "In July 2017 it was planned that the field will be shut in for AT LEAST 15 days to accommodate maintenance at the gas plant" Will be interesting to see how long it really took. Based on WRL and M&P's announcement, it would not surprise me that the well was shut in for almost the whole of July. Amazing how AEX gets away with such misinformation and misleading announcements.

Josik, I also believe that the production increase is caused by an outage from Kiliwani, and I think the recent news from Orca indicates that as well. If Mnazi Bay production has remained above 70 MMscf/d, for almost the whole month of July (as implied by the M&P report), then it means that either Kiliwani cannot sustain its production (due to reservoir depletion), or the some major work is being carried out on the well. A simple well intervention (i.e. a pressure survey, perforation job, stimulation or scale removal treatment) will only take a few days. I guess time will tell. If Aminex is really working over on their well, then they really kept their shareholders in the dark…. once again. If it is not KN-1, then it could only be the Symbion plant…. Now that would be even more interesting! On 18 August we will hopefully hear more news. In any situation, it is very good news for the Mnazi Bay partners, and with the 5 MMscf/d additional demand from Dangote in September, business is improving dramatically at the moment in Tanzania, for WRL!

From the M&P H1 sales report: (link below) "In July 2017, demand from TPDC increased substantially, with production currently hovering at around 70 MMcf/d at 100%" Sounds like July will be a record month for the Mnazi Bay partners! :-) http://www.maureletprom.fr/en/documents/download/942/chiffre-d-affaires-du-premier-semestre-2017-172-me

An average of 71 MMscf/d in July is truly remarkable... Could it perhaps be that..... the Symbion plant is back online??? Replacing the IPTL facilities?? The Symbion plant generates ca. 110 MW, which would fit nicely with a production increase from 45 to 71 MMscf/d.... In would certainly be great news for WRL!! :-)

Indeed an encouraging update. While the Q2 results will be pretty poor overall (as expected), with a record low in production of only 31 MMscf/d, it will be good enough to reduce debt as scheduled by $3 mln, bringing it down to 17.7 mln in total. Q3 should be much, much better though, and with a July average rate of 71 MMscf/d the start is certainly good! I wonder where the extra demand has come from though.... An increase from 45 MMscf/d in June to 71 MMscf/d in July cannot be explained by just an increase in power generation from Kinyerezi I Has Orca reduced production? Has Aminex shut-in KN-1? Is Dangote taking gas now? Upwards from now on I hope!

I don't see this as negative news: M&P obviously want to apply pressure on Tanesco, so that they start paying their outstanding debt to M&P. I don't understand why Tanesco owes so much money to M&P by the way. Tanesco owed WRL "only" $2.19 mln on March 31, 2017, and $0.6 mln was paid after that date. The pressure decline can also be seen for some wells in the latest reserves evaluation (looking at WHP), which increased total reserves. See page 4-24 & 4-25, link below, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. The biggest problem in Tanzania is clearly its planning and payment chaos. But let's hope that things will improve soon. The first step should be the shutdown of the IPTL plant in July..... and hopefully, its replacement by the Symbion plant after that....Much cheaper for Tanesco, and great news for the Mnazi Bay partners! :-) (http://www.wentworthresources.com/pdf/Mnazi_Bay_Resource_Evaluation_v1605_20170308_03-2017.pdf)

Certainly a good moment to get in Crusty, with prices this low. There is lots more good news to come in the next few months. A couple more invoices paid and Dangote taking gas and this share will be flying... Did you hear by the way that the IPTL will most likely not be able to renew the power generation licence? (see link below). If that plant happens to get replaced by Symbion..... happy days for WRL. As you know, I personally don't like the "hyping up of stranded gas businesses", but it might be helpful to the share price as well. http://allafrica.com/stories/201706130068.html

OK Crusty, let's try to forget the past and move on. Ultimately we both want the Tanzanian gas play to succeed, and my bet is on WRL, simply since they are far ahead in their development compared to AEX. Your bet is on AEX, fine, so time will tell who is right. Obviously WRL is not doing fantastic yet, but again, I do expect the situation to improve soon, and that is exactly why I do see this share as a buy. Regarding Kinyerezi, I do not see any reason to doubt the start-up & completion of the plant in 2018. Below an interesting link, I guess also for the AEX shareholders, about the 2017/2018 financial year, which came out a few days ago from the ministry of energy. Some interesting comments (you need to translate it into Engish): page 23/24: "the implementation of the project Kinyerezi II goes well. All costs of the implementation of this project (have been?) re(?)paid.............. the first plant to produce 30 MW is expected to be completed by Dec 2017 and the entire project is expected to be completed in December 2018 page 25: ( Kinyerezi 1 extension): Domestic funds have been allocated for this purpose. The project is expected to be completed by the end of year 2019. page 32 (Kinyerezi 3 & 4): years away still, unfortunately Note that Kinyerezi 2 alone will already increase gas demand with 40-50 MMscf/d, so no doubt that gas production will increase dramatically in 2018. If WRL gets paid by TDPC, and if WRL doubles its production in the next 12 months, then yes, the company is currently a screaming buy, no matter what the world famous (not) "investor chronicle" has to say.... https://mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/HOTUBA-NISHATI-NA-MADINI_NEW.pdf

You must be so pleased with that message Crusty... Luckily, some other brokers just recently reiterated their "Buy" recommendation, like Finncap did on 30 May, with a price target of 55p (link below). Personally I have no doubt that Kinyerezi II will be commissioned in 2018 and related to that, that gas demand will increase dramatically over the next 12 months. I also believe that the TPDC payment issues will fairly temporary, with the situation improving after July, in the new fiscal year. Also, WRL has enough options to sit out a period of unstable payments anyway without a further dilution, so the situation should look a lot better in a few months time. Given the extremely low price at the moment, I would certainly recommend you to buy some WRL shares..... :-) But regarding Aminex, I would be more worried that there are no broker recommendations at all (or only from "house brokers"). But hey, it doesn't chance your stance on Aminex either, you strongly recommended AEX no matter what the price is! Remember, just since your last post here on the WRLforum, 2-3 weeks ago, AEX has fallen from 4.9p to 3.2p... What happened? Running out of hyperboles on the AEX forum? Let's just hope your "strong buy" recommendation for AEX didn't lure in to many investors.... http://www.nandp.co.uk/sharedealing/company/?companyCode=wrl I think anybody investing in WRL will realise that its p

Fully agree, an IMF / world bank loan to sort out Tanesco's financial mess would be fantastic news for Orca needs. When this becomes a reality I'll buy Orca shares as well. You are an Orca share holder I presume? Do you think that Orca would be prepared to sign a new GSA with TPDC, while Tanesco has not settled its arrears? Or another question, do you think Orca could be interested in buying out Solo in Ntorya?

Based on the numbers provided in the Q1 report, one can assume that WRL’s current cash balance is the following: 0.46 mln (balance on 31/3) +1.74 mln (Q2 TPDC payment) + 0.4 mln (line fill payment) + 0.6 mln (Tanesco payment) + 5.1 mln (new shares) - 1 mln (debt reduction in April + May) - 1.51 mln (cash call to operator) - 2 mln (April/May costs for G&A, P&A, interest and capex) Cash balance today: $ 3.79 mln. To test the robustness of WRL’s forward plans (and therefore ultimately the safety of investing in WRL, until production increases) I tried to estimate the monthly cash balance, assuming a truly pessimism scenario. Assumptions: - TPDC payments starting-up again in August, paying only a single month, each month (so a stable but 6 months payment delay) - After each payment from TPDC, a call from the operator to pay back $1 mln (until the outstanding 3.5 mln has been paid) - Tanesco payments not improving as currently observed (but remaining constant, so one invoice paid per month, starting in August) - Flat production of 43 MMscf/d throughout the year - Debt reduction as per plan (-5.3 mln in 2017), flat costs of 1 mln/month for G&A, P&A, interest and capex - 5 month payment guarantee is not invoked The results below show that even in this very pessimistic scenario, WRL will not exceed the 2.5 million overdraft limit. Q3 numbers will be worst (-1.8 mln on 1 Oct), after that the situation slowly improves. Note that I expect the reality to be significantly better than this (e.g. TPDC paying in June or July, perhaps paying 2-3 months immediately, a lower call from the operator). The calculation only shows that WRL can carry as normal, even in a very pessimistic scenario. Once Jan 2018 is reached, WRL's results will show a dramatic improvement, especially once production increases. Monthly cash balance: 1 June: 3.8 mln 1 July: 0.8 mln 1 August: -1.5 mln 1 Sept: -1.7 mln 1 Oct: -1.8 mln 1 Nov: -1.9 mln 1 Dec: -1 mln 1 Jan: -1.1 mln 1 Feb: -0.3 mln 1 March: 1.1 mln 1 April: 2.4 mln

Tanesco's payments to Orca are clearly improving: http://www.orcaexploration.com/pdfs/2017_Orca-Q1-FULL.pdf

grgmtg, I think this article is actually factually correct. Have a look at Orca's Q1 results (link below): "The increase in net cash flow being primarily the consequence of improved cash receipts from TANESCO. A total of US$11.5 million was received from TANESCO during the quarter compared to US$3.6 million in Q1 2016" or: "At March 31, 2017 TANESCO owed the Company US$76.2 million excluding interest (including arrears of US$74.4 million) compared to US$80.1 million (including arrears of US$74.4 million) as at December 31, 2016. Current TANESCO receivables as at March 31, 2017 amounted to US$1.8 million compared to US$5.7 million as at December 31, 2016. Since the quarter end TANESCO has paid the Company US$6.5 million, and as at the date of this report the total TANESCO receivable is US$74.4 million all of which has been provided for" http://www.orcaexploration.com/pdfs/2017_Orca-Q1-FULL.pdf

With Tanesco's payments to Orca and the Mnazi Bay partners actually gradually improving, as well as the improving collection of money (e.g. link below), it sounds a little implausible that TPDC payments are falling behind mainly because of Tanesco’s poor payment record. Could it be something else as well? For example, could it have something to do with the end of the current fiscal year, which ends on 30 June, and that TPDC had already spent its 2016/2017 budget on other things (such as connecting Dangote and Goodwill ceramic to the main pipeline for example). If this is the case, then TPDC will be able to pay its invoices again at the beginning of the new fiscal year, on 1 July. Assuming that TPDC’s payment problems will be over soon, WRL is a screaming buy at this price! Link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201705300188.html

Of course mj152, The key problem is Tanzania itself, with its endless delays and "tradition" to not pay any bills on time. Orca doesn't get paid by Tanesco, WRL doesn't get paid by TPDC, AEX is waiting for a pipeline connection and Solo desperately needs a farm out. If Tanzania could sort out its financial mess.... everybody would be so much happier. Here's a gimmer of hope: http://allafrica.com/stories/201705300188.html All money collected straight to WRL please!.... ;-)