Member Info for mick2020

LedZep, What you calculated is gross gas sales. Net gas sales is a bit more complicated (with a 60-40% split between cost gas and profit gas, and tax deduction on profit gas), but as a quick workaround you can assume that net gas sales (to TPDC) is roughly 62% percent of gross gas sales. Josik is the expert here on this, he has created a very detailed spreadsheet about WRL's balance. What do you mean with "extended credit" period? TPDC is 4 months behind in payments (but payments have stabilised and are regular now) and TANESCO is catching up (but is still ca 9 months behind I believe). What happened in Cameroon?

Perhaps there is an outside chance that the Tanzanian government will pay (part of) the 6.5 mln that it owes to WRL this year as well.... https://tarumbeta.blogspot.nl/2018/01/tanzania-government-to-pay-internal.html

Back at my computer now, so I can provide some numbers (all my personal estimates!) At 75 MMscf/d, I expect total gas sales of $5.1 mln per quarter and 4.4 mln per quarter for TPDC receivables, so nearly 3.2 mln income per month. Obviously the income from TPDC receivables will disappear once the outstanding amount has been paid (I expect that to happen in 2019). Note that monthly expenditure (G&A, P&O, interest, capex) is currently around US$ 1 mln (slowly dropping)

Ledzep, WRL has currently 3 sources of income: 1) gas sales to TPDC (the largest part, as you calculated) 2) gas sales to Tanesco (higher price, but small amount) 3) as long as the TPDC recoverables remain, almost all of TPDC�s stake in Mnazy Bay (20%) for the gas sales (back to TPDC). This is a significant source of income for the whole of 2018. I think total income will be more than 2.5 mln / month at 75 MMscf/d total production. Good luck

Welcome Ledzep, and indeed, WRL is very much under the radar in the UK. In Norway it is a different story and trade volumes over there are quite healthy, just have a look at: http://www.wentworthresources.com/stock.php The bid price in Norway is currently 3.27 NOK, which is about 30p, so I think you got in at a very good price. 2018 is going to be a very exciting year for WRL so I'm convinced the market will improve in the next few months. Good luck!

Very solid numbers, a bit conservative even I would think, I like it! Even at the minimum rate the company will have gas sales above $2.5 mln/month, which will allow then to repay all outstanding liabilities and build up cash quickly. At the end of Q3, the key outstanding liabilities were $1 mln debt repayment in Q4, a $2.5 mln overdraft facility and a $4.1 cash call from the operator (for 2017 activities). I expect the company to have repaid most of these by now, with everything settled in the next few weeks. Very much looking forward to the next announcement!! What will it be? - Production reaches 80 MMscf/d? - A Mnazi Bay reserves increase following the latest CPR? - Drilling plans for Mnazi Bay? Or best of all, more details about the Tembo farm out.... I All looking very good for 2018!

Perhaps you should try to convince some other AEX holders to do the same.... It�s truly unbelievablle how little interest there is in WRL in the UK. Good luck to you as well, I think you won�t lose on this one.

Well well Cperkin, Are you now a WRL shareholder as well? What happened??? I thought you were not interested in such a �debt laden company�.....

Looks like another good day at OSL: the bid price is currenly 3.20 NOK, which is more than 29p. Also good to see that trade volumes seem to be increasing again, with more than 500,000 shares traded yesterday. Amazing that the response in the UK is absolutely zero.... time to wake up LSE! There�s some great news on the way, this share can only go up this year!

Link: http://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/africa/2017/tanzanias-lng-plans-remain-stalled

Thanks Crusty (just noticed your posts here), I must admit that I haven�t followed the O&G news from Tanzania very closely in recent months ( just so little movement, and at the same time I�m very much focussed on some other opportunities), so I am not sure what exactly is happening offshore. My understanding is that the LNG plant in Tanzania is still many years away, see for example the article below from Oct 2017. Quote: �Whatever happens, most observers believe a final investment decision would be five years away at best. By then, the IOCs may well have turned their attention elsewhere�. If FID happens in 2022, then production may start perhaps in 2030... way too far away for any small O&G company; offshore Tanzania is purely IOC territory in my view. I hope for you that AEX can sell Nyuni for a decent price, but I certainly wouldn�t place a bet on that.... The articles you copied are older (2016), so I�m not sure how relevant they still are. What I do know is that LNG in neighbooring Mozambique seems to go ahead, and given the growing LNG supply woldwide, this may make it even harder for Tanzania to justify another LNG plant. Regarding WRL vs AEX: In my view, WRL is an extremely safe bet. In WRL�s �best case� scenario (Tembo farm out is a success, the company drills 3 successful wells in the next 12-15 months and production reaches 130 MMscf/d in 2019), I expect the share price to rocket at a given point (say up to 1 pound/share) and the company being taken over. Even in a �worst case� scenario (WRL goes it alone in Mozambique and drills a dry hole, production reaches only 100 MMscf/d in 2019) I feel that WRL is still undervalued, and should move to 40-50p at some point in the next two years. AEX on the other hand is already valued twice as much as WRL, and in my view, pretty expensive. In a best case scenario the value will undoubtedly go up further, but the risk is much greater. If KN-1 can�t be revived (wich I expect unfortunately) and the volumes in Ntorya ramain stranded the next few years, or worse even, if AEX loses it�s licences in Ruvuma (which I don�t expect), then the company is at great risk in my view.... It�s all about risk indeed, and I personally prefer the safer option. But I certainly hope it will come good for everybody. Good luck!

Lots of power outages at the moment. Related to the start-up of Kinyerezi 2? Let's hope it will be resolved soon. http://allafrica.com/stories/201712060056.html

Fully agree highyield, it is truly amazing how the AEX shareholders are kept in the dark. In many countries it is a legal requirement to produce an annual reserves assessment, most likely in Tanzania as well, so AEX must have done the same earlier this year. Makes you wonder why the company haven�t shared the update with its shareholders... It does look as if they are hiding some bad news, and the Kiliwani revelation from Bounty certainly doesn�t help either. WRL is luckily in a very different situation: after years of delays many shareholders must have run away, so now it is all about �seeing first, then believing�.... I certainly wouldn�t sell any WRL shares right now, but at the same time I think it could take couple of months still before the price starts to move more seriously. This certainly isn�t a share for anybody hoping for a quick win.... A great opportunity for anybody with a bit more time though!

A pleasure guys. While I don�t think the answers are in any way particularly surprising, I am always very impressed with the openness of the company and Katherine in particular. Highyield, I expect quite list with positive news / announcement from the company in the coming months, so better sell your shares quickly before the price drops to zero!! ;-)

I sent Katherine (Roe) a few questions earlier this week, so I though it would be useful for other shareholdes to read her response. With production increasing quickly now, and all wells performing very well, 2018 looks to become a very exciting year for WRL! ------------- Q) When do you expect the office move to be completed? A) We are doing this relocation gradually so that it is a well-managed process and does not impact or disrupt any operations of the Company. We expect this to be complete sometime around end of Q1 next year Q) Are you planning to move from AIM to the main LSE market in London at a later stage? A) This is not a consideration at this stage. We would need to be larger in market capitalized as well as have increase daily liquidity in our shares Q) Is MB-1 flowing to the Madimba facilities now? A) No � this is still in progress but expected to be complete in the coming weeks Q) How are the wells performing? Are they all delivering as expected? A) The wells are performing very well. We have had no water and no drop in pressures so we are very pleased with their consistent delivery. Q) Can we expect a new reserves assessment in Q1 2018 A) Yes � this should be available in January or February next year Q) Based on the March'17 reserves assessment, the company seems to rely on compression to reach 130 MMscf/d. Does this mean that we won't be drilling any development wells in Mnazi Bay in the next 2 years? (so only exploration wells?) A)We think we are able to produce around 100 MMscf/d from the existing 5 wells so it is likely we will need one or two additional development wells to reach our contracted production volumes of 130 MMscf/d. The timing of these development wells will be matched with the growth in demand. Q) Can we expect another �operational update� in December? A) We may release an update in December regarding payments and current volumes. We will look to provide 2018 guidance on production early in the new year

Very good news, and well timed I would say, with production finally ramping up now. It's just a shame that we'll lose Bury; I thought he did a great job. Calgary is a very nice city, so I have some understanding for his position. I'm also glad to see that WRL want to move more into the limelight with their growth plans in East Africa, and doesn't start hiding away like "secretive" Orca. Hopefully step 2 will include a move from AIM to the LSE main market. Accompanied with lots of PR work of course... Can only be good for the share price in the coming months!

Indeed! Bury mentioned "we produced 73 mln scf/d yesterday"! (at 11:47) Nice! :-) Thanks Jergen!

$15.99 mln of the TPDC receivables is expected in the next 12 months (so by end Q3 2018), and the remaining $4.6 mln in Q4 2018. That is at least how I read it.

3nd attempt to post this answer Highyield, "The undiscounted face value of the TPDC receivable at September 30, 2017 is $20.59 million", see the Q3 report. But regarding my profit calculation: you are right, that was a bit too quick. On the positive side I also forgot to include payments from TANESCO. Profit will of course also depend on overall CAPEX spent. In any case, cashflow will increase pretty dramatically and I'm convinced that the company will be able to record a decent profit in 2018.

Perhaps Jergen has made a recording?