Member Info for mick2020

It all depends on the timeframe Irish..... If you look at a 3 months period, or a period of a 10 years, AEX lead in dropping faster is almost unbeatable.... ;-) 3 months: WRL (-16%), AEX (-44%) ~10 years: WRL (-57%), AEX (-83%) And the real long term champion is Solo of course... having dropped from 7.5p 10 years ago to 0.32p today. Not sure about Orca though. But let's hope that things will improve soon.

Webmoor, I am glad you enjoy the slide... WRL should have a reasonable cash balance right now (ca. $6 mln according to my calculations), but if TPDC doesn't pay any bills, then this will evaporate quickly again. Worrying times, no doubt, for any company operating in Tanzania in fact. Perhaps you can really pick up some shares soon for 10p, you never know... But keep up with the hyping up of AEX ... perhaps you'll enjoy that slide even more. It really is becoming a race to the bottom in Tanzania right now.

What I like best: "The Company is fully invested in the Mnazi Bay field and plans for no additional capital expenditures coinciding with a production increase from the approximately 40 MMscf/d experienced during the first quarter of 2017 to approximately 120 MMscf/day exiting 2018" What I like least: "TANESCO continues to be challenged from a financial perspective and this has recently had an indirect impact on TPDC and the ability for it to meet its obligations in a timely manner" Also noteworthy is the postponement of the seismic survey in Mozambique. There is big upside in WRL (potentially tripling gas sales in the next 18 months), but also a risk (TPDC falling behind on their payments). More patience required therefore, unfortunately. Tanzania truly is a long term investment!

I think is is because of the delayed increase in gas demand. But question back, why did AEX drop drom 7.2p early March to 4p this week, while the drop continues Even today?

Clover, It looks as if you have lost your mind.... a result from the brainwashing on the Aminex forum I guess? :-)

And another 5 months were paid in Q1. So what is worrying you? Ridiculous Tarry. You are out of your depth and posting utter garbage. Frustrated with AEX performance? don't blame me!

Come on Webmoor, If this was an attempt to ridicule WRL and criticise me, then I'm sure you can do better!. You sound actually reasonably friendly this time! I've seen some much better comments from you on the Aminex forum, especially the ones directed to me! :-) As I do sense a slightly more serious undertone as well (I might be wrong off course), I'll answer your questions, this time. Just don't expect any hype from me.... I am not a ramper. I have to admit that I hate losses on my investments more than I like profits. A strategy that has served me extremely well in the past I can add (although I have missed out on some opportunities), so I have no intention to change my investment strategy, especially on AIM. So, in case you really want to do some research, I'd suggest you start this with field map, which has lot of links to relevant articles of all gas related projects in Tanzania (including Aminex by the way). http://wrl.atwebpages.com/gmap__x.html I'm not sure who updates it to be honest (somebody from Norway), but he is doing a great job, it is a great overview. Specifically, about your Dangote question: There are links in the map to the Dangote gas deal (click on the dollar sign at the Dangote location on the map), but also have a look at the latest presentation from Dangote cement: http://www.dangotecement.com/wp-content/uploads/reports/2017/Q1/DangoteCement_Q1_2017ResultsFINAL.PDF On the second last slide it says " replacement of diesel getsets by June/July", so the assumption that Dangote will start to use gas in September looks reasonable I would say. So, once again, to summarise my view on WRL: after many very frustrating years, waiting endlessly on the development of the domestic gas market in Tanzania, the company is currently in a very good position. Current gas sales will allow the company to pay off its debt as planned (debt free in 2019), and the company can increase gas production immediately, once demand increases, which is expected to gradually start this year (August?). In 2018, Kinyerezi 1 expansion and Kinyerezi 2 will come online, which will also use Mnazi Bay gas, increasing gas rates to > 80 MMscf/d At 80 MMscf/d, quarterly net income after tax (from gas sales and TPDC receivables) will be around US$ 12 mln. Not bad, for a company valued at GPB 43 mln..... If you look at the competition: Orca has publically stated that they want the Tanesco arrears (80 mln) cleared before they will hook-up wells to the new Songo Songo facilities. AEX, as you know, only has KN-1 connected to the facilities, which seems to have some problems already. So there is currently no competition. By the way: don't expect many other comments from WRL shareholders on this forum (this forum is indeed dead). If you want to read more active discussions about WRL, go to the Norwegian forums, e.g: http://forum.hegnar.no/ticker.asp?ticker=WRL&expandNode=2330799 Good luck!

Can only agree that WRL's performance has been dissappoining so far. However, with the short term working capital issue solved now and with production expected to increase soon (starting in August after the start-up of the Dangote plant), doubling in 2018, there is a light at the end of the tunnel....

So Crusty, Early March, AEX was at 7.2p. After falling to about 4p earlier this month, the share has now recovered a bit, to 4.9p. WRL did very little in that period. Good for you, I'm glad that you are happy with your shares. At the same time, it doesn't say anything about the future, Let's wait and see what happens. If AEX does not soon come up with a solution to produce their Ntorya gas, I fully expect AEX to start dropping again. So far, AEX is all about hype, WRL is just waiting until gas demand increases in Tanzania, which will happen latest early next year. But good luck with your investments anyway.

Have to say that I do not agree with the results of your model. Your production assumptions are far more optimistic than WRL's own assumptions, and more importantly, your spreadsheet is fundamentally flawed, as it assumes that the balance of the trade receivables will be reduced to zero at the end of the year. It won't happen (it is simply not possible) and the difference is significant: the real cash balance at the end of the year will be several million lower than in your spreadsheet. If somebody uses your spreadsheet, he/she will be disappointed with every financial statement published! For example, you reduce the overall balance of the trade receivables with 4.9 million in Q1 (from received payments), ignoring that there are significant new additions, from the NEW but still unpaid invoices from Q1. If you think that payment speed in Tanzania is improving, then OK, assume that the outstanding trade receivables will be lower at the end of the year (reduced to say $ 5 mln?). Note by the way that with a growing production and unchanged payment speed, the balance will actually grow. Overall, I think it is time to move away from such spreadsheets, and sorry to say, but I do find it misleading as well in its current form. I am convinced that 2017 will a year of gradually improving results (and it could even turn out extremely well if there is a nice surprise, such as the re-start of the Symbion plant, or if WRL can benefit from its ROFR), while 2018 will be excellent, in almost any scenario. No need for confusing spreadsheets therefore!

The compression project seems to be the key anabler to sustain 130 MMscf/d over a longer period, but that project will be carried out over a period of 3 years (2018-2020)

Josik, If I understand it correctly, in your model you would end up with a balance of zero for "trade and other receivables" on 31/12/17, which even in the best possible case is not feasible (i.e. you cannot expect the december gas sales to have been paid on 31/12) However, regarding 2018, I fully agree that WRL should have plenty of money to drill 2 wells. Note by the way that according the reserves assesment, they don't even need to drill a new wells to reach 130 MMscf/d, in 2018. See Table 5.14 (page 87): producing 15.1 Bcf/year WRL share in 2018 (=130 MMscf/d) with a well count of 5. Total Capex spent in 2018 (see table 5.9, page 82) is 8.5 mln (100%) so only 2.6 mln WRL share!! Personally, apart from drilling a well in Mozambique in 2018, I do hope that WRL will drill another exploration well in Mnazi Bay that year. 2018 will be great, no doubt! :-) The compression project seems to be the key enabler (accelerate that project), but w

Josik, Indeed more similar. I guess the "trade and other receivables" are the outstanding invoices (Nov & Dec invoice for TPDC, the rest for Tanesco). In my model I have kept this post the same (hence a stable but permanent delay of ca. 2 months, for payments from TPDC). If you take that post out, your numbers are practically the same as mine.

Hex, Although I respect Josik's post very much (esp. for his background knowledge and info, also on Hegnar), I actually agree with you that his spreadsheet is a bit too simplistic / optimistic. Also, At this stage I think it is prudent to use conservative assumptions for future gas rates. As a result of to the (unexpected) trade payables to Maurel, I am convinced that WRL will not build up any cash at all this year. However, as a long term investor, I actually like a “manageable cash squeeze” this year, as it will set us up perfectly for 2018, when a doubling of production basically a certainty, if not more. Here are some numbers from my personal NPV model, for 2017: Assuming a flat rate of 45 MMscf/d for the whole of 2017 Income: $ 12.2 mln (gas sales) + $ 10.5 mln (TPDC recoverables) + $ 0.9 mln (line pack volumes) = $ 23.6 mln Expenses: $ 9.2 mln (G&A + P&O expenses) + $ 5.3 mln (debt reduction) + $ 1.64 mln (interest) + $ 4 mln (seismic survey Mozambique) = $ 20.1 mln This leaves about $3.5 mln, which will undoubtedly to towards the $8.7 mln of outstanding trade payables to Maurel (on 31 Dec) and using up the current cash balance of $1 mln, this leaves a gap of $ 4.2 mln for 2017. Note that I see this as a worst case scenario, as the flowrate will not remain flat this year. Especially after the start-up of Dangote in August this year a significant increase can be expected. (Also, I think that the cost estimate for the seismic survey might be a bit on the high side). In any case, WRL has a number of options to close the gap this year: - Increase production (expected, certainly after August) - Reduce G&A costs (also likely, as they did in 2016) - Defer part of trade payables to Maurel to 2017 Altogether I feel that the cash squeeze is absolutely manageable and actually not unhealthy at this stage, while the company is waiting until demand picks up. At the end of this year, WRL’s future will suddenly look very bright: Remaining “trade payables” will be minimal, production will be significantly higher and growing quickly, interest payments will be reduced (to 1.18 mln), and debt will be down to 15.3 mln. Note that Income at 80 MMscf/d will be more than $ 10 mln / quarter (gas sales + TPDC receivables). At 100 MMscf/d (current well potential) this company truly becomes a cash cow. Compare that to AEX..... where 2018 could be a real challenge again, with the money spent in 2017, very little income and basically just future promises....

I noticed a potential new (possibly short term) production opportunity for Mnazi bay, after reading the Aminex annual report (link below), about their Kiliwani well: Page 8: "as a result of continued production... the wellhead pressure is declining and the Company is reviewing possible alternatives for remediation in the near future" If Kiliwani production drops below the minimum required rate to operate the Songo Songo plant, or if the well is shut-in for a workover,it will cause the Songo Songo plant to shut down as well. If the pressure decline is because the reservoir is much smaller than expected, then it's even worse, and bad news for Aminex, but that will be the end of operations at the Songo Songo plant, for a while. In any situation, production from Mnazi Bay will increase, by 15 MMscf/d, at least for the period that the well is being worked over! :-) Link: http://www.aminex-plc.com/FCKuploads/file/press_releases/170406_Preliminary%20results%20year%20ended%2031%20December%202016.pdf

Good to see that production is growing as expected and that Tanesco is catching up on its payments! Also an interesting new presentation: http://hugin.info/136496/R/2095036/792294.pdf Some interesting stuff about future gas demand and the Tembo discovery! With very little capex spending planned in 2017, WLR's current (and long term) liabilities will be dropping quickly!

Dangote and 3 other factories will start to use natural gas in 2017: Bakhresa fruit processing, Goodwill ceramic and Coca Cola: http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/magazine/businessweek/Dangote--3-other-factories-to-use-natural-gas-2017--TPDC/1843772-3514816-n5qbhvz/index.html Goodwill ceramic started production on 16 March, here are some videos of tiles being produced: https://www.facebook.com/henry.liu.75098/posts/1190846447681397 All excellent news for WR! Let's hope production will reach 80 MMscf/d by year end!

"In March 2016, Sumitomo had begun construction on the 240MW Kinyerezi natural gas-fired combined cycle power plant in Tanzania. Planned to be commissioned in early 2018, the power plant will be handed over to Tanesco in September 2018" http://geothermal.energy-business-review.com/news/sumitomo-begins-construction-on-new-geothermal-power-facility-in-indonesia-270317-5772096

Correction: Not KN-1 but NT-1

Ha ha, looking at your message history, your post on the AEX got deleted, indeed! It's truly unbelievable what a ramp-fest the AEX board has become; I just can't believe the number of very misleading posts, while normal/cautious/critical posts get deleted. It will be interesting to watch what happens, when the reserves news comes out (<0.1 bcf recoverable reserves, perhaps even significantly lower (0.05 Bscf?), as I wonder if KN-1 would actually flow with a normal backpressure) The only thing that surprizes me with AEX, is that they haven't issued any new shares yet. Maybe the company doesn't dare to do it at this stage (to obvious ramping?) or perhaps the "zubs" don't like a regular dilution? That could be a problem for AEX...