Member Info for mick2020

Cperkin, Fair enough. At the same time though, if there is no farm out and if if NT-3 is dry, it might well be bye bye Aminex.... Far too risky for me, given the already high market cap....

Very good news, even though I suspect that this covers the payment as announced in March (paid early april) plus a single new payment at the end of April.... Producing 77 MMscf/d in April is excellent though, and more than I expected. With payments coming in, it is really time though for some news about the office move and the licence renewal in Mozambique!

I disagree CP, in my view WRL is in a vastly better situation that AEX at the moment, and the latest RNS underpins it once again. AEX hasn�t received any payments since the beginning of this year, their production is close to zero and it will take years to increase, while it even depends on the results of future wells. AEX alos needs cash again. AEX is very good at making promises though.... unfortunately all speculative and sometimes misleading hype in my view, and as long as AEX doesn�t deliver on any of them, WRL remains in a far better situation. Let�s see if AEX will deliver a farm out in the near future, for a good price.I hope for you that they will, but I very much doubt it.

Not a rant Tanzania, simply my honest opinion. I find a remuneration package of US$ 423K for Jay in 2017, with another 30 mln share options simply outrageously high, for a company that barely produces enough gas to light a barbeque right now, and as I have written many times before, I don't think this will change any time soon. To me Aminex is a company that is very good at promising a wonderful future, without delivering on it. In fact, I think a lot of news they bring out is misleading: think of all the nonsense about the early production system, the easy to install Kiliwani compressor, the huge reserves, etc. etc. I also don't believe that there will be a farm out anytime soon. To me, It is truly amazing that the company is valued at GBP 95 mln. Twice the value as WRL, which is currently in a vastly better position. So I actually don't care what Eclipse, the LSE forum guys or anybody else thinks of Aminex. I think it is highly overvalued, and my "strong sell" view is, again, my honest opinion. As soon as the situation changes, I will adjust my view, if necessary. I just don't expect it...... meanwhile, enjoy the AEX forum and let's hope that I am simply wrong.....

A package amounting to US$ 423K for Jay in 2017, with another 30 mln share options that he can exercise at a price above 1.34p, in the next 12 months. Truly amazing... Makes you wonder when AEX will start to generate any genuine shareholder value, apart from the hyping up... Perhaps in 2020?? AEX really has become a religion.... amazing how much faith you guys have!

How nice! WRL is beating my expectations at the moment, for the 2nd month in a row! I didn't expect that we would reach a monthly average production of 80 MMscf/d in February, and I didn't expect that payments would exceed $3 mln in March already! Very encouraging! With Dangote starting up this months, maybe we can stay around 80 MMscf/d in April as well? (normally there's a production decline in the 2nd quarter due to the hydropower plants kicking in in after the rainy season)

I was happy to hear that the March payments have been made. The amount will be announced separately next week. If TPDC manages to keep up it payments until the start of the new budget year in Tanzania (1July?) I think the risk of late payment is significantly reduced!

...management has BECOME... aargh...

I think management has very conservative after several years of overpromising (und under delivering). However, with 80 MMscf/d production in February (yes, 100%...), and Kinyerezi II, Dangote and Kinyerezi I expansion at the end of the year increasing demand further, 100 MMscf/d in Nov/Dec sounds very achievable I would think. I wonder if Geoff will mention anything about the March payments during the conference call. It would not surprise me if he'll leave it to the new management to report out about this next week.

Correct Vike. Good for a total cash flow of more than 4 mln per month, WRL share, according to my estimates. And moving to 130 MMscf/d (100%) in 2019!

As long as the TPDC PAYMENTS keep coming in as scheduled, I am very happy!

Very few surprises. Makes sense to request an appraisal license extension in Mozambique at this stage, and given the civil unrest in the area last year ( reduced/resolved now I understand), I fully expect that this will be granted indeed. Average production is currently ca. 48% higher than in 2017 already (72.5 MMscf/d in Jan/Feb 2018 vs. 49.1 in 2017) so 2018 should be an excellent year. Pity perhaps that we won't get a Q1 and Q3 update any longer. By the end of this year, WRL will be a different company with a significant cash balance, low debt, production around 100 MMscf/d and a very healthy monthly income. As long as the TPDC keep coming in as scheduled, I am very happy!

Quite the opposite Tanzania, I think Eclipse Investments is a very smart company. Their parent company Zubair holds 29.9% of Aminex so I understand, so they all understand the situation in Tanzania very well. They also know the value of a high share price for a company that needs money... All I expect is that this �possible transaction� will not be completed anytime soon..... It�s time for fund raising first. The share price needs to be stable and Nyuni is a perfect card to play for that. If the transaction will actually ever be completed can be decided after that... Just don�t get depressed or take it personal, it�s only business! But good luck anyway, let�s hope that I�m just too cynical...

Tanzania, Unfortunatey, I fail to see why any near term gas consumption forecast is relevant for Aminex. Aminex produces barely enough to light a barbeque right nie, and it seems that it will take a long time before this will fundamentally change. OK, they might get Kiliwani back for a few months, but even that looks uncertain given the time it takes to install a compressor. Ntorya remains stranded as long as ther is no pipeline, which could easily take several years. Yes, you are right, a farm out of Nyuni COULD bring some money... but then, it could also lead to absolutely nothing (apart from a nice jump in share price in the short term.... besides, as LNG in Tanzania is at least a decade away, I wonder how much anybody would offer anyway for a stake) To me Aminex is a company that is very good at promising a wonderful future, without delivering on it. Their RNS�s are also amazing: the last write off of Kiliwani reserves and very modest NT-1, NT-2 and NT-3 resources was nicely masked by news of a huge increase in highly uncertain exploration resources in the wider Ntorya area... But indeed, if you like a roller coaster and don�t mind the risk of losing your money, then AEX is a great company. WRL is far more �boring�..... the only thing that matters is how quickly production is ramped-up to 130 MMscf/d, how large the invoices are that the company receives and what will happen with the Tembo farm out in Mozambique.... If you like more certainty and don�t like the risk of losing money, I think WRL is by far the more attractive company!

Also fully agree HY, I have been expecting a capital raising for a while now. The tweets earlier this year also pointed to that. To me it looks as if the company is desperate to keep the shareprice stable right now (around 3p) in the absense of any real progress. But amazing to see the euphoria on the AEX forum. I have to say AEX truly excels is selling future promises.... if they materialise or not is a whole different matter!

Thanks HY, agree with your comments. My only issue is that the enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA) is probably more interesting for potential buyers of the company, while the P/E ratio is more visible for private investors, and gets quoted almost everywhere (incl. this website). As both indicators look very good at flowrates > 80 MMscf/d, it doesn�t really matter which one you use...

Thanks for your comments. Highyield, the problem I have with including the TPDC receivable is that these payments will come to an end at sone point (early 2019?), and more importantly, that most of it will be used to pay off debt. But saying that, my P/E numbers still look very good. Assuming indeed that all other costs are fixed, I calculated a P/E of 8.5 at 80 MMscf/d, with a further improvement to 7.3 with all debt has been paid off (so without the 350k interest charges as in Q3). As it seems more and more likely that we will produce at 100 MMscf/d in the second half of this year, I think the P/E ratio at that rate is actually more important: my numbers: 5.0 with current interest payments, improving to 4.6 with zero debt. At 130 MMscf/d (2nd half 2019?) it starts to become pretty crazy: between 3.2 and 3.0... All in all, based on these numbers I think a doubling of the share price this year is more than justified. Once we achieve 100 MMscf/d, and with a clear sight on producing 130 MMscf/d another 50% increase is even realistic.... And if a P/E of 12-15 is suitable (I agree), then the price should increase even further! Good times ahead! (Just wish it would go a bit quicker...)

While we are waiting on the Q4 numbers (and much more importantly: news on the plans ahead...), I have kept myself "entertained" with some number crunching regarding future P/E ratios, if one ignores any upsides such as Tembo or rates beyond 130 MMscf/d. At 60 MMscf/d (as in Q3), the number is not great, but this changes pretty dramatically at higher flowrates. Before I share my numbers, has anybody else looked at this? What do you feel is a normal P/E ratio for a small cap oil producer operating in a country like Tanzania?

From 4150 MW now to 30 GW in 2020??? Articles like these only show how utterly unrealistic the targets are of the Tanzanian government, or how little the reporter understands of the power business.... Did you know that world�s largest power plant (not a dam) generates �only� 7965 MW? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Thanks MikkelSchmidt, The sooner we reach a production rate above 100 MMscf/d the better, and this looks like another opportunity to me, so great news! :-)