Member Info for mick-b

HEADING S/B "STRONG $ adds £5m pre-tax profits for every 1% in the DOLLAR/POUND exchange rate."

EXTRACT FROM AHT Q3 REPORT:- "Fluctuations in the value of the US dollar with respect to the pound sterling have had, and may continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and results of operations as reported in pounds due to the majority of our assets, liabilities, revenues and costs being denominated in US dollars. The Group has arranged its financing such that, at 31 January 2016, 91% of its debt was denominated in US dollars so that there is a natural partial offset between its dollar-denominated net assets and earnings and its dollar-denominated debt and interest expense. At 31 January 2016, dollar-denominated debt represented approximately 64% of the value of dollar-denominated net assets (other than debt). Based on the current currency mix of our profits and on dollar debt levels, interest and exchange rates at 31 January 2016, a 1% change in the US dollar exchange rate would impact annual pre-tax profit by approximately £5m."

Hi Vi, Thanks for your extensive reply ...... that show key indicators pointing to a healthy US economy. The main concerns seems to be "the skills shortage" and a "stronger dollar". An increasingly strong dollar is a real threat to most dollar pegged or part pegged currencies, especially in the Far East. To a lesser degree, all currencies are affected when the the worlds reserve currency strengthens. Plus all commodities (except maybe Gold/Silver) priced in $'s, drop. This often results in Foreign stock markets falling overnight resulting in another bad day for all exchanges. . But these falls are normally short lived....until the next potential US interest rate rise becomes apparent. Cheers.

"Oil price" "Oil price bulls have a long three weeks ahead of them as they wait anxiously for the meeting in Doha on 17th April. It is not an exaggeration to suggest that there is much hanging on its success and as I mentioned last week, even a successfully talked up meeting then has to deliver and delivery has never been oil producing nations strongest suit. We already know that a number of key exporters such as Iran and Libya are staying at home and others may be in attendance in name only, the meeting that counts more is on June 2nd… Between now and the 17th there are three sets of inventory data due and at a time when stocks they are a brimming and refineries in maintenance mode ahead of the upcoming driving season, banana skins await. After last weeks huge gain, analysts are expecting something over 3m barrels this week starting tonight. Finally, the oil price finally last week lost its prop of a weak greenback as Fed hawks took the upper hand and made an April rate rise more of a likelihood than previously thought." One of the best oil Analysts I follow... Cheers

After a massive 6 week market rally where the pro's replaced short positions with longs, profit taking before the Easter recess is understandable. AHT is cyclical ....with a high VIX.....which exaggerates market movements. As you rightly say 'she's a bouncy lady". Cheers,

Thanks for this bonus issue....as always..helpful. Cheers Vi....

Thanks Vi, Agreed.....as little if any URI/AHT reaction. One months figures in isolation is..well almost meaningless. Bloomberg making a scare story with little substance. Posted it as the drop was well below forecasts. Cheers

U.S. home resales fell sharply in February in a potentially troubling sign for America's economy which has otherwise looked resilient to the global economic slowdown. The National Association of Realtors said on Monday existing home sales dropped 7.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.08 million units, the lowest level since November. Sales have been volatile and prone to big swings up and down in recent months following the introduction in October of new mortgage regulations, which are intended to help homebuyers understand their loan options and shop around for loans best suited to their financial circumstances. February's decline weighed on investor sentiment, with the S&P 500 stock index falling after the data was released. Sales fell across the country, including a 17.1 percent plunge in the U.S. Northeast. Economists had forecast home resales decreasing 2.8 percent to a pace of 5.32 million units last month. Sales were up 2.2 percent from a year ago. The median price for a previously owned home increased 4.4 percent from a year ago to $210,800. The housing report runs counter to data showing strong job growth and a stabilization of factory output, which had taken a hit from weaker demand overseas and a strong U.S. dollar.

Deutsche have just started coverage of AHT. Could this explain the divergence .....not up to speed.... so incorrect modelling etc..

Updated March 17, 2016 5:36 p.m. ET Caterpillar Inc. trimmed its first-quarter estimates for revenue and profit, but the company left its forecast for 2016 unchanged in the midst of continued weak demand for its construction and mining equipment. The first-quarter revision puts more pressure on the company to deliver better results in the second half of the year to reach its full-year guidance. Caterpillar on average registers 51% of its annual revenue in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Analysts predict the company will now have to exceed that average to reach the $42-billion midpoint of its projected 2016 revenue range of $40 billion to $44 billion. “The question remains whether this revised guide is adequately conservative or if [second-half revenue] remains a stretch,” said Ann Duignan, an analyst for J.P. Morgan Chase.

Thanks Vi Just as well then, that AHT has a far smaller exposure in the UK and none in the moribund Eurozone. Closer correlation to the Amercian market place is welcomed so long as Trump does not prevail....but that's next year. impressive recovery...so far Cheers....

Tracking the FTSE upwards but unable to breakthrough through the £8 barrier. As least it seems to have stabilised . Hopefully the beginnings of a recovery to £9

"Expectations had been high, and to be fair the ECB delivered at the top of the range. Traders though are a cynical bunch, and the extent of stimulus measures was taken as a signal of how worried the ECB was about the current state of affairs in Europe, as opposed to how determined it was to help improve the outlook." URI ended UP 3%....expect a slow recovery for AHT. Spring has arrived,...enjoy. Cheers Vi...

Judging by the markets and the $40 increase in the price of gold since 13-30pm. Still early days....

Yet another desperate short term fix. Corrosive for Banks. Risk that Bank lending decreases. Hopefully Gold will rise to $1500 when these ECB measures fail again.

Hi optrade, It could be that Deutsche (660p) and Credit Suissue (770p) are pricing in a near recession in the States. Obviously AHT being highly cyclical would be adversely affected. Without purchasing these expensive reports it's just my take, but it could explain these wildly different targets. .

Thanks Vi for listing the positives which were mainly absent from the Credit Suisse note. I knew about the huge US transportation/infrastructure Bill.....but didn't known it had been passed. It's amazing that with $20+ trillion of debt the US continues pilling on debt, regardless. Using the worlds's reserve currency. But there will be a day of reckoning ...maybe not in our lifetime, though. Thanks again for your daily US concise bullet points bulletin. Extremely helpful for me and many others... Cheers, Mick

Worries about the US construction equipment supply market have prompted broker Credit Suisse to downgrade plant hire company Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT). The Swiss broker said it believed risks were building around rental rates in the US, causing it to reduce its rating on Ashtead to 'underperform' with a 770p target, down from 1300p. Credit Suisse said the sharp contraction in construction activity in emerging markets and Canada was likely to result in sustained pressure on used-equipment prices in the US, which are a key determinant of rental rates. "Compounding this, key barometers of US non-residential construction demand suggest that the current non-residential upcycle could be weaker and shorter than some believe," the broker said. Ashtead owns A-Plant in the UK and Sunbelt in the US. OTT OR NOT? Cheers

Ashtead's shares slumped after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to 'underperform' from 'outperform' and slashed the price target to 770p from 1,300p.

Stock in Ashtead has come off sharply since their December highs, a third of that just yesterday following its third quarter numbers. Yet unless one is "very gloomy" on the US economy and its non-residential construction sector, from which the company extracts the majority of its profits, then that is hard to justify, The Times's Tempus said. The company's decision to slash its budget for capital expenditures appears to have been the immediate trigger for the share price fall. However, in reality the bulk of the reduced spend can be accounted for by the end of London-based Ashtead programme to replace old equipment. Lower capital spending would also boost cash flow and the market expected a "hefty" dividend increase at the end of 2016, Tempus added. True, revenue growth slowed down to 14% in the third quarter, but it was still seen by the company expanding by between 10% to 15% in the next financial year. The share price fall was "well overdone", "buy" said Tempus.