Member Info for michaelmouse

I'd be pretty confident it's a Director buy. I'd guess around £22,000 worth. It is guesswotk though.

Yes Iceland is a great client for Trakm8.

As regards share price, over the years I've found that you can only really buy meaningful stakes in illiquid micro-caps when the shares are bumping up and down around their lows i.e. nobody is interested and nobody wants them. Take SAL (I company I know well), probably written off by most or certainly forgotten. However, a bit of transformational news yesterday and the shares ended the day up over 200%. If Trakm8 were to do something similar then given the illiquidity in the shares (like SAL) it's very probable that the shares would behave similarly.

dc2 - I can see that microlise have a relationship with Sainsburys Argos which in itself is interesting, but do you have a link regarding their relationship with the whole Sainsburys organisation?
https://www.microlise.com/news/argos-adds-microlise-to-deliver-real-time-delivery-information-to-customers/
I agree with your overall sentiment. Interestingly Trakm8 recently extended their contract with Bibby Distribution who also appear as a client of Microlise on their website.
https://www.commercialfleet.org/news/truck-news/2020/04/20/bibby-distribution-extends-agreement-to-use-trakm8-tracking
Microlise (like Trakm8) have some pretty heavyweight clients, I'd imagine that Trakm8's optimisation software and other solutions would be of interest to those clients as well (and vice versa).
I hope Trakm8 can successfully continue to recover for the remainder of this year and start to grow significantly in 2021/2022, but yes Microlise could be a possible suitor?

hTTps://www.trakm8.com/articles/improving-home-shopping-delivery-with-route-optimisation/
Given the Iceland example, you can see how their relationship with Sainsburys might develop. Their optimisation software is not only high margin, but leads to all the bells and whistles telematics solutions Trakm8 provide. ROI for clients is hugely impressive. Given the current climate I'd be surprised if they don't land one or two other major clients in the not too distant future.

Yes I agree. A few possible catalysts. 1) Good/reasonable forecast for the full year 2) Other major contracts like the recent Sainsburys news 3) Updates regarding the AAs plans for further significant investment in Smart Breakdown and other telematics roll outs.

Given Monday's interims and the positive tone in the report coupled with the excellent news regarding the AA yesterday, I think anything below 50p is very good value for Trakm8 shares (50p is a market cap. of just £25m).

I expect and am hopeful that upward momentum will continue for some time yet!

Little tick up. Any volume will move this quickly! Interims and AA news slowly being digested by the market. Getting more confident now that this is a great recovery play.

"The AA Directors are confident that the AA Group's service and digitally-led strategy, focusing on innovation and delivering excellent customer service, will ensure that the AA continues to adapt to market conditions and stay ahead of its competitors. In addition, the AA Directors believe that ongoing investment in its digital platform, including the AA app, will continue to improve members' and customers' experience and help nurture further loyalty to the AA brand."

A big part of this is using Trakm8's products and services!!!!

Recommended bid for the AA this morning. Excellent news for Trakm8. Reading through the rationale it appears that the AA intend to push forward with their current plans:-

"However, the Consortium believes that the AA has been held back as a result of underinvestment and high levels of debt. The Consortium intends to inject additional funds into the AA to deleverage the business and provide it with the operational freedom to drive the business forward, to better serve its customers and capitalise on its considerable strengths."

I expect we'll now begin to see a greater push with Smart Breakdown and the other numerous initiatives they'd started with Trak pre-covid and pre-bid distractions.

I think the new owners (if the deal goes through) intend to inject significant cash resources into the AA to primarily reduce the debt burden and hence enable the AA to fund future growth. Given the AA's level of indebtedness, it's probably a reasonable offer? Other refinancing options would probably wipe existing shareholders out? What about SB? We can't be certain of course. From my perspective as a shareholder in Trakm8, I think that the uncertainty regarding the AA's fate and that of SB is more than baked into the share price already?
The appeal to me is that if the never ending AA saga is finally settled (tomorrow possibly?) and SB remains a focus then Trakm8 shares will begin to rerate quite quickly, particularly if Trakm8 can deliver their significant uplift in revenues in the second half.
As we know markets hate uncertainty but if the AA situation is resolved and Trakm8 can provide forward guidance early in the new year then we'll be happy shareholders. I believe the downside risk is more limited because the current share price already has significant bad news in it.

Interims released. Excellent. Results pretty much in-line with my previous post although slightly better. Adjusted losses reduced to £0.3m, cashflow up to £2m, connections up to 253,000 and climbing. Most importantly, "the Group expects revenue in the second half to be significantly higher than the first half given current orders, even with a reasonable downside scenario taken into account for the ongoing impact of Covid-19." Overall tone of the report is very upbeat. Recovery looks to be taking shape.

Yes I'd agree that a takeover is a worst case scenario e.g around 50p. However, I don't think Microlise would find it straightforward. I think a number of big players would be interested in bidding. Trakm8 have a blue-chip client list including the AA, Iceland, Sainsburys, Scottish Power, E.On, Direct Line, Lexis Nexis etc. It's very impressive and would add massive value to another company. Personally I believe that greater rewards lie ahead if they can turn their financial performance around. As you say, QTX are currently valued 24 times higher on similar revenues.

Thanks. Far more civilised board.

My focus will be on the forward looking statement, and any change in number of installed devices since the mid Sept. figure of 248,000.

No need to predict what we'll get. They told us in the Sept. trading statement two weeks before the half-year end. They pretty much gave us all the key figures so:-
Revenues should be around £7.2m, gross profit £4.3m/£4.4m (so not dissimilar to last year with the 8% improvement in gross margin to around 60%). Overheads will be roughly £4.8m (reduced by 30% from last year). That gives a loss of around £400,000-£500,000 at the interim stage which is a massive improvement on last year's adjusted loss of £1.5m, and tallies with their statement that adjusted loss is 75% down on last year. The unadjusted loss before tax will be just under £1m (55% down on the unadjusted £2.2m loss last year).