Member Info for michaelmouse

Well that's not a bad premium to the current share price. Bitter sweet for shareholders. Imagine the valuation if they could have hit their targets. Still given the recent disappointment and worrying debt pile, a recommended bid at 9.5p isn't to be sniffed at.

GIven their client list and recurring revs not surprising that someone has eventually stepped up. Pity it didn't happen earlier but great result for those picking up shares at current prices.

Hello it's been quite a while and I'm flattered that you'd be interested in my opinion. Thanks for that. Quite frankly though, in recent years my micro-cap pics have been pretty dire. Certainly in terms of share price performance. Even those micro-cap companies I have chosen that appear to be progressing quite well have often seen their share prices trashed. In reality unless a small company is growing exponentially then I think that investor appetite for risk has waned in recent years. Not too surprising I suppose when you see many well established companies share prices also near rock bottom e.g. LGEN pays a 9% dividend and isn't disappointing with results. There are quite a few you could pick. Anyway I digress.

As regards Trakm8 I've no idea why it's priced to go bust. It has great clients and revs around £20m with a market cap. circa £3m. Recent noises from the company have been positive. However, it has been a serial disappointer in recent years so skepticism no doubt plays some part. Debt also features heavily for the bears. I could ramble on but my guess as to the future is as good as yours (probably a lot worse given my recent track record).

If I have a short term concern it's that the interims are later than last year (rarely a good sign) and in the last 2 sessions the sp has gone down (hopefully it will stop before zero). If you believe in conspiracies then there was a 1 trade earlier. Results tomorrow?

On the flip side, If they make a full year profit circa £1m then it's surely a short term 3-bagger given the p/e ratio would be a ridiculous 3. Also I think I'm well overdue a multi-bagger again. Maybe it'll be second time around with Trakm8, although my eternal optimism is maybe indicative of "the triumph of hope over experience".

Anyway good luck to all of us and keep smiling whatever happens.

Best wishes.

Think I'll just stick with Twitter from now on. ATB.

"I for one would be happy with 50p plus a premium."

"Let's go with your 50p plus say a generous premium of 10p - that values Trak at around £30m, still five times less than Micro (which doesn't seem justifiable to me, but there you go)"

You appear to be disagreeing with yourself? Perhaps it's the heat ;)

"£4 again? No chance. £1 could however be on the cards."
If Trakm8 can grow and achieve Microlise's market cap. then the shares would be £3.30. If they can consistently grow and achieve QTX's market cap. then £4.75. Isn't that the risk reward here? You've got two very similar companies that have achieved high market caps. If Trakm8 can turn things around then who knows where they'll end up? They've done it before, hopefully they can do it again. One thing is for sure they're worth more than £8m.

If Microlise do eventually attempt to acquire Trakm8 then I'd expect an offer that combines cash with shares in Microlise, but certainly above the 30p-40p mark.

30p to 40p would value Trakm8 between £15m to £20m. I might be wrong but I just can't see that happening when Microlise are floating at a market cap. of £156m. Not sure how Raza would convince Trakm8 board that Microlise is ten times more valuable unless Trakm8 got into very serious financial difficulties? Personally, I'd much prefer Trakm8 to make a profitable recovery, and be valued similarly to Microlise i.e. share price around £3.

I wouldn't really like to guess NoSugar. I hope you're right though and they record healthy profits and cashflow.

I should add that the possibility of a buyout always exists whether it comes from Microlise or elsewhere. Investors shouldn't lose sight of Trakm8's recurring revenues which stood at £9.4m end of March (only a slight fall of £0.4m on the previous year). These are gold dust to potential acquirers with the costs they could strip out of the business.

Hi dc2_ In brief I didn't think that the full year report offered much that we didn't already know. I think this is understandable given the uncertain nature of the worldwide business environment since lockdowns and seemingly endless restrictions were imposed on everybody. When did our latest lockdown end, I'm losing track (no pun intended)? It wasn't that long ago though so it'll take some months before trakm8 can gauge the effect on trading.
As for the Microlise IPO, it just reminds me of what should and could be a sensible valuation for Trakm8.
Trakm8 are priced to go bust, if they recover then the valuation will be multiple times the current level.

A glowing reference from the Fleet Manager at Energy Assets:-

Ben Holleyhead, Fleet Manager at Energy Assets, explains: “The roll-out of RH600 across our 200-strong fleet represents a significant investment from Energy Assets into driver safety.

“To serve our customers, our engineers drive to all corners of the country. The Trakm8 RH600 solution will help create a positive environmental impact via efficient route planning by not only reducing engineers’ time on the road, but also fuel used and therefore emissions.

“Also, having the reassurance that they are following safety protocols and avoiding actions that could cause danger to themselves or other road users is absolutely essential. The system will provide valuable insight into our driver’s behaviour when out on the road to ensure we maintain a careful and considered driving approach.

“The integrated camera enables us to keep track of our driver’s habits, helping us spot potential training opportunities to further bolster the safety of our fleet. The RH600 also proves its worth from an insurance standpoint, with the device providing crystal clear footage from the driver’s perspective to help adjudicate during accident claims.

“After a successful trial period, we are excited to be rolling out the RH600 across our whole fleet. The feedback from drivers so far has been overwhelmingly positive and we’re looking forward to seeing the benefits the system can deliver to the business longer term.”

With respect dc2 your calculations are far too simplistic. Firstly, they have been meeting the interest payments on these loans and (from TS) capital repayments don't start again until September 2021.
My optimistic reading of the recent trading statement is that HSBC were prepared to renew facilities until October 2023 which gives Trakm8 ample time to prove that they can return to profitability and continue to generate cash.
As with most companies that carry debt (and significant numbers do for obvious reasons) I doubt that all debt will be cleared within the specified time period, but if Trakm8 can show that they are recovering, growing, and meeting their covenants then any loan providers are usually supportive and as is already the case will renew facilities.
There are so many possibilities regarding financing of course, but I'm hopeful that Trakm8 will recover strongly this year. They reported £9.4m of recurring revenues last year which shouldn't be overlooked, and the picture should be rapidly improving this year, in fact they have said that demand in the fleet sector is already improving.
It's clearly not without risks otherwise the share price would be many multiples of where it is now, but I'm optimistic for the many good reasons I've mentioned in the past.

Very pleasing update from Trakm8 despite lockdowns. Net debt reduced by £0.8m (strong cash generation). Connections up 4% to 254,000. Bank facilities all renewed. Confident that financial performance will significantly improve this year. Profitability anticipated. Excellent!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TRAK/contract-award-and-trading-update/14877845

New client win with over a 1,000 RH600 integrated telematics and cameras systems to The Parts Alliance Group. Modest loss for the year (similar to last year). Confident that the growth expected before lockdowns will be delivered next year. Not bad result imo. Recovery still in tact.

Not sure how long Smart Insurance has been offered by the AA? Not that long I'd imagine, but nice to see it's offered to any driver over the age of 21. Coupled with Smart Breakdown this really should help with the number of device orders from the AA. All looks promising now the AA will have additional funds pumped into it :-
https://www.theaa.com/car-insurance/smart-insurance
https://www.theaa.com/breakdown-cover/smart-breakdown

Yes it is great news for Trakm8 now that the AA can push forward without distractions. Excellent. Hilarious that the sp ticked down by 0.25p.

https://www.trakm8.com/news/update-covid-19-customer-statement-from-trakm8/

Updated blog last week for any interested parties:-
https://michae1mouse.blogspot.com/2021/01/5-micro-caps-that-will-10-bag-or-more.html

https://www.trakm8.com/news/trakm8-announces-new-senior-hire-to-lead-insurance-division/
John Watkins, Executive Chairman at Trakm8, added: “Adam’s appointment is an important step forward for Trakm8’s insurance division and a signifier of our ambitious growth plans for 2021. His extensive experience, working with some of the biggest names in automotive insurance, will be a key asset for our business.”

They could still be acquiring as well so might not hear just yet. We'll see.