RE: Why sell HAV to NCM when we could give it to them26 Apr 2020 21:21
Hi Trucky, No not been here long, but like everybody I am extremely grateful for the hard work and research done by many generous posters on this board. I use this and my own research, and do a lot of number crunching and try to work out how this could go and the potential best option for me, and how this may go.
I have been in GGP for 3 months have approx 1.5 Million at 5p ave, so £75K invested, I would be more than happy with an annual div of 25K per year. Obviously I have no clue as to what will happen, and it may be that Newcrest but HAV out 100% and pay GGP a fixed fee for that, however, as everybody states the amount of Gold in Hav is an unknown so calculating a fair amount for the fixed price is impossible at present.
If GH negotiated a royalty per OZ it would not matter how big HAV is, as we would be paid for every ounce mined.
Looking at numbers for this (again pretty much guess work) but figures that have been used by various posters.
10Moz Resource
AISC = $900 (nearly midway between conservative 1124 used in he investor presentation, and $600 suggested as feasible by Paddy).
Using a POG of $1500 (likely to be low if the actual calculation was calculated annually on the average POG based on sales for the year of mining)
Annual Production of 750K Oz per year (it has been suggested that Telfer could be able to produce 1Million Oz per year)
1500 - 900 = 600 * 750,000 = 450,000,000 * proposed 20% Royalty = $90,000,000 per annum
90 Million / 4.2 Billion (Shares) = 0.0214 USD or approx 1.71 Pence Per share annual dividend 20% of current SP).
If we had 10Moz mined @ 750K per annum = 13.33 Years
I would be extremely happy with 13*25K for my initial £75K outlay, and that is for HAV alone.
Just think if we had 20Moz mined at 1Moz Per Annum with a POG of £1900 - $200 Million per annu, for dividends (4p per share) - you do the maths on your holding
Where do I get the 25pence from (what companies pay a dividend of greater than 6.67%), current share price * 3 = 26.5 Pence
I was just putting an alternative discussion point out there on how income could be maximised.