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Let me put this another way.......

If people see so much opportunity with the Avacta Saliva lateral flow test, why do you not also see the same potential with Mologic's lateral flow saliva test?? If Avacta's is trying to grab every spare bit of capacity then same problem for Mologic's. The difference is we will brand Mologic's as out own and make a healthier profit. The other difference is Mologic have a track record of delivering tests.

How long has it taken ODX to go from 200k to 500k? They haven't even got to 1m yet. These machines and production lines don't sit on supermarket shelves and come with operators. ODX will increase capacity, that is certain in my mind, but im also certain it will be for UK RTC and Mologic tests well before they can offer their services elsewhere.
If you think AVCT test will need that much capacity, why would you not think our Mologic one will? Where we will benefit from having our own branded product?

Everything they talk about is conditional on one very big important thing...... getting a validated approved test to market, and it is clear sensitivity is going to be questionable. People are treating it as if the chances of success are 100% which quite simply is far from the case. People have been saying there, they are in Condor which means approval is coming any day and a government order for 100s millions is coming any day. Today's presentation backs up my comments when i tried to argue this on the BB recently. They haven't even got final pilot batches ready for clinical trial yet. The simple fact is Affimers are only proven in the lab and there is a high chance that they may fail to achieve a suitable product. There is so much to be achieved to even get one test available for sale let alone expecting every single lateral flow manufacturer is going to be begging to make them for them. We have been through the very same process with UK RTC.

So why would i be excited about ODX making a their tests? We already have the best antibody test on the market that will likely make out our capacity if we let it, that we will make a better margin on, and we also have Mologic tests. If you had to bet on whether Mologic or Avacta are more likely to have an approved test, you would have to have the company with proven success at shorter odds, expecially with Gates having just made a $27m grant.

My point is, we have things to be excited about that are being massively undervalued. People do not appreciate what a big deal mologic are.

Tricky what i said about Avacta is fairly accurate in terms of where they are in the process and the risk to the downside at the mcap, and the fact that Affimers have never led to a commercial product. I wouldn't say i have spent a lot of time, just given my honest view. Having watched the presentation today and read the results it has only validated my opinions.

Whether you think Avacta will be successful or not, the point is we already have much more exciting products that we will commercialise. How can you get excited about a tie up with a product that is yet to go through clinical trials that at best we might get 30% margin on if we directed our capacity to, when we have products we can make 50% minimum margin on? To put in layman's terms, why would i use 1m capacity to manufacture a test for Avactas to sell, when i can make my own test instead and sell it.
People put Avacta on a pedestal like they have every achieved anything, well they have not and until they have it will only be speculative. Mologic on the other hand have proven track record with a product already used in a Heathrow trial

If they were going to increase capacity, why not increases capacity and make more of your own tests at higher margin!!!!

Question - what is Omega's margin on the Vivisect (Omega) branded mologic tests vs the margin they would get for manufacturing Avacta's test?? Why would you use capacity on a product at low margin at the expense of making your own products at high margin?????
Unless Omega had infinite manufacturing capacity which is clearly not the case, failed in their test developments, which they already have 2 out of 3 approved and track record suggests it will be 3.
BBI and Abingdon have nothing to lose as they have no other deals or entry into the antigen space.
At best Avacta tests are a hedge for investing in ODX as if ODX fails and Avacta get a test to market then of course capacity will be used.

I don't understand why people are getting excited about this, when we have a much better deal with Mologic already in place.

We already have 2 actual tests and 1 competing development test. Where do you think we have capacity for a phantom test that may never happen? Go and actually find out about Mologic and tell me they are not more likely to deliver a test, with $27m of investment from gates?

Mologic are 10 times more credible than Avacta. Why do people think Avacta are going to save our day we already have much better prospects which will max out our capacity

Fake news IMO. They did not mention ODX in the presentation i think the journalist here is making an assumption or stirring.

NT to buy for several minutes now and bid creeping up.... another quick run to 90s possible IMO

I cannot see the MOU being extended. Production is ready to go. They are ready to commercialise. Supply agreement needs to come to secure the supply.

This is exactly the transparency i have been talking about. If the market is comfortable with this price on this transparency then that starts to eliminate some downside risk.

We simply do not know the detail contained in the MOU. But it is in everyone's interest to progress to supply agreements.

If i was to make some deductions, i would say the government first refusal will likely expire.

What has this got to do with another stock. This is purely focused on AVCT. I posted the following regarding the process to get the product to market of 9th September. I got shot down saying its wrong, when it's clear this is the process and Fincapp note and results confirm where they are. I see comments all the time saying approval/sales are due any day here and its clear from today that they are a long way off. It's not a de-ramp its just honest evaluation and if you are comfortable with where they are they good. AVCT are at stage 4 below, you could add a stage 4.5 production of validation batches.

This is the process a self test has to go through. Avct are at stage 3 i believe, so a long way to go.

1 R&D
2 Prototype
3 Initial evaluation
4 Continued performance enhancement
5 Design Freeze
6 Clinical Validation
7 CE Mark
8 Manufacturing scale up and tech transfer
9 PHE/MHRA validation
10 Approval for Professionals Use
11 Commercial roll out for professional use
12 Self test study and validation
13 Self test approval
14 Commercial roll out for individual use

PL75 - er not really everyone is expecting approval any day, government order any day, 100m sales a day any day. Yes you are right the market for covid will be around for many years, so there is no need for everything to be delivered today to be successful but it's not anywhere near as close as people seem to believe.
JDT - It's not a competition, the market will be big enough for any companies that can bring a POC test to market. Just about some honesty about where in the product lifecycle they are and what the chances of success are.

Hopefully the presentation will add further clarity. Popcorn at the ready.

So here's the bit that discloses exactly where they are in the process...... They are still at manufacturing stage, to generate tests for clinical testing in Q4. Clearly a very long way off having a test ready to market.

"We are now supporting Cytiva and our manufacturing partners to finalise technology transfer which will deliver a scaled-up production process that will generate lateral flow test devices for clinical testing. It is essential that a robust process is developed that can produce the antigen test at scale for clinical validation in Q4, and good progress is being made in this regard."

Big week coming. Positive share price action this morning for a Monday morning with no news.

UK RTC MOU expires is just over a week's time, and there will no doubt be a very positive development or two before then.

Mologic Antibody test being commercialised with tech transfer completing. WHO approval could come any day

Mologic Antigen news could come any day

China Food Test self approval could come any day

News on Visitect CD4 orders could come any day with global interest.

There are many companies out there with valuations in excess of that figure, with substantial debts, that are not able to generate the annual profits that ODX can with 2m per week capacity.

*future

£5 is not cuckoo-land at all. Most people at the moment are seeing this as just a short term covid play, but this is a transformation of the diagnostics industry. Tests will be required for many years and they are already looking to the further to ensure they can utilise the capacity they have build. Some of the other tests are much more profitable so if they can build a business that can maintain capacity in the longer term, this is a highly profitable business. 18-14 months down the line, they will have a serious cash windfall as all this profit is free cash flow with no debt. This can provide significant benefits to shareholders.

This is so much bigger than the our test vs your test argument that goes on daily.