Todays musings19 Apr 2020 22:37
Just caught up on todays posts (a lot for a Sunday i might add!) and i just wanted to make 2 points if i may....
"SB talking it up while selling? So what if he is, im sure if we were all honest about 90% of us here have sold/sliced on news after weeks of talking up the share, and then bought back in after the dip (which is no different to what he does), and lets be really honest, 90% of us (myself included) have posted on a sunday "this is going to be huge over the next few days" knowing full well we are selling out on the first rise monday morning, thats the game we play. What rile's people up about SB is the perception that HIS holding may actually affect the sp when he shifts it, while true it may have some underlying affect, those who have been here long enough will remember the days when GGP traded over 1bn shares in a single day, when SB does decide to sell say 50m it will be when good news is out and volume is high so you will hardly notice it. Chances are the Institutions will be buying in, as he moves on anyway.
The second point, ChristopheB put a good post up earler about how the sp always rallies before news and then there is a pull back after the innitial move after news, and how will this time be any different?
While i agree that has (annoyingly) been the case with GGP in the past, i have to point out my observation that sentiment has vastly shifted from trading GGP, to waiting for the "end game / buyout" recently, and its noted that recent good news and satelite updates have seen litte to no retrace, if anything they have increased the rate of acceleration. So will it happen after the 30th? perhaps a smidge, but we know that all the info must be in the public domain for NC to make an offer, and that will mean that they make the offer either as part of, or IMMEDIATELY AFTER one of these updates. Would you risk slicing just after the 30th to make 10% and posiibly miss out on the big one? When its suspended, you're in, or your out.
Like the banks were "too big to fail" I cant help but feel that for many of us, GGP is now "too good to trade"
As we get closer to the end, people tend to hold onto those golden tickets, just a little tighter.