Member Info for meoryou

Hope you are right.
I find it strange it all seems to escalate each weekend,there must be a reason .
It would be nice if it could be resolved in a way to keep everyone happy.
If it was safely resolved and the Iran thing happens with not too much effect on Oil Price,it must be bullish for Oil and BP for most of 2022.

Jezzoo think Biden will have to wrestle a bear if he is trying to out do Putin in the young strong virile stakes.
Think that would be a sight to see.
Think every time Biden says they will invade in next couple of days Putin says to himself OH NO WE WONT. And just enjoys to prove USA wrong again

Mine will be very common on here.
Bought house and could have financed by selling BP shared but would have had big capital gain as zero value shares from BP share match scheme.
Thought take out mortgage as div was covering this with several grand to spare.
Date fed 2010 we all know what happened next.Had to sell shares every quarter just to pay mortgage.
But still have to count myself lucky as people died and injured,money not important compared to that.No one should go to work and not come back.

Tinker had same problem with family members.
Other point needing to be made is petrol has vat on it government making more vat with higher petrol and diesel prices.
Vat also on gas an electric but at a lower rate ,again government making double on these. But do you hear much about that No!
It’s all the bad oil companies

If we get a signal that div is moving upwards ,but more than just 4% a year.
Think 10% per year rise might work, then can see £6-£7 very easily.
Probably not this year, but next year unless oil price collapse,which I do not expect in next 2 years.
Russia always has potential to cause a problem.

Tinker this is exactly what used to happen when oil prices went up earning went up and div went up.
The headlines calling for a Windfall tax are nothing new.
The biggest problem now is that the div is so low any meaningful increase is a large %.
If div was back at what it used to be % increase would not look so bad.
Think is too easy and now very very fashionable to bash oil companies.
It’s always been fashion to bash oil companies when prices are high.
Think oil industry needs a PR exercise to point out the price people happily per litre of bottled water, which does not need drilled for, transported around world then refined.And always there available when you want to top up

Thanks Mark.
Think it’s the dividend policy that will dictate spin the long run.
What I would like is when they start to think about raising div,is they say.
Ok core div is 4p and we will give a performance related bonus each quarter directly related the average oil price that quarter.( so higher oil price higher total div)
So we would all know the div was affordable,and related to oil price in a easy to understand formula.
That’s just my wish ,you may all have your own choice.

At some point some of the missing div comes back think 4p to 5p is very doable. BOD keep saying they look at div every quarter so that must mean something.
At that point expect sp to be £5.
After that think buybacks get expensive and will taper back to a max of half what we are doing now.
If debt has dropped by then costs of debt and div are both lower than before.
So cost to run BP lower.
Also expect more divestments ,with cash to lower debt even further.
By 2025 some earnings starting to kick in from renewables,even if just enough to make this division self finance.
What’s not to like?
Just my opinion and only time will tell

As average oil price per quarter rises,there must come a point where there is really to much cash to carry on with the ratio buyback to div.
I would hope another quarter of paying back debt and then maybe time to adjust to keep a 5% yield.They keep saying they look at div every quarter so I take that as we will raise at some point.
Personally can’t believe that all these buybacks have not moved sp more than what has happened.As long as they keep beating earning estimates the sp is only going one way.(unless the Russians change things,and firmly believe it’s in their interests to keep west guessing)

Been seeing more here in central Scotland lately.
Came past Glasgow Airport Sunday.
Multi storey car pack fullest in 2 years it’s got to mean something for BP.
If only we can get the pesky Russians to behave

Not sure but think oil market and stock market saying Russians only invade at weekends

Think if you actually read instead of your usual fishing I actually said Not saying it’s made up.
What I will say is that Russia is playing games,only they know how deadly they want the games to be everyone else is guessing.
They know what the Americans can see and hear they are not stupid

It’s always hard to second guess the Russians,as they don’t always look at things the way we do.
Just remembered that Boris and Biden are happy to distract from their problems at home.(not saying it’s made up),but it’s convenient for them to have Russia as the bad guy.
Also remember that the intelligence is coming from the same people who gave us Iraq and their WMD ( weapons of mass destruction).and had great difficulty finding
Bin Laden even when hiding nearby,also 9/11.
I know there are Sat images,but those just show lots of equipment.
They say things like the tents with no snow are in use( or have a small heater in them).
Putin has said he will not invade( not sure who I would believe him or Boris).
The best outcome for Russia is to keep the west guessing.
If in 10 days Russia moves the troops out and leave all the heavy equipment they can start it all again any time they want.Meantime just take advantage of higher oil price.
If they do invade they become more predictable,until then they can just have a military exercise any time they like and watch west go silly and oil price rise.
Hope this post dates well as don’t want to wake up tomorrow to an invasion.
All just my opinion which could change with more facts.
Ps if they wanted to be really clever they could buy up all the shares that crash tomorrow,then just say told you so no invasion and sell them for a song

Has a very good article on why BP should not have to pay Windfall Tax.
Found it by google BP news last 24hrs.
If someone reads it and thinks it worth posting link for others, as still learning how to do links

Hope whole thing settles down.
Think there is enough going on with
Brexit,Covid,Energy Crisis ,Inflation,Partygate,Windfall Tax.and my football team being Shi*

Gary like Bumble think you can get more by holding longer unless you have plans for the cash
My crystal ball says week after 22nd March when div paid and price increases as div is reinvested( if you need to sell ) could be good
Just a thought and please do your own thing

Theaky it’s hard to disagree with anything you have said.
I do not think we could have done worse than have a gambler in charge during Covid.Every time he had to decide he just hoped he would get away with it.
From the very beginning of Covid right till now cannot believe how foreign travel has been handled.At beginning was told a story of someone coming back from Vietnam and every where even in shops being temp checked .Arrived Heathrow,expecting temp check and nobody even there.

Theaky
I am not a Green and I welcome what BOD appear to be saying about the reduction in output as they seem to have relaxed it (in my eyes at least)
I welcome profits wherever they come from .
I believe it’s madness to shutdown North Sea then import from across the world.
Even for a Green that should just be stupid .
If you look back my posts you would see at COP 26 I was enquiring about traffic jams with all the greeny bikes and horse and carts( cos how else do they get there if they don’t use oil)
Always open for debate

Harmonica thanks for the spelling lesson I let my spell checker run riot.
I would agree that there are many green projects they could spend the extra cash on.
Some on here are very traditional Oilers and don’t like the Word Green.
It was the BOD who said on earning call in answer to a question a comment on just how much cash they could physically spend on buy back.
Yes debt is still high ,but they paid off 21% in last fiscal year so that’s only 4 years more at these cash flows or less if oil price goes higher.
It’s a nice problem to have
Thanks for you comment

Hi Buffa
Have to concede politics may be a part of div not being seen to increase at present, maybe in summer they can sneak an increase under the radar.
If oil price goes above 100 and stays there it’s going to be hard to use all the spare cash as buybacks and dept reduction, and they can’t afford to be seen with spare cash.Still it’s a nice problem to have.
Thanks for your views,it’s certainly interesting times at BP