Member Info for Medjed

I asked AI for the worst case MAKO value scenario too, still a huge upside from here. here it is:

Short answer: About US$385 million (gross, post‑tax NPV₁₀) in the 1C “worst” contingency case, which implies ≈ US$33 million net to Empyrean (8.5%) — subject to the assumptions below.

As much as I would be ecstatic for EME’s mcap & sp to go to $279m, that is the gross value. No one is going to pay that. The correct valuation is NPV10

💰 Gross Value Before Discounting

If we apply a 10% discount rate to the gross revenue, the gross post-tax NPV₁₀ for the entire field is estimated at US$577 million in the 2C case. Empyrean Energy’s 8.5% stake in this would equate to approximately US$49 million. However, this valuation is contingent on various assumptions, including gas prices, development costs, and fiscal terms.

Bearded

"The farm out scenario has already been priced in, hence the rise a few weeks ago"

How has it (farm-out) been priced in when EME should be able to sell its 8.5% stake for minimum $50m according to ChatGPT?

Current MCAP is only £5m which in USD is $6.8

There's quite a bit of a gap I think.

Looks like they orchestrated that pump to help Mellon get out at a good price, ie not at a loss. Disgusting

You’re twistin’ my mellon man, call the cops 🤣

And also don’t forget to mention the very market makers, financial regulators and big brokers themselves. Pulling out every dirty trick in the book to fleece ordinary investors, whilst protecting jealousy the interests of their billionaire buddies.

From that perspective you can’t blame some little guys trying all they can to get even, day trading, scalping, etc.

They move in quickly because they have been painfully taught by mister market if you stay too long in one place you can not only get burned but in some cases (especially on AIM) you can get buried.

What new short has been opened? All I can see is still the old one from Mangrove, unchanged for months.

Deramping much?

That's very brave of you Banksy, I wouldn't have put all my eggs in one basket. Personally I have spread my modest savings across a few stocks which could multi bag, then if one of them does so sooner than another I can pour those winnings into another potential multi bagger.

ChatGpt talks of a farm-down sale, since those on this board that have been following the stock are confident EME want to sell.

ChatGpt also says 15% will go to the lenders, so even in that case and even if the lower $50m valuation is achieved that still leaves an mcap of around £32m which is 6 to 7 bags from here.

Thanks Hawaii, I forgot where they stated that they are going to sell. I re-read the whole 17 July Gas Sale Agreement RNS this morning couldn't find it in there?

Did they state it in a shareholder meeting or another RNS?

Banksy simply put into your AI how long would it take for EME to sell its stake?

Mine says around 6 months. So if they are selling its going to be Bang! Massive re-rate one day if that RNS lands.

So you’re either in or out.

Its a gamble for sure, are they going to sell or are they going to stick it out till 2027. If latter then I suspect no big re-rate soon.

The big question is will EME decide to sell their stake or wait until production. AI estimates production will start around 2027.

AI thinks the realised MCAP value of EME will be roughly the same whether they sell or once producing. $49m - $75m with a slightly higher potential upside to $100m if they wait till production and Mako turns out to be better than initially estimated.

Based on this seems to me a no brainer to sell now, return is the same except all the risks and costs associated with seeing Mako through to production are avoided.

If Empyrean (EME) were to sell its full 8.5% interest in the Duyung PSC / Mako gas field now—with the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with PLN finalized—here’s a reasoned estimation of what the stake might fetch:

⸻

🔍 Valuation Estimate

• Operator Conrad Asia/WNEL holds 91.5%, and Empyrean holds 8.5%  .

• The Mako field’s 2C contingent resource is approximately 376 Bcf (billion cubic feet), with plateau production set at ~112 MMscfd until PSC expiry in January 2037 .

• Prior valuations under a plausible gas pricing scenario (ICP-linked to Brent) put Empyrean’s 8.5% net NPV₁₀ around US $49 million .

⸻

🔢 Market-Based Multiples / Farm‑down Scenarios

• With the GSA signed (July 2025), this milestone significantly de-risks the asset, likely opening up buyer interest.

• Assuming a farm-down sale at a modest premium (e.g., 1.0 – 1.5× NPV), as is common in PSC farm‐outs, sale proceeds might range from US $50 million to US $75 million for the entire 8.5% stake.

Nice AI breakdown Banksy.

The AI didn’t assess for quick sale value of the 8.5%

I am surprised the market didn’t price EME higher on a quick sale potential.

If its a 70p open on drill results rns I’d be well happy!

I was saving some ammo for RNS day, too scared to go all in before results day, seen too many duster RNSs and been burnt by one or two.

Still have a decent amount to not feel bad about not being all in.

"Conrad have said"

Where have Conrad ever mentioned a valuation of $150m?

Any credible sources?

Nothing online I or AI can find which quotes or values Conrad's stake at only $150m

Back up your claim ;)

If it makes anyone feel any better, those Institutions will be taking a big loss too at 35p or anywhere near that.

Also they will have seen way more information than us, so if they do accept a low 35p offer than we can read between the lines that this was the best option to recover some value.

If they (Institutions) reject, then we will know that the 35p offer is too low and things are not so bad, and a much higher offer is needed, or much higher share price is likely as Wood recovers.

"Question - please can anyone confirm that would happen to the existing shareholders with shares in Wood, based on the current deal?

Considering there has been a massive drop in share price, it would be ridiculous for Wood to close out existing shareholders at major losses."

Any firm offer will be put to us, the shareholders to vote on. So you will get your say.

However, considering that big institutions hold over 80% of all shares, if big institutions have talked to the Board and are happy to accept an offer, then it will be voted through. The rest of us PIs will have to swallow the Institutional decision be it what may.

Now we know why Sidara are desperate to bully this 35p joke offer through. Wood just sold one non-core asset worth 25% of Sidara's entire potential offer $450m bs injection and all.

Can you imagine what the rest of Wood is worth!

At its height back in 2023 the market cap hit £100m when the share price was around 1p

When everyone believed the plant was about to start producing and working perfectly.

So £100m is a good ballpark figure. Now factor in the JV and assume they will want 50% so that reduces the mcap relating to the share price to around £50m

Divide that by the number of shares and voila!

0.065p

Although it did spike to 0.09p on Glencore news so perhaps 0.1p is possible

“Not with the FCA watching”

The FCA watching what? They are about as much use as a chocolate teapot. The amount of crookedness that’s happened on the London market and is still happening and they do nothing.

FCA is beyond a joke. They are just going through the motions. They allow whatever the powerful players want them to allow. Which is pretty much anything 🤣🤣🤣

My prediction is, they will let it open so the share price can bomb and all the shorters can make tonnes of money, inc. Sid I’m sure, then after the carnage when they are all satiated a sensible offer will come in that IIs would accept.

Watch the games commence.