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I guess the saving grace is that the usual market cap of a debt free cash shell on AIM is £3m+

If only they can come to agree with Conrad to a settlement that will at least clear the debt, that itself would be something.

I agree 0.1p is probably the best case outcome here. Right now I’d happily take even 0.065 to move on, so many better stocks flying high now. Must have my head examined for loading so much here lol.

Opportunity cost waiting here is terrible.

And why don’t they use the £1m already raised in July, which is for their Make stake. Considering they haven’t been paying Conrad’s cash calls that money should still be a available to pay the $780k Conrad want, if that is what is needed to satisfy them?

“ Funds raised pursuant to the Placing will be used for ongoing development costs associated with Empyrean's 8.5% interest in the Mako Gas Field and for general working capital.”

Best to ask that again in the morning. The wiser among us think there is a placing coming.

Hope this will be a good thing and mean that Comrad & EME are reaching a settlement

Wavey keep up lol, you have to pays your 75% of stake to cover development costs, then you gets you 25% revenue. Or do you want EME to cover 8.5% of the $340m development costs?

Cant have your cake and eat it ;)

I’ll just give you the summary, you can all chatgpt-it yourselves for the details.

Actually not completely terrible, if they can survive to production without diluting completely. Just ignore the share price it got the decimal point wrong.

I really hope they come to a deal, and equal terms as Conrad is probably the best we could hope for.

🎯 Final Summary

Even if EME ends up with only 2.125% of Mako, it could still generate $22–25 million net over the life of the field, or roughly $1.3–1.6M per year in cash flow, using conservative pricing and recovery assumptions.

That level of production interest could justify a future market cap of around £10–12M, or a share price around 0.8p–1.0p, assuming EME survives debt-free and secures the production interest.

I understood that, but 25% of 8.5% is only 2.125%

And we would have to wait till 2027.

How much revenue could that actually be?

Wait, I’ll ask chatgpt…

🏁 Final View

➡️ Realistic arbitration settlement range: $10M–$25M, net to EME (pre-Indigo loan share).

➡️ Best case with leverage or negotiated buyout: $25M–$45M+.

I’d take that with a huge pinch of salt. I’d be over the moon if it actually happens. Right now I’m praying to get out with a smaller loss.

Well here is what my chatgpt says but I don’t trust it any more lol. Not a deramper, I’m well underwater here.

Good question — you’re absolutely right to be skeptical. Here’s why EME’s potential arbitration settlement isn’t bound by Conrad’s US$16 million farm-down payment, and how EME can argue for a significantly higher value than just pro-rata off that number.

⸻

🔍 Why EME Can Argue It Merits More Than Its “Pro-Rata Share” of the $16m

1. $16m Is Not Full Economic Value — It’s Just the Upfront Consideration

• According to reports, the US$16 m is paid in three tranches, including a payment tied to first gas. 

• That means a chunk of value is deferred — some only comes when the field produces.

• The buyer (Nations) is carrying the full development capex of ~US$320 m. 

• Because Nations funds all the development (via a “Carry Loan Agreement”), part of the “value” is not reflected in the immediate $16 m cash — it’s in future production upside. 

2. Carry Creates Upside Beyond Cash

• WNEL (Conrad) will be carried in its share of capex by Nations. That means WNEL doesn’t need to pay all its development costs immediately. 

• The carry structure (paying back via production) implies the real valuation of the 100% project is much higher than the $16 m headline, because that carry represents significant future production value.

• EME’s 8.5% stake benefits from this “carry” effect: in arbitration, EME can argue its value should be based not just on immediate cash but on the present value (NPV) of that carried development plus its future production share.

3. Deferred / Milestone Payments Give Further Value

• The $7 m tranche of the $16 m is only payable at first commercial production (Q4 2027 per Conrad’s terms). 

• This means part of the $16m is contingent, not guaranteed right now. EME can argue that its value should reflect the future risk and the greater total economics, not just the cash already committed.

4. Equity / Rights / Tag-Along Leverage

• EME reportedly has tag-along / drag-along rights under the JOA. That means if Conrad is selling a significant stake, EME has a right to participate on the same value basis. 

• In arbitration, EME can claim it should receive fair compensation that reflects its “proportional economic value,” not just a discounted exit.

• If Conrad forces EME out cheaply, it would undermine EME’s tag-along protection, which could be legally contested as a breach of contract.

5. Regulatory and Technical Risks / Rewards

• The farm-down deal is still subject to government approvals in Indonesia (MEMR/SKK Migas). 

• EME can argue that its interest has material value once production begins, and that cancellation now would deprive EME of that upside.

⸻

✅ What This Means for Arbitration Settlement

• Just because Conrad is selling 75% for $16 m does not cap EME’s

I guess the clue of the low value of Mako was already there, when Coro wrote down their valuation of £15m for their 15% for around $1m which is roughly what they got from Conrad. We just didn't want to believe it was worth so little.

Conrad getting only $16m for their 75% stake was a shocker.

Coro was awarded 87m? Of what?

Not £ that’s for sure

Here is my AI’s take:

Great question — this is the most realistic scenario investors should focus on:

Not full theoretical value, not a “forced forfeiture”,

but a negotiated exit, where Empyrean gives up its 8.5% stake at a discount,

but still receives a meaningful cash settlement — especially given that Capex is likely to be fully funded by the farm-in partner, making Empyrean’s stake more valuable than Coro’s was.

⸻

⚖️ So what would be a reasonable settlement value for EME, if:

✅ They relinquish their 8.5% stake,

❌ But do not get full fair market value,

💰 And Capex is covered by the incoming partner,

⛽ PSC signed, GSA progressing, farm-down in motion.

⸻

🎯 Fair Settlement Value Range (Reasonable “Compromise Exit Value”)

💡 Based on comparable transactions, Mako project stage, and minority settlement trends (but discounted for no long-term risk funding):

Settlement Quality Realistic Settlement Value for EME

Lowball / pressured (near-Coro terms) $5M – $12M

Reasonable, negotiated (likely scenario) $18M – $35M

Strong negotiation / tag-along utilized $35M – $55M

Full-value / carried to FID $60M+ (unlikely unless taken through FID or tag-along to major sale)

⸻

🧾 Why the likely range is $18M–$35M for a negotiated settlement:

Supporting Factor Effect

PSC is already signed (unlike Coro’s exit) Significantly increases value

Capex potentially funded by farm-in partner (EME carried) Major uplift, removes funding risk

Proven resource (495 Bcf 2C confirmed) Adds certainty and value

GSA / gas buyer negotiations already advanced Increases marketability

Farm-down talks reportedly underway Establishes transactional context

Conrad likely wants a “clean” joint venture Adds incentive to settle

EME is in arrears on cash calls Weakens leverage (discount factor)

➡️ These conditions support a fair but discounted value — not zero, not theoretical full value.

⸻

🔍 Simplified Case Example (Negotiated exit)

Let’s assume:

• Full FID value of EME stake = $80M equivalent

• Apply reasonable negotiated discount (55–70%) due to exit, timing, minority risk

📌 Expected settlement = $24M–$36M (sits nicely in the $18M–$35M realistic band).

⸻

📊 What would that mean for EME shareholders?

Settlement Value Approx GBP equivalent Market Cap Potential (at fair value)

$20M ~£16M 3–4× current

$30M ~£24M 5–7× current

$40M ~£32M 7–10× current

(This depends on dilution, debt, and whether some proceeds are retained vs distributed.)

⸻

🚫 Why EME almost certainly won’t get zero or “Coro-style exit”

Hi Acker!

Welcome from PREM

I sure hope it will go to 27-28 range because this current sp with deal voted through is ridiculous.

If I had more cash to throw at it I would probably feel different lol.

Just trying to understand where this could go.

Did CORO give up its stake for peanuts because it had no drag along/tag along clause in its contract, and therefore no protection?

I understand EME may be in a better position now because since CORO was pushed out PSC was signed, and now Conrad is in active farm-down talks.

If nothing else I see CORO's share price went from 0.8 to 1.2 in April-May this year when they got the paltry payoff from Conrad, so if that's the worst case scenario for EME that's at least a jump is share price not a drop from current levels.

Can't sell on IG, says "you do not have enough shares" on the phone and on the laptop "short sell not allowed"

Lol! what the hell?

I think the problem is Conrad don’t want the money now. They want ENE’s 8.5% on the cheap. Greedy bstds.

Why the hell didn’t EME pay this payment when it was due! Bonkers!

So EME must be in these talks too, is that correct?

Due to the "drag along/tag along" clause in the 2nd May 2023 RNS?

Right to participate pro-rata in any farm-down process.

“ People in the know here were spouting that there is time for a rival bidder to come forward. I know nothing so enlighten me if this can still happen”

Yes it can still happen up until the court sanction meeting in 2026 (exact date not set yet).

Unlikely I know but you never know.

Latest ChapGPT 5.1 says:

“This exact scenario has happened before (for example, the bidding war for Sainsbury’s Home Retail Group and others under the Takeover Code”