The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Can SLB accept to be in a deal played with the intention to impact PIs like this? can the Moroccan entities collude with JP and anyone else to drive things the conspiracy way knowing that one day anyone of those involved could spread the word? yes everything is possible but there are things that are less likely than others.
1. there is a need for gas in Morocco (how much?).
2. A diversified supply is through LNG import (fact)
3. Even an FSRU (cost effective) is not economical at low send out (100--200 mmscf)
4. in 2021, morocco will own the Maghreb Europe pipeline
5. Morocco will get fees for the transit. Likely to be in kind
6. But morocco wants some "independence" from Algeria gas
7. therefore, tendrara gas although one source helps in the above (a combination with Algeria gas is better that 100% from Algeria)
TW for sure is playing for his own interests. Will he be successful? who knows.
But James Parsons and co were doing the same. Lets say this is past. Mohammed should be transparent and share a strategy map with people who own 50%+ in the company. BSiting people with LNG stories is not helping.
Soundingoff, A brand new FSRU costs around $250 million (send out capacity up to 1 billion cf). Maritime work is site specific but assume another 200 millions so that's around 450-500. If ONEE buys LNG at 5$, that's at least 2.5 saving $. For 60 mmscf on 15 years it is $822 millions (non discounted) with a residual value for the ship and access to international markets..So ONEE will be in a goo dilemma here
If they can get the 7-8 $ prices and the discussion is ongoing with ONEE fine then good but my feeling is that it is not because of the simple math here. That's why I was suggesting that if SOU can make its offer in way to make the LNG option looks non attractive, then who knows..as for renewable, there will be a need for gas as a back up and the 60 mmscfis much les of what is announced as gas needs.
I am thinking that the issue is more about ONEE and the gas prices. Why would ONEE pays 7-8$/mmbtu while LNG is at 4-6$/mmbtu?
if this is the case, why SOU cant accept say 5$/mmbtu and increase volumes to 60+mmscf/day? that would make around $102 millions. It can pay the $40 millions to Enagas and can even have a good dividend just out of the Horst. The business model would be attractive to someone who wants a "utilities/safe" kind of return with exploration upside.
with the news
may be it was in the same thread with mine saying we might need to engage with ONHYM and SLB (though they might not answer) because they are in theory aligned with PIs contrary to James Parson, the guy who has shown no integrity and as such cant be trusted along with his Friend the act chairman.
of course they want to hide the misery that James Parson has inflicted on PIs @ Sound, in terms of wealth loss, health problems and broken hyped dreams/promises. Again no view on your investment here cause I'm not qualified to do so.