Member Info for mcadder

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/poland-says-russian-gas-pipeline-084006236.html WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Poland's prime minister on Monday called a planned Russian gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2, a "new hybrid weapon" and says Moscow wants to use it to undermine NATO and the European Union. Mateusz Morawiecki called Nord Stream 2 "a poisoned pill of European security" as he addressed a NATO Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Warsaw. The Nord Stream 2 project would double the amount of natural gas Russia can funnel directly to energy-hungry Germany from newly tapped reserves in Siberia, intentionally skirting Eastern European nations like Poland and Ukraine.

http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook/charts/supply_natural-gas-demand-increases ................................................................. Exxon mobile - 2018 outlook for energy.................. Natural gas demand increases Download the chart – PNG / 113.6 KB Higher electricity demand would lead to about a 20 percent increase in natural gas demand for power generation in 2040 ................................................. Natural Gas expands to meet a wide variety of needs .......................... Natural Gas use is likely to increase more than any other energy source, with about half of it's growth for electricity generation.

Good reminder spud of Allenby Capital's broker note which considering they published it around Nov 2016 I'd agree is certainly out of date! If we take into account 4X more shares with the projected doubling of lifespan of Infa from 20yrs to 40yrs 5p a share certainly seems reasonable.....

As was alluded to in AP's interview he said " I'm confident that because of the importance of the project - and just the sheer need for it - I'm confident that one or more of the very serious player's we are speaking to are going to sign up before they are beaten to it.....nothings signed until it's signed but we are very positive indeed". Further on he also said "now we're actually getting on with it, we're doing what we said we would do - we've commenced the FEED and we anticipate that will go pretty much straight into the investment decision and the construction of the project itself" and then also said regarding where we will be by the end of this year...... " I can be confident that we will have the project ready to go and I would certainly anticipate that by that stage we will have effectively pre let it, and who knows maybe there's a chance we will have pre sold it" ......All to play for here with Infa but either scenario should be very good news for shareholders. Let's not forget that £11.5M has already been invested prior to FEED commencement and remember that the mkt cap is only £4.7M ish even though we have no debt and up to £4M of an EU grant to utilise. The FEED itself should put a great deal of value on the company especially with Costain, DEEP Kbb and Evan Passaris now involved. Therefore it's reasonable to expect an outright sale to fetch £50M - £60M once FEED completed. In terms of construction and not a sale I would expect mkt cap to be at least at the £30M mark when construction starts and move upwards to perhaps at least £100M+ mkt cap once project is ready to take first gas. These imo are very conservative figures.

Aunty - no problem and good luck :)

There are potentially 2 other gas storage project's in the UK - The Gateway gas storage project located off the coast of Barrow run by Stag energy and the Preesall gas storage project off the coast of Lancashire managed by Halite................................ However it has to be noted that only Infa benefits firstly from having status as a PCI (project of common interest) i.e would benefit security of supply to 2 member states (N.I & R.O.I) & has an EU grant facility available & benefits from being qualified for the UK Government guarantee scheme (UKGS). Additionally Infa if built would be the only gas storage facility in the whole of Ireland and also be able to supply the whole of the UK at the same time with the reverse flow proposal of the Scotland to N.I pipeline (SNIP). ............................................. ................................................................................... Preesall currently is having problems of it's own getting off the ground due to the sheer amount of public objections to it's build and potential for compulsory purchase orders that would have to be used if it went ahead. Recent proposals to extend the Wildlife protection zone to include the area where brine water would be flushed out haven't helped either ............................................ https://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/business/nature-reserve-may-halt-halite-gas-storage-plans-says-mp-1-9053746 ............................................ With regard to the gateway project I believe Stag energy is still trying to get it from the drawing board phase towards development. Funding has always been the main hurdle for gas storage project's but the UKGS Infa qualifies for will undoubtedly make Infa an attractive proposition to any interested lenders and major gas players and make it imo the favourite to get developed next. Infa is good to go having all planning consents in place and local public support for the project which, wouldn't have been possible without all the commitment and hard work of our community liaison - Judith Tweed.

Further recent call by the BCC in March for a govt review....................................................................... The Ceramic Sector calls on the Government to urgently conduct an Inquiry into UK Gas Storage Capacity .................................................................. The British Ceramic Confederation (BCC) is repeating its call for the Government to launch an inquiry into the amount of UK gas storage capacity. The BCC has long campaigned for more UK gas storage capacity to buffer against the sharp price hikes associated with gas supply and demand shocks. In 2017 BCC expressed concern [1] at Centrica Storage’s announcement [2] to close their Rough gas storage facility permanently, which will result in the loss of around 75% of the UK’s gas storage capacity. BCC is also deeply concerned at the Government’s speed and complacency in allowing this to happen, without a review of the impacts, given Rough’s position as a nationally significant infrastructure asset. While the UK can access a variety of gas sources (from UK production, pipeline imports and LNG) it is readily accessible gas, such as that from stored reserves, that is important at times of need. Following the sharp gas price increases seen this winter we are therefore urging Government intervention to ensure additional UK gas storage is built to protect industry and other consumers from damaging impacts of gas price spikes. Secure energy that businesses and other consumers can rely on is fundamental to the functioning of any modern economy.

http://watt-logic.com/2018/05/27/interconnectors-security-of-supply/ .................................................. Relying on interconnectors for security of supply carries risks Posted on 27 May 2018 by Kathryn Porter ............. Last week Will Gardiner, chief executive of Drax Group, told the Guardian newspaper that Britain’s increasing reliance on electricity imports through the use of interconnectors is a threat to energy security, and will result in the country importing carbon emissions. He also said that interconnectors would fail to deliver the aims of the government’s industrial strategy.....

Hi aunty - assuming you got in here recently in the low 0.4s still great timing considering the investment potential here now going forward!

Will we get news next week? Maybe! Am expecting to see this push into the 0.5s and beyond next week! The re-rate continues.....SP so far is roughly 100% up from it's lows of 0.24......I'm not at all surprised a lot of Infa shares are in sticky hands considering the potential value of the FEED and increased likelyhood of full construction will do for the SP here. Presto imo has this nailed on.....1.5p a distinct possibility by July.

( continued ) ........ the long-term energy picture beyond 2022 and 2030 for the UK is more unstable, and I’m concerned it will be less capable of responding to the needs of oncoming climate change.

https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/features/brexit-the-impact-on-energy-and-climate-change ....... Some key points ...................................................... Gas generation has grown massively. The reduced output from coal has required increased capacity from gas. This in itself is positive for the environment as gas burns cleaner than coal (driving higher air quality), but also more efficiently, reducing our carbon emissions. Electricity generation from gas has also been on the increase due to the rise of renewables. As renewables produce power intermittently, gas power plants provide back-up to balance the grid, as they can be powered up or down swiftly, hence generating peak power. In short, they can be switched on quickly when the country needs more power as national grid tracks increased power demands, or as generation falls off from intermittent renewables. The UK’s increased reliance on gas and renewables has led to the various interconnectors and energy trading with the EU coming under increased scrutiny. Gas trading Gas consumption for the UK in 2016 was 896,526 GWh. It is crucial for the country's heating, industrial processes and electricity production. In 2016, electricity production consumed 297,643 GWh of gas, equivalent to 33% of our total gas consumption, which as explained above, is only set to grow. The clearest marker of this dependency is our gas pipelines to the continent. Most of the gas comes from Norway, which is connected through two pipelines: Langeled (capacity 80m m3/d) and Vesterled (capacity 38m m3 /d). Not only do we rely heavily on the quantity of gas supplied, but we must also guarantee its constant supply. With the long-term gas storage facility at Rough closing, the UK is less capable of buffering for sudden consumption increases. This was testified during the cold spell of winter 2017/18, where National Grid Gas requested industrial gas users to implement demand-side response, making more gas available for domestic use. With fewer buffering system in place, the country is more reliant on the steady flow of gas imports. The UK’s reliance on the continent for gas is fundamental to the UK’s energy security. Norway, as a member of the EEA, trades with the UK under the rules of the EU. Extra tariffs on these pipelines could therefore hinder the UK’s strategy which relies on gas peak generators to balance intermittent renewables. Brexit could mean that the UK leaves the Supergrid project, within which the UK would be able to coordinate electricity generation and trade centrally across the European continent, leveraging the strengths of different renewable powers across various regions. Whichever way the negotiations are resolved, the overall energy picture for the UK isn't set to change in the immediate future. However, acting as an independent agent and with the likely restricted access to EU investment and skills, the long-term energy picture beyo

https://www.auroraer.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Aurora-Energy-Research-Energy-security-in-an-interconnected-Europe.pdf ............................................................ Some key points highlighting possible security of supply issues in the UK and Europe ...................... Increasing reliance on renewables could increase uncertainty surrounding interconnector behaviour during tight periods. Correlation of both demand and wind output across countries already makes interconnector flows difficult to rely on during periods of peak demand. The greater the reliance on wind, the more severe the impact of correlated wind output if we are over-reliant on interconnectors. Faster-than-anticipated renewables build-out could compromise security of supply to the extent that de-ratings fail to account for the possibility of non-linear changes. Exhibit 19 shows the impact of a high renewable scenario. .................................. Policy or regulatory changes in interconnected countries could quickly render current de-ratings obsolete and put GB security of supply at risk. One of the main factors driving net imports to GB is the carbon price support (CPS) which increases power prices relative to the rest of Europe. ...................................................... Further risks are posed by different capacity market regimes across interconnected countries. There are at least two potential problems. First, interconnectors could be “over-committed” in two different markets. For instance, the East-West interconnector is de-rated at 59% in the UK and 46.9% in Ireland. If East-West, whose total capacity is 500MW, is exactly meeting its obligations in Ireland by delivering 46.9% of total capacity (234.5MW), its contribution to GB supply will be negative - an outflow of 46.9% of total capacity, which is a substantial 105.9% (529.5MW) in deficit on its GB obligations. In Ireland, for example, the maximum penalty for non-delivery is EUR 2500/MWh, compared to just 1/24 of the Capacity Market price in GB. This translates to a penalty of just £350/MWh based on the 2021/22 T-4 auction clearing price of £8.40/kW. Indeed, only a clearing price in excess of £50/kW would be sufficiently high to rival the maximum Irish penalty. Both these issues make it less likely that Irish interconnectors could provide security of supply to the GB market during a stress event. .................... In addition, high levels of interconnection have potential to exacerbate the problem of interconnectors flowing the “wrong way” during correlated periods of peak demand. For instance, the GB system would have been put under considerably more strain during the “Beast from the East” if projects scheduled to come online by the 2021/22 had already been in operation.

Matt Gray Matt Gray @matthewcgray · 9h For the first time in 8 years, the #EUETS looks set to drive EU #coal to #gas switching en masse. 1/4 ................................................................................... https://mobile.twitter.com/matthewcgray/status/999948846494109697/photo/1

Inspired Energy Inspired Energy @InspiredEnergy · 9h Today's Daily Market Snapshot: Flows have returned through the Langeled pipeline this morning following yesterday's outage, however the UK gas system is undersupplied due to stronger IUK exports. (link: https://bit.ly/2IMMgbn) bit.ly/2IMMgbn #UKEnergy #DailyMarketSnapshot #Gas #Electricity

Nord Stream 2 Corp. @NordStream2 · 9h Key development in #EU #gas is collapse of Dutch production at the #Groningen field, but when politicians and media commentators speak about #SecurityOfSupply problems, they only talk about #Russia. Read @OIES Jonathan Stern interview in @Euractiv: ........................................................... https://t.co/TQwNu59g5U?amp=1 ...................................................................................................................... "Despite new interconnections, Europe is more dependent on Russian gas than ever “Collapse” of Dutch production a major source of concern The role of gas in Europe “will not diminish significantly before 2030” ....................................... when gas industry people speak about security of supply, what they speak about is the decline of production in the Netherlands, the UK, and further in the future Norway. Although in general things are much more positive in Norway, we have questions about some day-to-day reliability issues. On the UK and Netherlands side, the state of North Sea reserves is probably beyond repair… The only question is to the speed of the decline. And the problem is that we did not realise until relatively recently that in the Dutch gas sector it would decline very quickly.

Aunty - AXA sold out last year but we believe L&G despite recent dilution are on 5% as we believe they have added here - looking good here though more chunky buys being put through NEX :)

Clearly some were sat on the sidelines here waiting for this to bottom out before the move back up......looking very very good indeed hopefully we'll break 0.50p level and stay above it... gla :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-24/gas-supply-crunch-thwarts-europe-s-plans-to-kill-off-coal-power ..................................... Europe wants its industry to burn more natural gas instead of coal to reduce global warming. The problem is, there isn’t enough gas at the right price. Depleted gas stores after the coldest winter since 2012, coupled with pipeline constraints on flows from Russia and Norway, have driven prices to their highest level in at least five years. The result: generating electricity from gas is unprofitable for many utilities, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the cost of fuel, power and emission permits. One issue for the utilities is where to find more gas supplies. Consumption is set to rise 0.4 percent this year and as much as 1.7 percent in 2019, increasing competition for the fuel that’s used both to produce electricity and in factories making everything from plastics to fertilizers. Dutch Earthquakes Output is declining from the North Sea. It’s been dropping in the U.K. since 2000, and the Netherlands earlier this year set out plans to shut Europe’s biggest onshore gas field. So much gas has been drained from the Groningen field that earthquakes have damaged nearby homes. The real crunch time for supplies could come early next decade, according to Jonathan Stern, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. High Asian demand could draw liquefied natural gas away from Europe, and a “crisis situation” would emerge if Ukraine and Russia fail to agree on a new transport deal, he said. Centrica Plc, the U.K.’s biggest utility, says supplies could get tight next winter already. “If we get cold weather, especially in the beginning of this coming winter, the market could get tight in Northwest Europe,” said Nazim Osmancik, vice president of group economics and fundamentals at Centrica.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/172462/uk-becoming-too-reliant-on-eu-to-keep-its-lights-on/ .................................................................................. The U.K. should reduce its reliance on huge cables that carry electricity to and from Europe to ensure that the lights stay on. The government is overlooking the risks of relying on supplies that may not materialize, according to a report by Oxford, England-based Aurora Energy Research Ltd. Electricity on interconnector cables flows to where prices are more expensive, making supplies difficult to predict or control. “The contribution of interconnectors to security of supply is unknown, and, to a significant extent, unknowable,” said Aurora Chief Executive Officer John Feddersen. “Government has so far overlooked this inconvenient fact.” Historically, interconnectors have often delivered less power than National Grid Plc, the system operator, assumed they would when demand is at its highest, according to Aurora. On some occasions, the cables have even undermined security of supply by exporting to neighboring countries during peak demand periods.