RE: RE: RE: Lock down15 Mar 2020 18:17
If anyone thinks this is heading back to 20-30p anytime soon I'm afraid you are in for a bit of a shock. I was one of those recently who thought there was no way this could go to single figures - looks like I was wrong....
Global Oil Demand Heads for Record Annual Drop as Virus Spreads
Javier Blas Grant Smith
Mar 15 2020, 2:58 PM IST
Mar 15 2020, 9:41 PM IST
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(Bloomberg) -- Global oil consumption is in free-fall, heading for the biggest annual contraction in history, as more countries introduce uprecedented measures to fight the coronavirus outbreak.
Travel bans, work-from-home, canceled vacations and disrupted supply chains all mean reduced demand for fuel. As societies respond to the virus, oil demand -- already hammered by China’s decision to shut down swathes of the economy -- is falling further. Oil traders, executives, hedge fund managers and consultants are revising down their forecasts dramatically.
The growing fear among many traders is that oil demand, which averaged just over 100 million barrels a day in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year, easily outstripping the loss of almost 1 million barrels a day during the great recession in 2009 and even surpassing the 2.65 million barrels registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis.
“This global pandemic is something the world hasn’t witnessed since 1918,” said Pierre Andurand, who runs oil hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP. “I do not see how the the demand drop wouldn’t be multiples of the drop witnessed during the global financial crisis.”
Oil prices have fallen by almost 50% this year as the virus’s worsening impact on the global economy coincides with a massive supply shock: Saudi Arabia and Russia are in an all-out price war to pump more crude. On Monday, Brent crude plunged 20%, the largest one-day drop since the Gulf War in 1991. Privately, some traders believe oil prices could drop into the single digits for the first time since the 1997-99 oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
“We haven’t seen a demand event like this in history,” said Saad Rahim, chief economist at oil trading giant Trafigura Group. “Every day is going to be worse for demand for some time.”