Member Info for mcadder

Draft your making this too complicated for yourself and everyone else ( whether deliberate on here or not I don't know) but you need to look at it from this perspective imo -

ESL was 100% controlled by shareholders at the point of suspension in August 19 where current SP was 71p (having dropped prior to that from well over £1)
Dbay take a 51% stake in exchange for providing ESL with up to £70M in funding to grow the company. So yes even if you look at it from the point of view that ESL shareholders have a stake in half the company that would still give a fair valuation of 35.5p from the low of 71p at point of suspension.
However the company also have access to up to £70M in liquidity to help grow the business which they didn't have before so imo with that and continuing increase in revenues plus acquisition of TPN gives us imo a fair value back to where we were at suspension of 71p.
So imo the value hasn't changed the only thing that's changed is how we work it out.
We all know Dbay are here long term they will not be selling any for a long time. Why? Because it will suit them to retain a 51% controlling stake until they have succeeded in turning the company into a hugely profitable organisation which will deliver results for not just themselves but also the shareholders. Perhaps Dbay's intention all along has been to take a controlling stake and turn the company around for potential lucrative bid? Anything's possible but the disconnect between the value of the company and the current SP is plain to see.

It seems to me that the only positive that keeps getting thrown up is the hedging.
Ok so they have managed to hedge 45k barrels @ $57 but any future hedging is going to be massively discounted now plus that still leaves around 35k barrels a day fully exposed to current prices. The last thing Tullow needs right now with the current debt level is 35k barrels at $40 or below.

Yes and whoever maybe circling TLW will be watching the SP with interest over the next few weeks as the lower this goes the lower their "low ball offer" is likely to be.
Any offer now couldn't be coming at a worse time for the company imo

Looks as though oil could drop below $40 this week....

7th March 2020 23:46
Hard on the heels of Aramco slashing the price of its crude
Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil price for all crude
Bloomberg report on the planned output cut citing "people familiar with the conversations, who asked not to be named to protect commercial relations"
plans to increase oil output in April
going well above 10 million barrels a day
Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day
Current Saudi production is about 9.7 millions a day

"That's the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war," said a commodities hedge fund manager, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation.

Oh dear. I'm so glad I held off buying back in on Fri - I'd be amazed if this held above 20 on opening....

Hard on the heels of Aramco slashing the price of its crude
Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil price for all crude
Bloomberg report on the planned output cut citing "people familiar with the conversations, who asked not to be named to protect commercial relations"
plans to increase oil output in April
going well above 10 million barrels a day
Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day
Current Saudi production is about 9.7 millions a day

"That's the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war," said a commodities hedge fund manager, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation.

IMO we do have a deal coming and it's going to catch a few on the back foot me thinks.
Someone got this reply from the company the other day....

"I can confirm to you that your board is pursuing an RTO and the overwhelming focus is on this while we continue to clean up the company.
It is in no one's interest to not announce an RTO by the 4th May 20 deadline and the board remains confident we will achieve this."

Dermot.

I used to be a TR1 holder here till last July and sold the majority of my 60M holding at an overall average of 0.19 making a roughly 40% loss from my average of 0.28. This was because at the time my gut was telling me that after protracted silences from the company something wasn't right. For me it could have been a lot worse so I consider myself one of the lucky one's.

I have been back in here for a while having reinvested £15k for 40M shares lol which sounds ridiculous but such is the lack of sentiment until we all see that detail of a potential RTO and hopefully the tax losses that they can offset.
Luckily for me I have managed to make back what I lost here last year trading other shares, plus I am also prepared to keep 15k in here till the very end even if we do suspend in the hope of seeing it re-list just to wipe the smile off a few people's faces. You know - the one's that frequent this bb on a daily basis haha.
Sod it who knows I may even add a further 5k here next week. It's boom or bust time now but I do believe we will see an RTO land prior to the deadline and perhaps a name change that doesn't make us a laughing stock anymore with the years of failure and non delivery under the name. I do concour that it's likely to be from the clean energy sector but what would be funny is if it was a Gas to wire project which had absolutely no link to our beloved MfDevco lol. Only kidding can't see it being GTW but am genuinely intrigued as to exactly what it could be.
I will no longer make SP predictions for Nuog.
All I will say is if it's slightly positive then it will be north of current levels. If it's very positive it will be far north of 0.0037 and if it's extremely positive it will be off the scale north of here....lol

Should've called himself Spinfactory lol

Yeah don't worry Truthfactory I mean what's 7% discrepancy hey? If ESL generate £1B in revenue 7% would mean your only out by £70M?!!!
So from where I'm looking it's enough to make a big difference and you knew that yet you quoted 25%...

The Truthfactory being misleading again I see.

Some absolute rubbish posted on here by posters with very few posts also. Usually the sign of a good week to come when the bashers come out the woodwork over the weekend haha

That won't be true for ESL as they'll have negotiated contracts with customers in advance for the next 12-24 months with agreed haulage rates based on weight of every load plus radial miles for each route - the fuel costs are what will have to be covered by the haulage company regardless of the price of fuel at the time which, would mean even tighter margins for them if oil shot up however in this case it's certainly fallen in their favour. It comes down to simple basics - the lower the price of fuel for hauliers the less it will cost them to fuel up each lorry yet the haulage rate for each delivery will remain the same.

"We are in the final stages of appointing a non-executive chairman who has significant investment management experience and will make a further announcement once the appointment process is complete. These appointments will broaden the experience of Board members and strengthen the Company's links with DBAY and the Eddie Stobart group."

Let's not forget that perhaps at some point next week we may also get an announcement re appointment of a non executive chairman as well as potential TR1 notifications along with potential new contracts.

100% upside potential during the next week. This stock should buck the trend where other oil and gas listed companies may continue downwards if oil remains suppressed.

I had held here till recently selling out at 42.4p and had been watching closely with a view to getting back in however following events of yesterday I'll be staying in cash for now.
Too much uncertainty atm for me to try and catch a falling knife to get back in here imo

Climate crisis and Covid-19 conspire to crush oil firms like Tullow
The prospector’s results, due this week, are likely to reveal that it and its rivals are facing a serious crisis

Jillian Ambrose

Sat 7 Mar 2020 00.05 GMTLast modified on Sat 7 Mar 2020 07.51 GMT

Prospecting for oil at a Tullow site in Uganda, 2012. The company is taking a £1.5bn writedown over the coronavirus outbreak.

Tullow Oil may emerge as the latest casualty of the coronavirus this week as it prepares to lay bare the toll of a difficult year, amid growing investor concern for the oil industry in the months and years ahead.

There is simply too much interest in this stock despite some of the II's selling out to ever see this at 6p again.
If it wasn't for the large sells we would be hovering between 16-20p right now.
Many large companies have a billion shares or more in issue with vastly inflated mcaps - we have only 379M shares with an mcap that is completely disconnected to the true valuation of the company here.
Sellers can only sell once and we will get a good indication at the beginning of the week if the large sells have dried up. Once the overhang has cleared this will well and truly motor (or truck lol) towards fair value.

If current market sentiment remains into next week can see quite a few piling into this stock as this will be one of only a few decent opportunities out there that will not be affected by the virus scare and plummeting oil prices.
Infact quite the opposite here it will actually be very positive as has already been mentioned lower fuel costs and increased demand therefore extra revenue to deliver more goods from depots and distribution centres to stores.
WTI crude oil currently down 10.07% at $41.28....wow been a long time since I saw such a huge drop in the space of a day, the Russians refusing to play ball with OPEC has really caused a stir lol.

Indeed great news this will be the catalyst that begins a re-rate back to and over 20p especially with the upcoming CMD.
I fully expect other IIs to buy in at this bargain price too

Yes saw that 5M trade before - big buy that almost 750k worth. I personally think this week will see that last opportunity to buy sub 16p hence why I bought in yesterday

Oh dear my poor Daltry and barnyards a bit bitter are we that I probably hold more shares than you for half the price?
I'll be sure to inform you when I reach a million but try not to burst a blood vessel lol.
Anyway I thought the filter button was for disruptive abusive posters - but filter away I'm sure I'll struggle to sleep at night thinking about it lmfao haha

In here today for 370k shares looks to be a good time to get some imo - some unusual large after hours trades this evening too not sure what's going on there lol

Pre market opening currently showing 12p on the ask