Member Info for mcadder

The placing by a mixture of II's and other investor's was oversubscribed (not surprised given how discounted it was) and you can bet your arse that it will get voted through thanks to them.
5Bn extra shares is a lot yes. But the question is whether they also see enough value down here to hold for long enough to see this turnaround and the SP recover to perhaps 0.2-0.3p?
I think it's fair to say though that there would be a massive sell off of shares from the placees if the SP got to the 0.3p area so timing is everything with this one.

I have a small punt at 0.1048p and will hold for a couple of months but as I mentioned in my earlier post - just a small amount I can afford to lose if the worst happens, which reflects the small amount of faith I have that they will turn this around. I do feel sorry for the lth's who have lost so much from several pence to this point. I only see potential value at the current SP hence my small stake.

Sorry I think your misunderstanding me for someone else. I haven't said that there will be no placing at any time, we all know at some point there will be one. I think that is pretty clear!
But if there are positive developments in the pipeline it seems counter productive that the company would do so right at this point. To hint that they may do it when market conditions are more favourable would suggest post decent news which in itself would make conditions for a placing much more favourable and palatable.
£2.5M cash and £2M undrawn overdraft facility suggests they are pretty comfortable with dictating when to do it.

From 31st Jan RNS -

"As per the announcement of 19 January, the Company has significant cash resources. Accordingly, there is no immediate need to raise additional capital and the Company may choose not to proceed with a fundraising until such time as conditions are more favourable."

I think that paragraph pretty much sums things up. A lot of scaremongering going on trolling about a placing and it is worth remembering the company is in a very good cash position and therefore are willing and able to wait until the market is more favourable - i.e until after decent progress has been announced and the SP is much higher than 9.75p!
Fingers crossed we'll be back to 20-25p plus before that happens.

Novicehunter - no one is listening to your fake warning messages. You really are obsessed - give it a rest there's a good chap...

Looking like it's holding. Hopefully a nice push into close

Don't look like any P & D to me Union.

Definitely something going in behind the scenes...

JB sorry but the way you come across is someone who just has a thing for me which I feel slightly sorry for you. I have made many good investment decisions since my one and only major disappointment that is NUOG.
ZPHR energy for starters, 0.70 out at 7.50p, GWMO 0.08 out at 0.36 and now back in there at 0.12, BLOE in at 0.85 out at 1.30p, HARL in at 16.60p out at 26.50p. Just a few examples of how I've called the bottom right over the last 12months.
So yes I am someone who looks for the bottom, I'm pretty sure most others do the same - and your problem with that is what exactly? And I must sat I'm pretty good at it ;)))

At least this is still trading JB. How's NUOG doing? Relisted yet? Glad I saw the light and got out of that one with at least something to show for it before it was too late....

That was exactly my thoughts too kiwi however with a SMALL investment I've made today I am willing to give them a chance here to turn this round now they have slashed overheads and have a new management in place.
The way I see it is - in time I will either lose my 4k I've put in at this level or I may get a few 100% returns on the back of it or even 1000% if they really excel here.
I've put in a small amount I am prepared to lose further down the line in the worst case scenario but have at least a little bit more faith in a recovery as opposed to complete wipeout.

I may need my head examining for this one - I know so many were literally 90%+ down on this dog even before that last disastrous placing that took this from 0.6p to 0.10p BUT, I do see value here now at current levels bearing in mind they have a clean balance sheet, decent cash in the bank and a completely new focus.
That being said I am only putting in a small amount as I see potential for this to head back to the 0.3 - 0.4 area from here however that is no comfort to those who would need this to be back to 3p+ for many to just break even.
So I've bought a few mill today at 0.1048p for a punt - see where we are in a couple of months time....

Timor-Leste: Exploration Renaissance

https://www.geoexpro.com › 2021/12
Timor-Leste: Exploration Renaissance - GEO ExPro

Some relevant snippets;
"The island of Timor-Leste between Indonesia and Australia is the subject of some intense scrutiny these days, delivering opportunities for an oil and gas industry focused on low-risk and fast returns. The regulatory authority Autoridade Nacional do Petróleo e Minerais (ANPM) is currently promoting a major bid round for new acreage. Several offshore discoveries are moving closer to development, notably large gas reserves at Greater Sunrise and Chuditch"........

.......The UK firm Baron Oil is finalising a major 3D reprocessing project over the 3.4 Tcf Chuditch gas discovery complex to the south, whereby the firm will be looking to firm up an appraisal drilling campaign. With several development scenarios available, LNG backfill is expected to feature heavily".....

......."Given the number of existing and planned developments in Timor-Leste, the strong relationship between large offshore gas reserves and LNG in the region, and a broad licensing round with good terms and favourable geology, there is no doubt Timor-Leste will figure strongly in the regional hydrocarbon dynamics going forward. With net carbon targets being pursued by the regional majors, and CCS technology actively being considered, this island nation will find itself literally at the crossroads of the future oil and gas landscape between South East Asia and Australasia"......

"just got a whisper , let you know if it turns into something"

Thanks HFB

Holding long and strong here....

Great info HFB many thanks!

Found this today. Some snippets from it......

TIMOR LESTE
Return of the prodigal politician in Timor-Leste
Expectations are high that old campaigner Ramos-Horta will reinvigorate the Catholic nation's politics

Siktus Harson, Jakarta
Updated: January 28, 2022 12:03 PM

........"it is hoped his return will breathe some life back into Timor-Leste politics. With his leadership experience, he is expected to transform the political landscape blotted by conflict among the elite."........

........"What is needed now is a person who can carry out a five-year mandate and ensure positive economic growth as the nation emerges from a recession caused by the pandemic.

Is Ramos-Horta the right person to do this? Maybe yes, maybe no. But it's interesting to note that before he announced his candidacy, Ramos-Horta and Gusmao agreed that, if elected, the first thing he needs to do is dissolve parliament and call for new elections to settle the political impasse.

He also agreed to restructure the Court of Appeal and the Attorney-General's Office and work with the CNRT to achieve the goals.

Another daunting task for Ramos-Horta is to ensure that the oil and gas sector continues to provide revenue for Timor-Leste, such as the Greater Sunrise and Tasi Mane projects that stalled due to the current political crisis.

There's no better person to pursue these projects, worth $40-50 billion in revenue, than Gusmao, who played an important role in securing the exploration and revenue-sharing deal on the Greater Sunrise oil and gas fields between Timor-Leste and Australia.

It was signed in Kuala Lumpur in 2018 when the political crisis at home also emerged. Under the deal, Timor-Leste will receive 70 percent of the revenue if the pipeline goes to Timor-Leste or 80 percent if it goes to Darwin.

It suggests that if Ramos-Horta is elected, he will appoint Gusmao as prime minister to press ahead with the multibillion-dollar oil and gas project."......

2-3 yr timeframe ardtole.

Some will be watching here waiting to time their move to get into Baron in expectation of when they think the 3D final data will be announced, however the SP could have moved upwards before that announcement if other positive announcements to do with Timor Leste and the surrounding area, potential partners or even an update on Dunrobin or Peru come to fruition.
It's getting to that point where trading this is now becoming a real high risk gamble with us soon to be entering a news rich period.

I don't often say this but I don't see a 10 bagger here - if the 3D seismic data comes in above our expectations and bearing in mind they confirmed at the presentation that there are several interested parties with numerous options to monetise the gas then, given where the SP is I see potential for a 20-50 bagger in time from current levels.

Agree it's certainly no big deal especially with what's at stake here. People usually expect delays when dealing with projected timescales but these guys are professional and straight talking so my money would be on early Q2 in April.
A lot of positive language being used at the presentation re the development of Chuditch and the unusual situation Baron find themselves in being such a small minnow being sat on potentially such a huge asset!

"In July 2021, we announced and Independent Resource Update, validated to SPE PRMS 2018 industry standards, which indicates gross Mean Prospective Resources of 3,368 Bscf of gas and 30 MMbbl of condensate, equivalent to a total of 592 MMBOE. The High Estimate of gross Prospective Resources equivalent to 1,156 MMBOE may reflect potential for a single, large accumulation.

We expect that the 3D seismic reprocessing work will deliver data seven to twelve months from commencement. Seismic data interpretation, geological and other studies will occur in parallel during this period. The results of the studies may have the potential to reclassify the resources in the Chuditch-1 discovery from Prospective to Contingent, as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers’ (“SPE”) Petroleum Resources Management System (“PRMS”).

The Board believes that the following events represent key potential value inflection points for the Chuditch PSC project:

final results of seismic reprocessing anticipated in Q1 2022".......

Hi guys my understanding was that it would be Q2 when we could expect final results of the seismic reprocessing but according to the website it says Q1 which, could be literally any week from now?

"This would
boost the absolute valuation to £110m, equivalent to 0.949p/share.

13 bags from here to there.."

And that is an extremely conservative valuation imv....

Even if you did ask me to buy I wouldn't touch this dog. Starchild cost people 1000's ramping this to death while the SP continued to drop. When it comes to CEG I would have no problem in explaining why I think they shouldn't touch this with a bargepole. Plenty of other companies out there with REAL potential growth as opposed to just dead cat bounces...