Member Info for MB10

Reality is there won’t be much difference, more difference will be down to what multiple you apply. LVCG have loads of losses to offset so won’t be subject to tax for a few years, and their loans are small with not much interest. They “kitchen sinked” most of their assets last year too.

https://smallbusiness.chron.com/earnings-vs-ebitda-65648.html

Agreed, I know that, and it’s why I base my calculations on Earnings multiples (you are basing yours on EBITDA multiples)

The kpopfest in Germany is already a 5 year option at no cost to KPE, so is recurring revenue. Formula E is a 5 year deal with a 5 year option.

Plus I base my calculations on Earnings and not EBITDA.

I have indeed factored in that its KPE revenue.

There’s not much debt to service, less than £1.6m and most of that is a CBILS loan at a very low interest rate over 5 years. But agree they need to build up a cash buffer to insulate them from future shocks.

Revenues we know about if you do enough research and also listen to all the podcasts.

Bricklive touring 1800 days @£1000 a day=£1.8m
Cycling (March) £300k
Formula E retainer £350k
KPOP management fee £100k
KPOP ticket sales (1 night sold out) £600k

That’s £3.15 m revenue we know about so far for this year. Costs and admin costs are less than £5m following their costs savings during covid. Then you have to estimate what the other KPOP revenue streams are

100% event related online merchandising
75% all merchandising at the event
40% sponsorship
100% broadcast and streaming

Then add more bricklive tours this year. Even when covid was rampant they have generally added as much again as they secured at the start of the year from their 28 touring sets.

Then if they start bricklive exhibitions again.
Then add a 2nd and even a third kpopfest this year.

Easily into actual profit this year IMO.

Then next year they have the Volvo ocean race, the formula E kicks in from Feb 2023 with the efest, golf and concert. Plus even more kpopfest’s. 2023 could be a really massive year.

PS - I’m hoping they beat expectations on KPOP, especially with the streaming. Given its priced to fail and expectations are low, just making a profit his year will be a massive turnaround.

Bennster, we all have our targets. I base mine in fundamentals as to what the market cap should be worth, but the market tends to overshoot and undershoot and is driven by all sorts of factors including all the drags on the price that you have highlighted such as warrants. At this stage it’s all guesswork, but when financial guidance is reinstated again it will be easier.

What do you believe is a reasonable P/E for LVCG? The sector average is 47, but there is a wide variation. I think 20 is fair measure, so for every £1m in earnings that would support a market cap of £20m on fundamentals., or 12.5p.

As to tintin aka stockman, I only give as I receive; his direct messages to me in the past were pretty vile. But if he stops attacking me I’ll cool it a bit. Ball in his court.

Pardon me for breathing, which I never do anyway so I don't know why I bother to say it, Oh God, I'm so depressed.

Yes I would like, to see the end of placings too, and if the figures I believe are coming here, they will have more than enough cash to clear the debt and for growth. Over the last few years the placings have been mainly to expand the company (buying Brightbricks, getting the zoo programme started, expanding bricklive tours and buying LCSE and KPOP) but some have been to keep the company alive during covid. The broker as extracted a heavy price for those during covid. However, even 3 years later, and if you take account of the warrants outstanding, the share count has only doubled. That’s a lot less than many other Shares during covid (I can give you a long list, including a list where some of the previous trolls on this Board have been invested). All start up companies always go through a bit of the valley of death in their first few years, some never realise the reality of their promise, and lvcg has had that period extended by covid, however, I believe that period is coming to an end and lvcg will be self funding, with plenty of growth to come.

“I doubt there will be a 2nd date so soon”

I doubt if that’s going to age well.

I’ve seen all the trolling tactics on this BB. There’s the (current) “I hold” but I’m fed up so I’m trolling my own share”. There’s the attacking other posters for being positive about the thing they are invested in and posting actual research. I’ve seen the guy that claimed to hold millions of shares but was only ever negative and we haven’t heard of again. I’ve seen the “I’m in the industry and you are all doomed as Lego are watching you” (ps that didn’t last long as Lego are now claiming lvcg builds). Plenty of Chairman haters out there too, and then there are the “I sold out and I’m going to troll this and attack everyone who dosent agree with me so that I can prove I’m right”.

But IMO their time is up. They haven’t realised the massive turn around here. And money talks, and when the market gets a real sniff of what’s going on, the share price will massively rerate, and they will all be left scratching their heads trying to work out how they missed it.

Lvcg has been smashed by covid and poor sentiment, but IMO people haven’t realised the massive turnaround here. However the financial guidance hasn’t been restored yet, and there aren’t any reliable figures about the revenue generating potential, so the share price is still priced to fail.

But there have been some big hints. KPOP1 is sold out and the budget for a single night is expected to be in double digit millions, which could be even more with the 100% broadcast and streaming rights that scale this up around the globe. There is unprecedented demand, so more nights and more events expected. Costs to lvcg are only £200k, so their share of the revenue for the various components is likely to make a big impact to the bottom line. IMO the single night propels them into actual profit, and a 2nd night would add to that very significantly.

The sector average P/E is 47, so even application of a much lower P/E gives a share price target many times more than the current market cap. Then with the opportunity to scale up more festivals, the volvo ocean race, efest, 10 year formula e race, cycling, triathlon, and golf tournaments as well as a recovery in bricklive touring and the potential restart of bricklive shows, the forward P/E gives the biggest discrepancy between share price and value on the market at the moment. And importantly that’s going to be be based on cold hard revenue rolling in to the business, and actual profits, not some theoretical potential

I wish you'd just tell me rather trying to engage my enthusiasm because I haven't got one.

You think you've got problems? What are you supposed to do if you are a manically depressed robot? No, don't try to answer that. I'm fifty thousand times more intelligent than you and even I don't know the answer. It gives me a headache just trying to think down to your level.

Its the 100% of broadcast and streaming rights that the most exciting. The7 KPOP acts have over 70m social media followers between them. The festival will be a big revenue generator, but its the opportunity to scale up around the globe that’s most exciting.

This article shows there is a big demand for this, and interesting comments about live nation

https://www.midiaresearch.com/blog/live-streamings-second-growth-phase

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10502639/SMALL-CAP-MOVERS-K-pop-revives-Live-Company.html

The first ten million years were the worst, and the second ten million years, they were the worst too. The third ten million I didn't enjoy at all. After that I went into a bit of a decline. The best conversation I had was over 40 million years ago with a coffee machine.

Marvin the paranoid android could have a cheerful moment, I wouldn’t rule it out, but the likelihood in my view is extremely remote :-)

I agree that there should be examination of both sides, but your explanation makes no sense. They concerted a whole year of salary, they could have chosen to only partially convert.

The greedy freeloading Directors haven't bought a single share between them for over 2 years. Their arms are extremely short and pockets very deep it seems.

Question then, why did they choose this particular moment to insist on taking their salary in sharers?