Member Info for Maximillian

Happy Days. Though tinged with sadness at the sight of blubbing activists.

"Envirmentalist does contain the word mental" Lol.

With this logic supermarkets should be held responsible for the current obesity crisis and start requiring evidence that customers are not exceeding their recommended daily calorific intake. Makes about the same sense as that ruling.

Thanks for highlighting this.

"Dutch environmental organizations had sued Shell over carbon dioxide emissions and were granted a favourable ruling in 2021. In a landmark decision, the court in The Hague ordered the company to reduce its net carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019.

The civil court in The Hague is now ruling on the appeal.

Never before had a company been forced by a judge to undertake such drastic climate measures. The obligation applied not only to the company's own emissions but also to those of its suppliers and end users.

At the time of the lawsuit, Shell was headquartered in The Hague.

Shell appealed the ruling, holding the position that the Paris Climate Agreement imposes no obligation on companies to reduce pollutants. The company asserts that it should be for governments, not courts, to mandate such actions.

Additionally, Shell argues that a company cannot be legally held responsible for the carbon dioxide emissions of its customers.

For the lead plaintiff, the environmental organization Milieudefensie, Shell is "one of the world's largest climate polluters." They believe companies must also be held accountable for this.

The judgement could have far-reaching implications for other companies as well. There are already several similar cases worldwide brought by environmental activists."

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1731392517074557700/appeals-court-in-the-hague-to-rule-on-shell-climate-case.aspx

What kind of insanity is this, that Shell is responsible for the emissions of it's end users.

@BushyTailed, Yes, I agree and I don't particularly, I have no idea how they manage their shorts, merely highlighting to the OP that his implication that Blackrock had just opened a short was incorrect.

BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited have been short here since 2012, recent adjustments listed below, steadily reducing their short exposure the last few months apart from the 0.01% increase on the 01/11/24. The latest one on the 1/11/24 being the least consequential of the changes and as such, more likely to be an accounting balancing adjustment.

17/09/24 1.89%

20/09/24 1.71% decreased 0.18

23/09/24 1.68% decreased 0.03

01/10/24 1.52% decreased 0.16

04/10/24 1.49% decreased 0.03

11/04/24 1.39% decreased 0.10

01/11/24 1.40% increased 0.01

"Just went short" implying the short has just been opened, is incorrect.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

I do hold here. For me the downside risk is worth the upside potential. Price may well sink further on lack of new CFC news, might exponentially rise on news of a new CFC deal, most host holders are well aware of what is hindering the share price. Kroger in Canada has new planned CFC build on hold, Japan has opened one this year and is opening a 2nd and 3rd in 2026, 2027, these are not on hold. Kroger is in the midst of M&A turmoil. Trading moves being made by large funds in the interim on this stock, long and short.

4th November article

"The move demonstrates Travis Perkins’ ongoing commitment to delivering for its customers by investing in the creation of larger and more capable destination branches within its network.

Laura McCaig, branch manager at Travis Perkins Oldham, said: “Whenever we open a new branch, we’re making a commitment to providing our customers with greater accessibility to a wide range of tools and materials, ensuring they have everything they need to deliver their projects on time and to a high-quality standard.”

With more than 500 branches operational across the country, this new location is strategically positioned to meet the growing demands of the trade sector, enhancing service and product availability for customers and reinforcing Travis Perkins’ reputation as the UK’s leading building materials supplier."

https://buildersmerchantsjournal.net/travis-perkins-opens-bigger-and-better-branch-in-oldham/

"Tesco is facing a £1billion increase in national insurance after Rachel Reeves hiked employer contributions by 1.2 percentage points, reports suggest.

The bill for Tesco, which employs 300,000 people in the UK and expects operating profits of £2.9billion this year, is based on an analysis by Morgan Stanley, according to the Sunday Times.

It comes after the bosses of Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons detailed the rises they are facing, which add up to a combined £1.3billion over the course of this parliament."

"But industry bosses warned the move could lead to soaring costs and job cuts, with some companies saying they would do “everything they can” to avoid passing the buck to consumers."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cost-living-budget-tesco-national-insurance-b2644389.html

There will naturally be a lag between all this promised building, blocks being laid and profits showing, how long though?

"Such a clear focus on capital investment could hold promising implications for the construction industry. It might signal opportunities for infrastructure-related projects across housing, transportation, and energy.

Government support for capital investment could encourage private investment.

This may contribute as much as £0.30 for every £1 of public sector spending, based on projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This framework would stimulate private capital flows into the construction sector, facilitating more robust project funding and broader employment opportunities, driving productivity and sector growth."

https://itsconstruction.co.uk/what-does-the-autumn-2024-budget-mean-for-the-construction-sector/

Until interest rates drop further I don't see there being huge movement in the housing market. That said, I live in a town of circa 10,000 inhabitants and there have been several hundred houses built in the last 4 years, ongoing projects and some social housing so there isn't total stagnation.

Indeed Affrm, it's going to take a while for a recovery to show in profit margins. The initial positivity over Labour's house building plans has evaporated and won't return until physical blocks start getting laid. There is undoubtedly a housing shortage needing addressing, I hope the worst of the down cycle is over.

So my glorious support trend line was punctured yesterday, maybe it's a "fake out" and price will move back above it, maybe not, who's to know. Probability increases that price will move down to the supports below, as indicated by red arrows on the right of the picture if it doesn't get back above that support line in the next session.

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipPPNNsarFBZAu11YxWCcHlZR3iDwmmgll78h8Xw

You can see the circa 9% movement price swings in 6 sessions on this 15 minute chart indicting ( IMO ) how price fluctuates for trading profits with no significant fundamental news, unless of course I've missed it.

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipPOj_9288Qges3qhVnZb7hCzHwCCzj8aw_3_DD3

No lagging indicators used, just some fine artwork if I do say so myself.

I'm happy to remain invested here, I may split a 2nd tranche and start adding it at those support levels.

The future is bright, the future is OCADO.

All IMO, obviously

GL All

Quantas, yes interesting to read that under the new administration M&A's may become easier. Consolidation of corporate enterprises is happening across many industries. Microsoft had a habit of buying the intellectual property and or software that people were using regularly, and building it into Windows. One of the first web browsers, Netscape Navigator became Internet Explorer and then came bundled with Windows. I see it as inevitable that Ocado's market leading tech follows the same path at some point in the next few years.

Investors hoping China would announce extra fiscal buffers for an economy girding for another Donald Trump presidency were disappointed on Friday.

China's top legislative body, the standing committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), did as was expected, approving bills to allow local governments to allocate 10 trillion yuan ($1.40 trillion) towards reducing off-balance sheet, or "hidden", debt.

But investors had built their anticipation around the timing of the NPC and Trump's win just a couple of days earlier, and hence expectations of something special to pre-empt another round of fractious Sino-U.S. tensions and trade barriers.

"I think markets are on the disappointed side as there were rumours that the policy could be larger if Trump won the U.S. election," said Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for Greater China.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-latest-stimulus-falls-short-expectations-2024-11-08/

*better, not "better better". Long day

@Claire

Yes my statement "however BP is building out a station network" was incorrect RIL are building the network of stations whilst BP are providing the fuel.

I need to read the detail better better before firing those links out with grandiose statements lol.

@WD-40

Yes India is buying crude from Russia, however BP is building out a station network.

"Our new joint venture with Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) will include a nation-wide retail service station network and aviation fuels business. The venture expects to expand from RIL’s current fuel retailing network of over 1,400 retail sites and 30 aviation fuel stations across India to up to 5,500 retail sites and 45 aviation fuel stations over the next five years to become the preferred provider of automotive and aviation fuels."

https://www.bp.com/en_in/india/home/products-and-services/retail.html

"In India, the relationship between GDP growth and oil demand will continue to remain strong and positive over the next decade. A growing population, higher purchasing powers and rapid economic growth will result in greater penetration of passenger cars, freight transportation and air-travel. We expect India’s oil demand in 2033 to rise to 372m tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) from an estimated 259mtoe in 2023—making it the biggest contributor to world’s oil demand growth over the next ten years. In contrast, we expect China’s oil consumption to peak by 2030 owing to decelerating economic growth and rapid electrification of its transportation sector. The declines in China and much of the developed world will offset the growth in India and other developing countries, resulting in global oil demand reaching a peak by 2031. "

https://www.eiu.com/n/india-will-replace-china-as-the-driver-of-oil-demand-growth/

India oil stats:

https://www.worldometers.info/oil/india-oil/

"India will be world's biggest oil demand growth driver through 2030, IEA says"

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-be-largest-global-oil-demand-growth-driver-through-2030-iea-2024-02-07/

India is where it's at, but if China's demand also increases ( stimulus details this week ), BP shareholders will be rich beyond their wildest dreams. I might even take 2 holidays a year at Butlins and upgrade my van from a Berlingo to a VW.

"Travis is the UK’s biggest builders’ merchant, running a 700-strong chain. It cut its outlook for annual adjusted operating profit to a range between £175 million and £195 million, down from £240 million, a forecast issued in July, that was itself lower than one of £272 issued in April.

It pointed to “the pronounced slowdown in new build housing and domestic RMI [repairs, maintenance and improvement] activity”, which persisted into the third quarter. Falling prices for some products as the wave of commodity inflation left the industry also took a toll on revenue.

Forterra has 17 factories and makes around 590 million bricks a year, as well as blocks, precast concrete and paving. It said that wider industry figures, as well as its own production levels, showed that “UK brick industry dispatches are currently running below the levels seen in 2009.” That was also a time of a major lull on the housing market, when the impact of the financial crisis hit the availability of mortgages.

The current slowdown in the housing market has tracked the long period of rising interest rates from the Bank of England, dating back to December 2021."

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/travis-perkins-forterra-hoouse-market-slowdown-b1112730.html

So the recent drop from 922 to sub 800 caused by the above news a couple of weeks ago. Outlook now revised so the market knows what to expect. I'm looking for a turnaround as interest rates come down which should encourage the housing and home improvement market.

BOE meeting today, hopefully a rate cut will be made.

Looks like a good price for next cycle up to 960

This is a great move. A lot of people in cities will do a quick shop for convenience items on the way home from work as it negates having to go to a shop car park probably not en route. Virtually all petrol stations are becoming mini supermarkets with a quality coffee machine also on site. I've stopped primarily to get a coffee then topped up with fuel simply because I'm there.

Last TA I'll be posting here, Ninjas like to stay in the dark shadows.

Chart posted 3rd November

https://photos.app.goo.gl/5hBToGevrA8fqVTx7

Same chart today, nothing altered.

https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipP5GlxcHiT8MX16HAWmNnKMVP4n3nQl6M6HzT_jNFuSjf-fMpK6szdrjfErs93uTg?key=TnplSy02TDFHcHVyZ0hsZDlJQkg3UjJ1eHpCOGxn

Note how price hit the blue median line. The blue median line was drawn by me on the 3rd with using no methodology described anywhere that I've seen, just a hunch when I looked at the stars on the night of the 2nd. Interesting it hit that line but it's just an observation.

Fundamentals drive the bus, TA shows you the ( potential ) bus stops. Whether the bus drives stops, drives on or reverses at a stop is the unknown but probabilities come into play. Occasionally the bus gets hijacked and drives through all the stops.

Shame 2phevs has gone, at least there was a "fundamentalist" posting interesting progress updates, big shoes to fill there for someone, not my scene, I lack focus.

Unless there's something mighty interesting happening that's me going quiet.

GL All, In the words of the late great Dave Allan, May your Gods go with you.