Member Info for Maximillian

China markets less volatile overnight. If re: stimulus clarification of details happens soon and markets buy into hope, oil price up, BP up.

Middle East, if goodies and baddies continue fighting and supplies get disrupted oil price up, if Saudi Arabia ( currently goodies ) open taps, disruption maybe not so bad, oil price down.

Continued short term volatility likely. Great prices sub 400 for long term stake builders and div collectors ( If yield is not lowered ). Sub 400 great for shorter term trading.

All good.

Oil fired power station also running at 100% capacity, just rang my mate, the boiler man at India Queens, he dipped the tank and said it's full, always keeps it topped up.

"Sept 19 (Reuters) - New car sales in the European Union fell 18.3% in August to their lowest in three years, dragged down by double-digit losses in major markets Germany, France and Italy and sliding electric vehicle (EV) sales, auto industry body data showed on Thursday.

The data showed the fourth consecutive monthly drop in EV sales, prompting the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) to demand "urgent action" to prevent further decline."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-car-sales-3-year-low-august-ev-sales-down-439-acea-says-2024-09-19/

Gasoline is here to stay! Gas gas gasoline, go away nasty green, dum dee dum do da waddy wop.

Owned or managed by Hedge funds and investment banks:

"With a total generating capacity of 97.2 MW and are connected at 33 kV to the Middlemarsh onshore substation to the west of Skegness. The projects are to be operated for a 25-year lifetime."

https://glidwindfarms.com/#about-us

"The UK Green Investment Bank Offshore Wind Fund and associated parallel funds (the Fund) and funds managed by BlackRock have acquired GLID Wind Farms TopCo Limited (GLID) from Centrica and EIG Global Energy Partners (EIG) in a transaction worth £423m.

The Fund will now own a 61% stake in the 194 MW, 54 turbine Lynn and Inner Dowsing offshore wind farms, located off the coast of Lincolnshire. The BlackRock-managed funds will own the remaining 39% of the projects."

https://pes.eu.com/press-releases/glid-wind-farms-acquired-by-the-uk-green-investment-bank-offshore-wind-fund-and-funds-managed-by-blackrock/

Who or what is the UK Green Investment Bank?

The UK Green Investment Bank (now the Green Investment Group) was a non-departmental public body of BEIS, but is now an independent organisation owned by Macquarie Group Limited.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-green-investment-bank

Okay so who is Macquari?

"We are a global financial services organisation with Australian heritage, operating in 34 markets."

https://www.macquarie.com/uk/en.html

So what happens at the end of the 25 year lifespan?

https://www.power-technology.com/features/wind-turbines-are-ageing-what-happens-next/?cf-view

Older article regarding hedge funds profiting from wind energy stocks:

https://www.ft.com/content/17dafd16-5980-4058-80cc-2722e07d0fda

I'm taking a very broad macro view that oil stocks will be a good bet for a few decades yet. I'm looking past the short term issues such as the Middle East, Iran has already been reducing exports:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-Oil-Exports-On-a-Slow-Boat-to-Nowhere.html

Saudi's were already intending to increase supply prior to the current conflict.

If China injects it's economy with further stimulus oil demand will increase.

@y11-shx I was pulling your leg, I'm not concerned at all about the moon hitting the earth, as the moon is made from cheese, it will melt as it hits the earth's atmosphere.

@y11-shx are Well y11-shx my little dim friend, it's past my bed time so I'm off. Neither the wind nor the sun will run out before the moon has collided with the earth, the Indian lunar landing on the far side of it has already caused it to shift orbit. You obviously haven't noticed it's been getting bigger, that's because it's getting closer.

*cigarette packet. That other word appears to have been banned.

@stevebt i beg to differ, the earth is doomed, the building of thousands of wind farms has used up most of the earth's wind. with no wind the planet will no longer rotate and will be burnt to a cinder very quickly, probably within 50 years by my estimates. bit of "back of a *** packet" calculation so not completely accurate.

@y11-shx Yes, it's unfortunate I was born without a brain. There aren't many people who have made it this far in life without one though, so I'm quite proud of myself. It's very difficult to get a university place when you have no brain, I don't expect a brain privileged person like yourself to have the ability to empathise. Last but not least, my BP stock trades aren't bad investments, they'll come good. You can't make an omelette without cracking a few eggs.

The oil fired power stations still run 24/7, it's all a charade. I use oil fired heating and multi fuel stoves. I live near a forest so I basically steal fallen timber as no one minds, but if you ask the forestry service will forbid you due to insurance reasons like chopping your own arm off with a chainsaw. A wood burning stove is only cost effective if you get free wood. Oil I can buy when it's low cost like now and fill the tank, if you have gas you are depending on the supplier giving you a fair tarif, like that's going to happen.

Anyway, here's an article which explains why "green energy" whilst it has a place definitely is not going to be replacing fossil fuels any decade soon.

"The result is that to fill the power gap, utilities employing solar and wind farms still need to keep their fossil-fueled generators running to provide power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind not blowing."

https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/why-renewables-cannot-replace-fossil-fuels/

I don't have kids so I'm quite happy for the earth to be totally destroyed once I'm gone. In the meantime whatever it takes to increase the BP share price I'm up for including thermonuclear war as long as the wind blows away from the UK until the fallout has all landed.

"It emerged last week that BP plans to abandon its curbs on fossil fuel production in favour of targeting several new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico.

The news angered climate campaigners, but surprised very few. BP’s green retreat has arguably been the most brazen in the industry – from a grandstanding green agenda to a fresh focus on fossil fuels – but the backtrack from environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards is gaining pace among the world’s biggest companies and investors."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/very-concerning-bp-dilutes-net-zero-targets-as-global-retreat-from-green-standards-gathers-pace

"

Volkswagen Plans to Invest Billions in Gasoline Engine Development

Volkswagen (VW) Group, a leading automotive giant, has announced plans to invest billions in the development of gasoline engines, signaling a shift in its strategy amidst the push towards electric vehicles (EVs). This move comes as several automakers reassess their ambitious electrification goals due to various market and technological challenges."

https://theamazingtimes.com/volkswagen-to-invest-gasoline-engeine/?tboc=p6lda7

Pretty sure it's the Isle Of Women Boyo, small island off coast of Cornwall where they grow cabbages and other popular veg. They row over to Falmouth with them every few days, Ocado vans collect the produce. Big strong lasses, no men allowed on that island, guys have disappeared when they got to inquisitive.

From that article:

"Ruto fired his entire cabinet in the wake of the anti-government demonstrations, and then appointed five members of the opposition as ministers."

Well that's not something you see in politics every day.

Https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/kevin-mccloud-the-whole-housebuilding-market-and-model-is-broken-b1186346.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-gb

A reasonable summary of where we currently are. Hopefully if interest rates fall further the housing market will pick up and with it home improvements.

"While Labour can change policies about which sort of sites should get planning approval and employ more people to speed up planning approvals, when it comes to putting spades in the ground, most new housing in the UK is built by a handful of large housebuilders. And the government cannot tell them when and how much to build.

If the economy is doing well and interest rates are low, housebuilders like to deliver homes because they are confident people will buy them. If interest rates are high, as they are at the moment, they tend to slow down."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgw7x4y5rzo

Bailed at 677 yesterday 10 minutes from close, turned out to be fortuitous, this was going to be a long term recovery play for me as in hold 1-2 years but I got sick of looking at it being in the red in my portfolio. I wasn't expecting China to crash so quickly after stimulus, who'd have foreseen the overnight carnage?

China A50 down 8%, going to be a choppy day, lot of stocks gapping down.

Appreciated

Indeed Waccy, a new CFC announcement would I guess take this above 500 in days. Until then there's trades to be had with the dips and spikes caused by funds trading it within technical levels. I don't consider the 0.18% total reduction of shorts on the 1st October hugely significant, hedge funds will be hedging in any case. If you're a LTI and believe a CFC will inevitably be announced they present a good opportunity to increase holdings.

Until last week and the Middle East current crisis oil was at a 3 year low, caused by China slowdown ( consume 40% of global oil ). Not just BP suffering.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Warns-of-Oil-Price-Impact-on-Q3-Earnings.html

IMO Destroying Iran's oil producing capabilities and or disrupting oil transport through the Gulf Of Oman will drive prices higher just when the West is trying to get inflation back down so personally I don't think it will happen as Israel gets most of it's weaponry from the West but it's anyone's guess.

There is likely in the near / mid term ( next 6 months to a year ) to be surplus oil hence the drop in value here, Shell etc.

I will trade and dips / spikes. I have 3 tranches 430-450 I expected to not be in profit before Easter, Bought and sold another 3 at 383-417. Long term investors can take advantage of the lower price to get a great company with good Div, something for everyone here.

As for the middle East politics, not interested beyond investment trading purposes.

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/04/israel-may-launch-symbolic-attack-on-iran-nuclear-facilities-says-ehud-barak

You would think no-one wants the oil disrupted in the West given a rise in oil price will likely push inflation back up. Against that the Saudi's already said last week they were going to increase oil production ( No physical problems in doing this ) and don't they use a pipeline to the West side of the country for a lot of oil rather than the Gulf of Oman? All this against a backdrop of Oil sector heavily shorted. Certainly going to be a lot of volatility here.