Member Info for Maximillian

12:30-13:00 today, could be a choppy afternoon after a choppy morning. Choppiness all round today, baton down the hatches, get the sou'wester on and avoid the angry seagulls.

@378 Drop is overcooked IMO

Whilst the focus on oil prices dropping seems to be mainly Chinese consumption, India's consumption is rising. Global oil consumption USA 20%, China 13%, India 5% approximately.

https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy-indias-oil-demand-to-grow-4-per-cent-on-year-in-october-december-sampp-global-3648759/

As one economy retracts another expands, it's the cycle. I don't think EV's will take off as quickly in India:

"India wants 30% of newly registered private cars to be electric by 2030. But out of around 4.2 million passenger vehicles sold last year, less than 2.5% were EVs, according to Bain & Company"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/13/indias-ev-conundrum-to-invest-in-cars-or-charging-points-first.html

I'll not be switching to an EV until I'm forced to by either huge tax on diesel vehicles, or diesel is so expensive it makes sense too. The government will obviously increase tax on EV's to make up in the shortfall in tax revenue from petrol and diesel cars. I've witnessed the low charge fear of friends including one who has a Tesla. Dirty ole diesel van for me.

It may well be another year before BP reaches the heady heights of 500 again, I'm in no rush, div coming up, anything sub 400 is a good add to the SIPP for long term. That said, I have a tendency to trade those tranches when morning coffee rush hits and there's a price spike.

From that article "I only bought online grocer and logistics group Ocado Group (LSE: OCDO) in July and I’ve experienced a lifetime of volatility. At one point I was 20% down, then 7% up, and today I’m 15.56% down."

That's Ocado! not for the faint hearted lol.

Great 15 minute documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veTbuLu7znc

Essential to read the critical comment section from engineers and geologists such as:

"Chemical Engineer here, all 35 years of my experience has been in petroleum refining. Your video is surprisingly accurate but somewhat misleading. Economics and environmental permits/regulations are driving 95% of the decisions. It's just cheaper for a refinery to buy foreign oil than to spend $5 - 10 Billion (that's with a B) to convert just one refinery to American oil. In addition, it can easily take 5 - 10 years to get the permits that would allow you to make the conversion. And before the haters go off on "Yeah but refineries make $10 Billion a day" - they don't. Seasonally and during maintenance they can easily lose $10 MM plus per month. In addition, a refiner doesn't control the price of either its feedstocks or products, they float on their respective commodity markets so it's an incredibly high risk business with massive capital requirements and almost infinite liability. For comparison, imagine if Apple couldn't control the sales price of an iPhone."

Hopefully any drop on ex div day will not be long being made up given current volatility.

@Soutanglie You assume wrong. Assumption is the mother of all f*&^ ups. You're going to have to do better than that to try insult me. Regardless of your childish insults, I'll still be having a great day. In the words of the late great Dave Allan, "May your god go with you".

You need a paid subscription for The Washington Post to read the full article but here's a summary from another site:

The Washington Post is reporting the Bush administration ignored an offer from Iran in 2003 to cooperate on a number of key issues now at the center of the dispute between the two nations. According to the report, Iran offered to fully cooperate on its nuclear program, recognize the state of Israel and terminate support for Palestinian militant groups. Iran sent the offer just weeks after the U.S. invaded Iraq. The Bush administration belittled the offer and formally complained to the Swiss ambassador for sending the proposal along.

https://www.democracynow.org/2006/6/20/headlines/report_bush_ignored_iran_peace_offer_in_2003

There are further details in a documentary on the Arte channel.

There are no goodies and baddies, axis of evil and all that nonsense, just wars for resources. Israel currently being led by an ultra right coalition with the ultras wanting to expel all Arabs and take lands that their God promised them, LOL. Seems he / it / they also promised it to the other side, bit duplicitous, Christians not even getting a look in, no doubt they were promised a small slice by their God.

https://theonion.com/northern-irish-serbs-hutus-granted-homeland-in-west-b-1819566085/

Well 2phevs thanks for the research you posted. I learnt from you, in that I realised if you invest time digging around, you can certainly find out a lot more than you will just via the headlines posted in a Google search. LinkedIn was certainly a place I'd overlooked as a source of info. Good luck and cheers.

No idea Auson, what you say sounds completely reasonable, Just doing a bit of early morning cutting and pasting of another view. My personal view is that increasing instability in the region will cause a spike in oil prices, as to how long that lasts or whether it causes a substantial rise in the BP share price I also have no idea. Way to much of a dynamic situation with to many variables to be predicting.

Pint of Bishop's Tipple and a bag of pork scratchings for me if you get there first.

Seemed like a genuine guy who did a lot of research, maybe he was a double agent all along, drawing longs in so the shorters had a higher price to drop it from.

Unlike in similar geopolitical flare-ups in the recent past, oil prices remained relatively muted for the year after Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, which triggered the current crisis in the Middle East.

That's because OPEC, which is cutting oil production to "stabilize" the market, is sitting on an estimated 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare production capacity.

Analysts believe that OPEC, mostly its Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have enough spare capacity to offset potential losses of supply from fellow member Iran.

However, in case the conflict escalates to Iranian proxies targeting oil infrastructure in Iran's Middle Eastern neighbors, or if Iran moves to block or restrict oil cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to triple digits and record highs, analysts say.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Traders-Amass-Record-Number-of-Oil-Options-as-Middle-East-Risks-Rise.html

If anyone disagrees with me I'll fight them outside the Dog and Bacon on Friday night.

*That China's economy picks up

Improved China outlook the primary reason for oil lift.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Gains-as-China-Lifts-Crude-Import-Quota.html

ISRAEL NOT the REASON Denby69 who keeps WRITING IN CAPITALS for no apparent reason, probably reading to MUCH DAILY MAIL.

Better for long term prospects that China's economies than the Middle East Conflict spikes. They'll be fighting over some sand in the name of their relative gods for the next 1000 years. Cry me a river.

I can't see your comments R2-D2, my neighbour told me about them though. You engaged in a whole conversation with me last week when I was leading you right up the garden path, so you were certainly listening, my little low IQ friend who doesn't seem to know any punctuation. Don't worry though, I still like you.

Brent pushing at 76$ now and BP flat lining, ho hum, tomorrow's another day.

Pushing at that 75$ ceiling.

In order to keep the BB "noise" and insults at bay which can interfere with trading I've filtered everyone on the board now. Just a load of green bars and my opinion now, much better. Miss you guys.

@VP, that lol at the start is not fooling anyone, obviously AI. I'm happy to read all opinions including yours, creates balance. I take it as contrarian indicator when mocking you post rise reaches fever point. Not into forum mobbing, even if the contributor is obviously a droid.

@stupmy, prorealtime daily showing 507 top of wick 14th but Yahoo Finance showing highest price of day 508.98 which would be the gap bottom level to be filled, if it does. Gap doesn't exist on IG live charts on any time frame. Not trading it, just interested.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/EZJ.L/history/

507, maybe that will close then bounce back up....