Member Info for MaverickD

Well on a positive update we are looking at 70p+ no doubt - top our 12 month high

10.25p is the number to crack

Short term we could well see a run up on the SP

A bigger than expected draw in US supplies - 6.9m barrels and it was reporting 1 day ahead of schedule. Significant - Oil traders are buying again and we could see another leg up……

DNO are owed $300m and of that Genl are due 25%, so $75m

The average price target from Genel is GBX 85. The highest price target for GENL is GBX 90, while the lowest price target for GENL is GBX 80. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 24.45% from the current price of GBX 68.30.

Obviously KRG payment receipt is worth $75M depending on how much of the $300 is recovered and this alone provides significant upside, not withstanding any agreement that is agreed on joining the producers pumping via the Turkey Pipeline and the economics around the deal.

We then have Oman and Somaliland and I believe updates on both fronts will come very shortly

As I thought British Bulls have this as a buy confirmed from a chart perspective. Still waiting on news which may come when DNO update the market on 6th November. I would imagine Genl will repeat some of those details on their update on 12th November and also cover Oman and Toosan in Somaliland

Have a look at Genl guys…….its really moving today - couple broker notes but also rumour that KRG have stumped up payment for DNO to restart operations

Just seen that it broke through 70p……its really picked up and charts now pointing to a move upwards - a couple broker notes also very bullish

@Stockbuster Genl actually hit over 70p…….reading that it had a broker upgrade and rumours now floating about DNO securing outstanding payment of 300m of which Genel are entitled to 25%

67.5 - could see a few sells here, but trend is friend

I always take money off the table, but I still hold a bag which I build on. With regards to Genl short term I think 80p could be achieved, but with potential Kurdistan payments and rejoining the wider group of producers using the Turkish pipeline I’d expect £1.20. It’s been doing well last couple of days and expect that to continue leading into the update from DNO in Nov and Genel themselves a few days later. I think DNO report on 6th Nov and Genl on 12th. Historic payments owed totalled 75m and the market cap is just over double that figure

Now would be the time to take some money off the table……..well done those that bought some when I suggested it was a good buy. Switched some funds into Genl as I was to rebuy here

Oil prices up again - expecting a further bump up here

Gap just been filled

How’s everyone going today? Looks like we got through 10p and we are back were we ended last week

Looks like its set to run higher……..buys coming in pretty quick now - tick up and 69p the target to break

Oil is ripping higher - we are at 64.75 as I type, we were at 62.3 when the London market closed yesterday. SP will soar today - EIA report yesterday was very positive and well received. Trumps sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft have also given the black gold a boost. Sector wide we will see a bump and with TLW I expect it to be a front runner % wise based on where we came from. Expect some big buys today!

Always good to take something off the table I always need powder to buy, the drop yesterday was way overdone and enabled a number who was short to buy and we say that throughout the day. Obviously OP helps, but with the appointment of Ian Perks you have a stellar appointment, well respected and more importantly well connected in the sector. His prime goal is to boost production and secure a refinancing package. I believe Tullow will get a deal secured that will allow them the financial headroom to reduce debt and build the business going forward. With the licence extension in place it gives Tullow every chance to develop its producing asset and expand.

I did very well here in 2020 and at that time the debt stood at 3bil plus. We are now close to 1 billion, which has come at the cost of selling Uganda and Kenya and as JMAX has stated we took a hit on the investment in Kenya, but with Total’s Uganda purchase Tullow have royalties secured on oil sales that will generate income going forward (within circa 6 months), which is tied to the oil price.

Peak Production at Lake Albert is slated at 200k and Total as operator have a 56% stake, so approximately 112k barrels a day. Now let’s just round that down to 100k barrels and if say income at $1.25 per barrel you are looking at $125k daily, so $45m yearly.

These are the details of the the “payments”

Future Contingent Payments: These are dependent on the average annual Brent price once production commences.  1.25% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than $62per barrel.  2.5% (net of tax) if the average annual Brent price is greater than $70per barrel. 

I have taken an average of the 2 possible payments 77c at 62 dollar oil and $1.75 at 70 dollar oil. Obviously this is a very conservative / cautious estimate. We all know oil can easily get to 75/80/85 or even 100 dollars based on production and geopolitical factors.

The following was released by Total last week relating to Lake Albert , so worth a read: https://totalenergies.com/company/projects/oil/tilenga-and-eacop-projects-acting-transparently-uganda-tanzania

My view is that this is a solid buy at this level, but this is tempered by the risk attached to the refinancing, which I believe will be secured.

All the best to everyone, but I’m very much long from the current SP

What a good day considering what happened yesterday - tomorrow should see the 10p cracked. Expect to see more shorts that have closed.