Thought for the day...26 Oct 2020 12:45
So here's a thought...
SOLG is only worth, either...the stream of future earnings on all its projects for the next 55years or more...(changing every week ATMO)), or...
The price a major would pay that would be acceptable to Nick, which I suspect would be currently c£2 a share...
Meanwhile, CGP has only nuisance value. SOLG had to bid for them to try and tidy up Cascabel, but here's a possibility...
Supposing NM had a conversation with BHP or NCM about buying the 15% and whoever it was agreed that Nick could have first dibs and if that failed, the major could make a bid for the 15% of ENSA that CGP owns, NOT CGP as a whole (more use to SOLG)
CGP would be a pain in the butt for a major to take on...why would a major want to take on the dribs and drabs, just to get 15% of Cascabel and 7% of SOLG, with all the likely attendant aggro based on their behaviour for the last year or so...its almost certain that there will be no EGM...why would BHP, NCM or Blackrock get involved in such shenanigans...they're much more sensible and professional than that, but...
Getting CGP to sell their Cascabel stake makes perfect sense...win/win...CGP gets cash, which they need and keeps a 7% stake in the burgeoning value in SOLG...
There is another possible scenario which might appeal especially to NCM...acquire the 15% in Cascabel and SOLG sells them another 35% on condition that NCM arranges and guarantees the debt finance and pays all the costs up to production...that would be similar to Havieron, but they also would bring their block caving expertise...
I'm still drawn to the view, however, that this will become a bidding auction and, ironically, while increasing the inherent value in SOLG by prospecting these four other tenements, Nick may have also massively increased the possibility that BHP or especially Barrick may take them out...but at what price...that is the recurring conundrum...?
All thoughts welcome...
AIMO as usual...