Member Info for mattlilly

Hi Guys
I will be having a direct contact on Monday.
Please post any specific and reasonable questions I might ask.
Best wishes

Dear BBG
I hold 1.5 million shares
For the long run or selling half when they double or until a bid comes
I have posited £100/200p for a successful bid
I probably post more positive comments than most on here
Yours sincerely
Freckle faced student prodigy...

Closing spread 25.90/25.95 but...

UT 241540 at 26.5 gives a closing SP of 26.5p...

Gold looking frisky this afternoon...copper also recovered from $4.24 to $4.37 in just a couple of days

And yet...dollar still around a 9 month high so...given the inverse correlation between dollar and commodities, maybe this is the start of the next metals bull market...?

Would be great timing for an Autumn PFS...

I sincerely hope I sometimes add value to this Board and I am ALWAYS open to a reasoned argument or an opinion based on facts.

Dear All

I entirely understand anyone's frustration at apparent arguments on here.

Let me explain.

We all understand that Quady's intransigent position is that SOLG alone will take Alpala to production.

I am of a different view that there will:

Either have to be a JV of Alpala (BHP makes sense) whereby BHP use their Credit Rating and/or cash to finance the building of the mine, thereby massively reducing SOLG's element; lifting the SOLG SP; thereby allowing SOLG to use all new funds to develop its 'string of pearls' of major projects until Alpala produces net cashflow, earliest 2029 (even on Quady's forecast)

Or there will be a bid for Cascabel or the whole of SOLG.

And yes I have clearly stated that I would sell my entire holding if there was a high enough bid.

My concern is this...

Having invested for 50 years or more and with the directly relevant experience I described earlier, I KNOW that if the view takes hold that Solgold will go on its own to develop Alpala and assuming no bid emerges, the shares will continue to languish for at least 4 years until commercial production is achieved.

That will mean increasing dilution by share issues to finance the drilling/MRE/PFS etc for Porvenir, Rio Amarillo, Sharug, Blanca, etc. in a market where the SP is drifting and therefore at increasing discounts to the prevailing price.

There will be occasional spikes based on 'exciting' Regional news and then the SP will fall back again...

Does this somehow sound familiar...?

So all that some of us are doing is saying that while SOLG may well be holding the party line of developing Alpala themselves, in our opinion it aint going to happen without a a languishing SP occasionally sparked to life by 'shock and ore' news.

I have NEVER argued in favour of a bid; I have only said that it is a very likely consequence.

Meanwhile, Quady rolls out less and less credible arguments and illusory 'facts' to support his steadfast view not that SOLG CAN develop Alpala but that they WILL. And of this we can be in no doubt he is certain.

If you were to read my LSE posts over the last 11 years or more, you will consistently find that when I am confronted by facetious or unfounded opinions, I respond by posting facts.

I have often been insulted because that seems to be the last line of defence for people who simply cannot admit the possibility they may be wrong or even to entertain an objective discussion.

So in conclusion I apologise for any unpleasant posts that I have stimulated from others and one person in particular.

There are several people on here even more knowledgeable than me, especially on mining. If I don't know something I either accept a better informed view, or I seek the FACTS. If I see posts that do not stand up to analysis or examination, I seek out the relevant FACTS to challenge what I see as unfounded speculation or naked opinion.

I sincerely hope I sometimes add value to this Board and I am ALWAYS

I'm just talking about CGP's ability to pay Quady.

I have no problem with SOLG's ability, even though they have no earnings either.

On your scenario there won't be any earnings from Alpala before 2025 at the earliest. Even the most positive noises we have heard about payback has suggested the earliest will be in 4 years.

So that means 8 years from now before there is any GROSS cashflow to start to be used to pay back rolled up interest.

(As an aside if interest was rolled up even for 4/5 years it would still need a premium borrowing rate to compensate).

My concerns are totally about CGP and why SOLG would dream of giving them a 'helping hand'.

SOLG can issue new equity at any time at the price the market will stand, because of the growing quality of its asset portfolio.

The last raise was done at a 11% discount and the shares rose immediately thereafter...

Cornerstone's stake in SOLG has fallen from 11.22% to 6.85% both by being unable to take up entitlements/acquire sufficient shares to maintain their percentage; and by selling shares in the market. Indeed it has sold 47 million shares (presumably to keep the lights on...) in just over a year...

They've made a cumulative pre tax loss of $33 million in the last 5 years and their net cash outflow to Dec 2020 was almost $6 million...

So...its a simple equation...

SOLG let CGP fail and they get 100% of ENSA for next to nowt...

SOLG helps finance CGP's end of Alpala for 8 years or more after all the nasty very aggressive grief that CGP gave them last year, including only a year ago announcing that they wanted to displace the entire SOLG Board...

"Canada’s Cornerstone Capital Resources (TSX-V: CGP) said on Wednesday it was planning to call a meeting of SolGold’s (LON, TSX: SOLG) shareholders to replace the company’s entire board."

https://www.mining.com/investor-cornerstone-looks-to-replace-solgolds-board/

Bankers won't let borrowers roll up interest they patently can't pay...

And why would SOLG let them participate when they don't even have any earnings to pay what they owe SOLG...how much is it now $60m...?

I say again...do you think SOLG is a charity...

You have absolutely no idea of CF or banking.

I understand why you say what you say, but its all your own logic to justify your arguments.

There is no business, banking or market logic whatsoever...

I ask again...

Why would SOLG support CGP in any way to roll their debts when if CGP defaults they get Cascabel for nowt...?!

Quady's always right...

Remember this:

"what I have done is be a successful investor for just over 40 years. Incredible as it sounds I have lost out on one share. "

And this

"Good morning Novice, Bluejay was something I had on my watchlist and took an interest in. But was not invested.
This is not good for Bluejay investors, it's only good if they want a short term profit...."

And this

"Congratulations Bobo you show absolutely no understanding of Bluejay...."

Sorry Quady, I know nothing about Bluejay and ~I bow to your superior investing wisdom...

I've only made £20k profit on JAY so far and at 8.09 this morning the shares were only up 65% this week...sadly they've fallen back to being only 45% up...and only 30% since you said "This is not good for Bluejay investors."

And I haven't sold any...waiting for a bid...just like SOLG...

Keep posting your words of wisdom mate...

You said

"NM also stepped down early without any conspiracy theories. NM was always going to step down at some stage to make way for a CEO..."

So why didn't he plan for a successor...

Be in no doubt...he was pushed...and the company has b been struggling to find a successor ever since...KM was always a stopgap...

Have you forgotten this statement on May 21st...5 months after the AGM...?

"The Board notes that three (3) of the thirteen (13) resolutions put to the 2020 AGM (convened in December 2020) attracted greater than 20% of votes "against" the resolution. These resolutions related to the re-election of Messrs Mather and Clare, and the ability of the Company to raise fresh capital via the allotment of shares. In addition, two (2) further capital raising related resolutions were withdrawn ahead of the AGM.



The Board, via Chair Mr Twigger, Senior Independent Director Ms Grant-Goodey, and Interim CEO Mr Keith Marshall, have consulted with a range of the Company's corporate and institutional shareholders over the past months in relation to a wide range of issues including the 2020 AGM.



As a result of these consultations, and the continued drive by SolGold towards full compliance with the Code, the Board believes that it has addressed a number of the concerns previously held by certain shareholders which resulted in the votes cast "against" at the 2020 AGM, as noted above.



The shareholders consulted are supportive of the Company's approach to its Pre-Feasibility Study being undertaken in relation to the Alpala Project, and the international search being conducted for the appointment of a new permanent CEO to lead the Company through its next stage of growth and development."

No...understand my post...

Financing is cheaper if SOLG (or anyone else) own the whole of ENSA

CGP's participation massively overcomplicates matters...

TWO sets of due diligence for starters...

Finance costs money...with SOLG's huge and burgeoning portfolio of assets, bankers know that they will be good for their financial commitments, but...

Even on your scenario of production in 2025, CGP have NO EASRNINGS AT ALL...how on earth are they going to pay their debt finance...?

Why would SOLG want to give CGP a leg up to finance their 15% liabilities and accumulated debts when if CGP goes bust or fails in its legal liabilities, SOLG gets their stake for peanuts or nothing at all...

What do you think SOLG is... a charitable NFP organisation...?

Dog eat dog man...dog eat dog...

And CGP's volume is pitiful...

Only 2 days above 30k (£63k) in the last 6 months and 4 days above 85k £178k) ( in the last year...

Gold rises SOLG rises...

Ha ha Quady...keep wearing your rose tinted glasses...

I admire you for sticking to your guns but you keep marshalling variations on arguments to justify them.

Others on here post ideas for ;posters to discuss and trust me, many of us can outgun you on CF and related matters any day of the week...

BTW I've been investing in stock markets for 50 years, as well as broking them...

Its not a conspiracy theory...Nick lost all credibility with that 55% vote...the Board had no alternative but to push him out...

If your theory was correct, wouldn't Nick have had a successor lined up as opposed to going 8 months with no permanent CEO...Nick himself admitted in an article that he had been too aggressive in matters related to major shareholders...

Finally, I say again, if you really do want Alpala to go to production, SOLG has to get rid of CGP somehow, otherwise the beggaration factor will make it harder and more expensive to finance and they will have CGP as an albatross round their necks for decades...

Surely its clear to you that CGP WANT to be bought out...they put up a 'for sale' sign late last year...

Personally I think the recent pronouncements by the Ecuadorian government have fired the starters gun on open season for the majors to move in either directly or by acquisition...

I understand what you are saying Quady, but I actually DO have many years experience of Corporate Finance, as a banker stockbroker, Treasurer, AIM GFD and Head of Corporate Finance for a medium Accountancy firm.

And in my experience I can tell you that a company with no earrings, just a portfolio of assets, with a MCap of £75m Is going to find it nigh on impossible to finance their share of Alpala UNLESS it is part of the Solgold financing and/or underwritten by Solgold's bankers...

And why would Solgold do that...if Alpala is to be viable it is a no-brainer for SOLG to seek to buy out the 15%, otherwise it will be a drag on the project finance. Very different of the 15% was owned by NCM or BHP...

Furthermore as all the sensible posters on here have conceded, there is going to have to be an Equity portion in the project finance because Bankers expect 'skin in the game' from the shareholders...

Ingo knows full well that if Solgold wanted to JV Alpala with BHP the finance would be a 'walk in the park' even if BHP didn't finance it themselves out of their huge resources.

But if I'm the CEO of BHP I want a clean deal and CGP out of the picture, so CGP's share has to be bought out.

I know we have come away from the brutal animosity between CGP and SOLG under Nick's regime, but with all that was said and done by CGP during both bids, I don't trust them one jot.

This is a company that not only has a MCap of £75m and no earnings, but also its share price is just about the lowest its been for 14 months...it might be 140% above its 5 year low, thanks to Cascabel, but it would have to rise 170% to reach its 5 year high and would even have to rise 65% to achieve its 12 month high, reached during a period of intense speculation...

I say again...SOLG has done a charm offensive with CGP to repair the damage done by Nick but also they have to keep CGP inside to go forward with Alpala, but I'm in no doubt that, in appropriate circumstances that SOLG would jump at CGP being out of the picture...any aggravation factor makes the financing more difficult and more expensive...

Equally I am in no doubt that at the right price CGP would sell out without any demur...

Quady I had no idea you were dyslexic...

So what you are saying is that CGP would have to sell their holding in ENSA to pay the bills...? Who to?

Why does that make more sense than selling their ENSA stake AND SOLG shares to the highest bidder...?

"The diverse book means that all the big players have to act in concert..."

Absolute tosh...they only have to agree to sell at the right price, so...

BHP or Barrick would approach each of the major players in confidence to sound out what they would be prepared to accept...

Any bidder would only have to get to 30% to make a mandatory bid, so...supposing 100p...

BHP 13.56 plus NCM 13.48 plus CGP 6.85 plus Blackrock 5.05 plus Chinese say 3% gives a total of 42% and you're well on your way...then its down too what sort of a defence SOLG and Citi can put up...to my mind the only credible defence against a concerted bid would be a 'white knight' in the form of a JV for Alpala but then that brings me back to BHP...

But if we're talking about a 'concert party' the major holders voted together to oust Nick and he was the major blocker to a bid

OMG...no comment...meanwhile...

Its 'there' not 'their'...and 'kerb' not 'curb'...

And I can't see any way that "CGP can fund their share of Alpala"...their MCap is only £75m and by the time the DFS/CFP are sorted their IOU could be more than that...so how are they going to finance their share...

A massively deep discounted equity issue and...

Sell the remainder of their SOLG shareholding...(currently worth £40m)

Sorry Jerry...I'm afraid I've retired... ;-)

Guys..

Lets be fair to Quady...

He's convinced that Alpala is going to production in 2025 and has never budged from that position.

I'm not the only one who deprecates his insults when he restates his view or tries to shoot down other people's, but...

He is absolutely entitled to quote the Company including from the recent email to support his view...

However...

How does he square these statements with the Solgold Business Model which is on the corporate website?

"The exploration of copper and gold is core to SolGold’s business model. SolGold generates value by discovering and defining world-class projects and maximizes funds, using an established systematic and disciplined approach to exploration targeting grassroots opportunities to ensure low cost entry in to projects."

Where in that is production stated or even implied...

I for one think this whole thing is a smokescreen...a giant game of Spoof...

Especially under Nick, every RNS was designed to ramp the SP...he even implied that there was a price at which he would sell...

He's not getting any younger...CGP would jump at a bid at the right price...BHP are clearly in for the long haul and NCM after 'reviewing their strategic options' decided to hold as a 'strategic investment' which to my mind implies they expect a juicy approach for their holding at some time...

So Quady is entitled to trot out facts to support his opinion and so are any of us, without being ridiculed or shot down.

To restate:

SOLG does not/will not have the critical mass to take Alpala to production on their own, which leads to a JV or a bid for Cascabel and...while there is precious little premium in the SP for the Regional projects and they can't even sell the 'small projects' a bid for the whole company by a major is a 'no brainer'...

More and more authoritative articles are coming out about an imminent Junior Miner consolidation by M&A especially among goldies...there is only 9 years global gold left to be mined...

So in conclusion my opinion is that SOLG is a no brain bid for BHP and the way in would be a JV, but my ultimate favourite is still a gold miner liking the idea of copper as a bonus, i.e. Barrick...

All opinions welcome