Member Info for mattlilly

Actually Colonel, if you look at the map of BHP's global operations in its latest Annual Report there are no blobs in the Americas at all...a few in Asia and a massive concentration in Australia...hence its strategic withdrawal to Australia...OZ adds significantly to this concentration.

addickt...

NCM is weaker
BHP wants Solgold but
BHP has no significant presence in the Americas whereas NCM does.
NCM is a gold miner; SOLG has loads of gold, including undiscovered
BHP has no meaningful presence in Ecuador; NCM does
NCM is a block caver

Using BHP's much greater financial/capital resources, the NCM 'division' would be able to buy CGP and Havieron

BHP's new strategic structure is:

Centring themselves around their substantially Oz based businesses

Divesting and merging (Woodside)
Divesting non core (coal)
Battery metals (copper, nickel so far)

So at face value it makes no sense for BHP to acquire SOLG/CGP unless they merge with NCM who also have North American interest, as well as South American (including Fruta del Norte, Lundin Gold and Solgold in Ecuador)

Medar...BHP has consolidated back into Oz...why would they reach out to South America with no business in Ecuador when they ahve a ready made 'partner'....?

Part 2...

Remember this article:

https://www.mining-journal.com/london-to-a-brick/opinion/1428389/joint-bhp-newcrest-bid-for-solgold-%E2%80%98within-months%E2%80%9D

So maybe there is some substance there...?

A joint BHP NCM bid sounds messy, so why not merge and launch a bid for Solgold...?

If BHP announced such a merger the SP of Solgold would rise substantially because the new company would own over 27% of SOLG. They would immediately have to announce what their intentions for the 27% stake were (it being in excess of the 15% threshold).

Indeed this may partly explain why BHP hasn't increased its stake in the market...

1 This would be as good as announcing their predatorfy intentions to the market
2 If they got to 15% they would have to state their intentions and...
3 If they were intending to merge with NCM (a takeover by any other name due to the disparity in size...) why bother buying more shares until that happens and then its only a hop and a skip to 30% at which point they are required to make a bid...

"Where a bidder is interested in shares carrying 30% or more of the target’s voting share rights, the bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months. Mandatory offers can only be conditional on the bidder receiving acceptances that, together with any shares already held or acquired during the offer, would give the bidder and its concert parties more than 50% of the voting rights."

""The announcement of a firm intention to make an offer (commonly referred to as a "Rule 2.7 announcement") is a significant event and will commit the bidder to proceed with the offer and to post its offer documentation within 28 days."

Sp why does this make strategic sense?

1 Newcrest's share price has underperformed BHP's for some time. They are mainly regarded as a gold miner, but...

2 They have proven and credible block caving expertise

3 BHP has rationalised its coal business and divested its gas business through the Woodside merger. Its portfolio is now iron ore, coal, copper, nickel and potash. It has NO gold division, but SOLG has masses of gold, so SOLG's gold production could be merged into a new gold division run by NCM. Indeed given that BHP has 'stepped back' into Australia where much of its business is based (88%) (and especially if it acquires Oz Minerals, which now seems likely).

4 BHP is in Oz, but NCM is in Oz AND South America

5 NCM could run the whole of the Ecuador operation.

6 From BHp's Annual Report:
"We seek to add high-quality Tier 1 copper and nickel interests through our exploration activities and early-stage entry and
acquisition options."

So at face value a BHP only bid for SOLG doesn't make any sense because BHP have consolidate into Australia and this will increase with Oz Minerals, so...

They need a 'partner' to run the Ecuador division with expertise in gold and block caving..

and Fruta del Norte...Lundi

So heres a left field idea...

In July 2020 "Australia's Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM.AX has hired investment bank RBC Capital Markets to explore options for its 13.57% stake in gold and copper producer SolGold..."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-solgold-m-a-newcrest-idUSKBN2482A6

This was immediately following the FNV deal, public criticism of Solgold and withdrawing Craig Jones from the Board...it was also only 3 months before the brakes came off BHPs stake in SOLG...

Eventually they decided to keep their stake as a 'strategic investment...'

In September 2020 an obscure German finance journal published the following article...

https://news.financial/comments/bhp-group-newcrest-mining-solgold-getting-bogged-down-or-putting-all-your-eggs-in-one-basket

Including these quotes:

"It is possible that, as in the past, acquisitions will help BHP to get off to a good start...."

and

"When it comes to mergers and acquisitions, the name Newcrest Mining is always mentioned in the resource industry. ..."

and

"Although the shares of the established companies offer stability and indirectly also a participation in the success of SolGold, speculative investors may well be interested in the emerging company."

In August 2022 Newcrest withdrew from a Cornerstone project...

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/newcrest-withdraws-option-farm-agreement-114500732.html

That was only two days after it had decided not to increase its exposure to Havieron...

https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2022/08/19/newcrest-says-no-to-extra-havieron-stake/

Read on for my theory in part 2...

Sorry...forgot the link to the Mergermarket article...

https://info.mergermarket.com/solgold-go-it-alone-strategy-debated-ahead-october-showdown-shareholders-bankers/

Remember this article from 2020. after the FNV deal..?

"The capital raise was a bit strange...but seems to have had the effect of putting management in a stronger position....
SolGold is right for consolidation...so it must either be sold or build the Cascabel project itself, but it is difficult to see how current management can do that on its own. There is a lot of value in Solgold’s assets and a sale of the company would be desirable....

It may be the tactic is to attract an offer, and that COVID-19 might have slowed down a potential sale, but given that management own a large stake in the business it may also be focusing on developing the company itself...


“You don’t want to get stuck in this asset, you want movement on an offer or on the Cascabel project, which has massive potential,” Neuhauser said.

BHP is most likely interested in owning Cascabel given that so very few assets of this size are available in the world, (Brooke) Macdonald said. “It is a monster.”

“With copper prices on the up, and gold going gangbusters, I think someone will make a move towards end of the year,” Macdonald said. “We want to launch a strategic review and sale process in order to open up the data room to a wider universe of companies and get competitive tension to maximise value for shareholders.”

The sale process could be structured in such a way as to allow third parties to competitively bid, given the concentrated ownership, and that would support a friendly deal and encourage success, he said."

Maybe this is the scenario playing out 2 years late...

Strategic review (share price up sharply)...data room (come and buy us...)

Whatever, as the Colonel has implied..."Summats Up!"...

Agree that Colonel...so is the plan for the current management to run the Ecuador division of BHP...?

Before last years AGM...

"UK Corporate Governance best practice guidelines provide that a company puts forward all Directors for re-election every year at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) unless the company has a clearly articulated and compelling reason to pursue an alternative path, which is the case with SolGold."

And...

"I believe that SolGold is on a path to achieving a level of corporate governance best practice that is comparable with if not exceeds that of our peer group both in the UK as well as in Australia."

Let's see if he puts the whole Board up for reelection....

Darryls created loads of shareholder value...

Up more than 50% since he started and up 150% since March...

OOPS! Sorry, got the graph upside down...

More hot air than there is on here...?

You're calling them arrogant while you are pontificating about them while admitting to 'doing nothing' yourself.

That is the height of arrogance.

They are arrogant for trying to do something and flying to conferences.

You are criticising them despite them doing a very great deal while you don't care a jot about my grandchildren!

744/988k (75%) shares traded account dfor by just 7 trades...

So Orthern...

What are you personally doing about climate change?

And are you suggesting that we should do nothing...?

Its a mindset change...

A few ostriches on here that care naught for my grandchildren's future...

Yet another pathetic trope..."why don't you complain about China/India...blah blah...

Think on this...

Why are you still taking foreign holidays by jet...?

"By 2020, aviation emissions were 70% higher than in 2005 and they could grow by 300% by 2050. However, just 1 percent of the world’s population is responsible for half the emissions caused by aviation, while almost 90 percent of people hardly ever fly, according to research by the Western Norway Research Institute."

I think you should return to Middle Earth RMR where you obviously belong...

Filtered...again...

I feel sorry for your one eyed view Orthern.

https://www.diggingforclimatechange.com/?utm_campaign=MJ%20-%20CM%20-%20Digging%20for%20climate%20change%202021&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=228443982&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8WPalrHz77So_31ZPdNR0SEAo-LTnCx9KuaZyUy8_6XB-VeOOcqPnZ8VfCvTskI11bzHx0gC8ncFytBTbFKtzhuNLkRKm00Gw8yXuT3KrKq0n2z4I&utm_content=228443982&utm_source=hs_email

At the cheese factory...

One bargain of 300k accounts for 60% of today's volume...

I suppose it could be worse...

Nobody's selling and nobody's buying...deja vu...?

You mean like ISO 9000?

"ISO 9000 was first published in 1987 by the International Organization for Standardization "

Climate change

"In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common. "

The UK Corporate Givernance Code

"The Code is essentially a consolidation and refinement of a number of different reports and codes concerning opinions on good corporate governance. The first step on the road to the initial iteration of the code was the publication of the Cadbury Report in 1992.

In 2010, a new Stewardship Code was issued by the Financial Reporting Council, along with a new version of the UK Corporate Governance Code, hence separating the issues from one another. "

Corporate Social Responsibility

"Since the 1960s,[17] corporate social responsibility has attracted attention from a range of businesses and stakeholders....

According to the CSR Journal, the millennial generation worldwide helps propel brands toward social responsibility. Many millennials want to conduct business with companies and trademarks that employ pro-social themes,[185] sustainable manufacturing processes,[186] and ethical business practices."

I agree with you Orthern but that doesn't m ake SOLG's efforts any less worthy...

They are paying 800 employees and supportin g indigenous communities including giving eductaional opportunites and training for women...

What do you want them to do, give up mining, which is hardly a green activity...?

However, they are movingforward with renewables and copper is fundamental to electromobility.

And across at ATYM they will produce 74% of their energy needs from renewables in a years time.

No harm in trying...oil companies have no ESG credibility but ESG is here to stay and we will soon be sorting the good and the credible from the bad and the fakers...