Member Info for mattlilly

An intelligent observation anon...thanks and push off...

Filtered...

Its bizarre that the SP has only moved in a 1% band all morning...

That suggests very strongly to me that it is being held...maybe pending an announcement...such as the sale of the share stake (during or immediately after Darryl's presentation).

It would not be difficult for Citi and the house brokers to hold the SP in the meantime...

Indeed those two 100k sells could be designed to keep a cap on the SP with the threat of more to come...

Meanwhile I can only buy or sell 50k on a very tight spread...

Surely it pretty obvious Bozi...

Sell the shares for $30m cash post the merger or

Sell them to a hungry investor pre merger and lend the cash to SOLG until the merger.

I repeat...NO CASH WORRIES...

And yes the drilling can start but surely SOLG won't be an independent entity at 31 December...

Start the bdding war now or...

Bring it on with an offer of 135p a share...

In a few months time when you have the agonising decision as to what to spend your newfound riches on, you will reflect on 12 October as the day the blue touch paper was lit...

This is a very very cleverly put together presentation...

(Unfortunately to be delivered by vanilla man...)

Yep!

BHP right now have to decide whether to stick, twist or bust, because they've waited far too long to try and get their grubby hands on your shares...

So...

Twist...make a bid with the intention of succeeding in a bidding war...

Stick...keep the holding pending the best possible price

Bust...sell out to the first party that comes along with an offer of 75p or more...

So now is the time to start thinking seriously about when you will sell part or all of your SOLG shares...?

There are two major considerations:

1 Are you holding out for maximum gain, but...

2 What is going to happen in the wider markets?

The latter being important because if a wider crash happens before the endgame it couid significantly impact the final price of SOLG, and also

A further capitulation in UK markets will open up opportunities for capital gain and dividend yields that could make any further gain in SOLG (after the stake sale surge) look pedestrian...

e.g. Jupiter Fund Management, down 70% since January, currently on a notional yield of 20% plus....

(That is NOT a recommendation...just an illustration of the 'value' that is already there...)

My conclusion is that we can safely assume something will happen either in DC's presentation or in the next few days to spark a bidding war...

Solgold is saying that Cascabel alone is worth a minimum of 78p and anything up to £1 or more...

"So if you want us you're going to have to pay top dollar."

My guess is that the presentation has been skilfully stitched together by Maxit and Citi to give more than enough signals...

Now that the cash issue has gone away, only the takeover war remains.

The key is what happens to CGP's SOLG shareholding

If it goes to a neutral holder, like a Norges Bank type, we're still waiting...

If it goes to Mitsui or a party who would very definitely seem to be a possible suitor, that surely lights the touch paper

It won't go to BHP or NCM, but where does NCM's 'strategic' stake go and at what price?

My guess for some time now has been that there is a potential suitor lined up, waiting to counter the first bid or if that takes too long, to make the first bid.

Remember, BHP's purchase of Guinea's 6.1% stake in September 2018 more than doubled SOLG's SP in 7 weeks...

Expect at least that to happen here...if SOLG survives for 7 weeks if the stake is bought by a 'seriously interested party'...

Given that the presentation almost certainly covers all the points we can see, one wonders why the market is waiting...?

The SP has hardly moved all morning...the volume is low...

Theres been a series of 30kish trades...is this someone building a position or a trader rolling over T10/T20s...?

Or is the price being held...?

That would be surprising because there is more than enough meat in the presentation to:

1 Reassure the market...especially about cash (which could be OK until next June)

2 Light up a blazing For Sale sign

No short term cash problems then...

"
• 157.1 million shares with potential to raise in excess of US$30 million
• Potential for Cornerstone to place these shares to strategic investors
• Proceeds would be loaned to SolGold ahead of transaction closing on terms to be agreed

Page 8

AN EMERGING COPPER GOLD MAJOR /8
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FUNDS
? Cornerstone holds 6.84% of SolGold shares
• 157.1 million shares with potential to raise in excess of US$30 million
• Potential for Cornerstone to place these shares to strategic investors
• Proceeds would be loaned to SolGold ahead of transaction closing on terms to be agreed
? SolGold is well progressed on a number of alternative funding options
• Strong interest in SolGold assets remains despite challenging short-term market dynamics
• Copper’s medium/long-term fundamentals intact
• Cascabel is well positioned to supply into an emerging structural deficit amid a weak broader project pipeline

Page 5 says we are at least 50% undervalued vs peers...before any bid...

Page 6 says minimum value of Cascabel is 78p/share

Page 7

COMBINED GROUP IN A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER POSITION TO ENSURE SHAREHOLDERS
ARE REWARDED FOR THE TIER 1 CASCABEL PROJECT
? SolGold to pursue a strategic review process focused on exploration of value creating alternatives
? Simplified ownership structure sets up the company to evaluate a range of value-enhancing options
? The strategic review process may include, but is not limited to, evaluating and pursuing the following:
• Evaluating financing alternatives for the combined group
• A spin-out of assets, other than the Cascabel Project, to all shareholders
• The direct or indirect acquisition of an interest in ENSA and/or the Cascabel Project howsoever effected
• Any other transaction or series of related transactions as may be agreed to between the partie

Look in the dropdown...theres an October presentation. Apart from what SM has posted...

Simplified structure enhances opportunity to bring in a long-term strategic investor
• Streamlined ownership at Cascabel and SolGold more attractive
• A larger stake in Cascabel is more attractive to a strategic partner

Addition of Cornerstone’s Ecuadorian and Chilean exploration portfolio
• 12.5% of Bramaderos JV with Sunstone Metals carried to production
• Interests in Cana Brava, Bella Maria and ENAMI Strategic Exploration Alliance in Ecuador, and Miocene in Chile

Significant re-rating potential
• Combined company currently trades at a discount on key value metrics
• Transaction a first step towards unlocking valu

Focused on value maximization
• A simplified structure sets the stage for a strategic review of the combined company
• Our top priority is maximizing value for all shareholders

Its very simple.

Solgold doesn't have to find any cash to pay CGP investors.

So the cash need is as before.

So if Darryl's statement can be taken at face value, there is cash until the end of the year...

I was wrong about the cash need on the merger, as this statement makes clear...

"Pursuant to the terms of the Agreement, SolGold may elect to pay up to 20% of the consideration in cash, in which case the cash would be pro rated among all Cornerstone shareholders and the number of SolGold Shares issuable to Cornerstone shareholders would be reduced. "

So we can now focus on the takeover prospects and any gems that Darryl leaks out in the presentation...

No doubt we're set up for another boring DC presentation restating what we know and with no new news...

We needed a juicy RNS today...vague hope he might issue one as he speaks...?

Dont hold your breath.

Nick was stultifying at presenting but at least he gave us something to chew on every couple of weeks...

Which way do you want to do it add...?

At 15 for 1 on a SP of 16.2p, CGP should be at $3.74 (cf $3.25) or...

At a SP of $3.25, SOLG should be at 14.1p...

Which way do you want it...?

Meanwhile we need to keep in mind that the FTSE is down 7% in a month and it has fallen for the last five days...

And the FTSE350 is down more than 8%...

Copper is languishing at $3.38 and gold is down almost 4 % in a week...

Until the bid rumours gather pace the share cannot be unaffected by markets in general...

My entire ISA is in SOLG, ATYM and GPM (copper/gold; copper; gold/silver)...an excellent hedge, but not immune from general market falls...

My God...look at all the autobots again...55/60 most recent trades...

Agreed...and surely they would need a "We have received an approach that may lead to a bid..." RNS.

My assumprion is that any battle if it happens will be fought out between possibly org(s) that approach and some that don't...

Unless theres a knockout bid to start with that is higher than any other prospective bidder would contemplate...