Member Info for mattlilly

Bought another 98409 for Mrs...

In LatAm Investor on 10 August 2022, just 2 months before the merger RNS, Cornerstone's President Brooke MacDonald (then CEO) said:

"“There are simply not enough copper projects in the development pipelines of major mining companies to meet the anticipated demand for electric vehicles and low-carbon electrical infrastructure by 2030-2050, and underinvestment by the majors in early-stage copper exploration means to maintain their production profiles and market valuations they will need to buy reserves – by acquiring juniors like Cornerstone and SolGold – to replace reserve depletion, so we anticipate a frenzy of M&A activity for existing copper projects like Cascabel...."

The article concluded...

"Macdonald expects Cornerstone Capital Resources to be bought out within the next 12 months. At present the company’s market cap stands at around $119million with a share price hovering around CAD$3.19. Yet analysts believe the recent pre-feasibility study for Cascabel means Cornerstone is worth much more. A conservative estimate from David Davidson, the Senior Analyst, at Paradigm Capital, has a $6.50 target on the stock, which he rates as a speculative buy."

So why only 2 months later did CGP sell out for $4.07/share...?

And just to encourage you, here is the Investors Chronicle from 9 May 2022:

"The deal many juniors look up to is the 2018 buyout of Arizona Mining by South32 (S32), which paid $1.3bn for a pre-production zinc-lead-manganese asset (and some smaller options) in the US. The company was valued at $1.6bn, and the Hermosa project’s last net present value before the sale was $2bn.

A similar discount for mining hopeful SolGold (SOLG) would see it taken out for £2.35bn, around 3.7 times its current market capitalisation, based on its recent pre-feasibility study for the Cascabel copper mine, which outlined a net present value of $2.9bn. "

That would value SOLG at 103p a share...

Apart from Sangha, Irwin, MacDonald and Mather making blatant statements that could be construed as idicating a takeover bid/war, there is a simple logic that persuades me.

It is based on the reason why CGP, having been daggers drawn against NM in particulart after he tabled SOLG's second bid attempt and having argued a financial case that the SOLG bid massively undervalued it, they have now thrown their lot in with SOLG/NM on terms that are a fraction of their own valuation previously.

Ther is an adjunct...and that is that they need to keep accessing capital markets to keep going rather than reduce their SOLG holding further (especially at uneconomic prices) and Capital Markets aren't exactly flooding with funding offers at the moment.

So here is the simple case:

On 30 June 2020, SOLG offered 11 shares for 1 in CGP. The offer valued CGP at 22% above the closing price on 29 June ($3.58), i.e. $4.37/share. At the time SOLG's SP was 20.85p...

In their detailed rebuttal CGP used two calculations to ward off SOLG.

One valued CGP at $12.50 a share

The other at $20 a share.

CGP's closing price before the merger was announced on 7 October was $2.63. The merger valued CGP at $4.07/share.

CGP's SP is now $4.13...

So...leaving aside the difficulty of financing a portfolio, there can be only one reason why they have thrown their lot in with SOLG at terms WORSE than those they considered derisory just over 2 years ago...the clue is in a "Gold Telegraph' article from October 2021 in which Brooke MacDonald, President of CGP was interviewed...he said:

"We think buying Cornerstone is a better way to invest in Cascabel because we trade at a significant discount to SolGold despite sharing the same underlying flagship asset, a gap we believe will close up when a major mining company acquires both companies, which we think is only a matter of time."

Assore owns 23.79% of ATL for those who missed the significance...

It would be a great pityif you left Lunch. You add a lot to this Board.

I've found life much more relaxing since I filtered 43 eejits...two in particular...

Yet....Sumitomo...and here...?

"Japan’s Sumitomo Corp has increased its share in Oresteel Investments, a holding company that owns a controlling interest in Assore Ltd, the 50% owner of South African iron ore and minerals producer Assmang."

Thats a sound post SM...white knights are usually used to defend a company against a bid. However...

I see four possible scenarios:

SOLG already talking to a prospective bidder(s)

Somebody, such as BHP, launches an insulting bid at, say 40/45p...Sangha has a party lined up to counter...a bidding war ensues with possibly others entering the fray until we do a Noront (23c to 110c)

A bid emerges from a likely successful bidder which would be followed by a bidding war IMO unless it was a knockout bd, which for me would have to be 100/200p to take SOLG out of play.

No such bid emerges as potential suitors hold their fire to see what happens (after all BHP have waited more than 2 years after they were released from their covenant), so Sangha brings a 'friendly' bidder to the table knwoing that it will trigger a bidding war.

All I can say is, I've twice woken up to find that the vale of my SOLG holding has at least doubled...this time I'm hoping for much more even than that...

Majors CANNOT keep talking about massive copper shortages down the road without finally doin g something about it...I still think there's a big game of 'chicken' being played between majors with enough firepower to take us out with 'petty cash'...

Day after day...

Market Quote 18.54/18.72

Actual dealing prices in NMS 18.57/18.59

Bid for 300,000 at 18.42...

I have to assume there is still a big buyer there...adding to the stake they are about to buy from CGP, or building a stake as a foundation for a bid...?

The vast majority of today's trades are Autobots, so I still think there is something going on behind scenes in the market.

"create companis...and then ultimately majors eeem to take them over"

Just look at Atlantic Lithium...

Lunch...if you want to put that interpretation on it then fine, but to me, taking Nick's statement and Sangha's irreverent comment I believe we are on the verge of something big...maybe life changing for some of us...and it sure as h**l aint a J/V...

At 2.55 he says "the basic idea and the model we have been following successcfully for some years is to create companis arpund very very large resource projects and then ultimately majors eeem to take them over and thats certainly the plan in respect of Solgold..."

Which means we are NOT going to production and if he said that 3 months ago, together with the CGP merger, you can bet your life that we aren't far off the big payday...

At 2.55 he says "the basic idea and the model we have been following successcfully for some years is to create companis arpund very very large resource projects and then ultimately majors eeem to take them over and thats certainly the plan in respect of Solgold..."

Which means we are NOT going to production and if he said that 3 months ago, together with the CGP merger, you can bet your life that we aren't far off the big payday...

Orthern, the logic seems eminently simple to me...

Bob Dangha IS Maxit Capital.

Maxit's business is M&A

Maxit has been retained to advise BOTH companies, not just CGP

"Pursuant to the Agreement, SolGold is pursuing a strategic review process with the goal of maximizing value for all shareholders (the "Strategic Review Process"). Accordingly, SolGold has appointed Citigroup Global Markets Inc. ("Citi") and Maxit Capital LP ("Maxit Capital") to act as financial advisors to assist with exploring value creating alternatives for the Combined Group. "

If Sangha very publicly gives a considered view for an article in which he features large, that BHP and NCM can go "f*** themselves" it does NOT suggest a sale of Cascabel because that would surely raise the SP significantly and BHP and NCM would be direct beneficiaries, making a handsome profit on their shares should they wish to take it. And why wouldn't they, as the 'jewel in the crown' would have gone...

The article would have been drafted beforehand and Sangha have an opportunity to proof read it. It strongly suggested to me that there is something big coming which won't please BHP and NCM...

No he said that.

Hi Lunch

In the Business Activity RNS on July 28 SOLG said:

"Porvenir is the Company's second priority after Cascabel and SolGold has engaged M3 to progress the Porvenir project Pre-Economic Assessment ("PEA") that is on track for completion by year-end."

Whch accords with your quote:

""On July 28, 2022, the Company provided an update on the progress of activities within its exploration portfolio and
the Cascabel Project and, among other things, advised that Porvenir is on track for Pre-Economic Assessment
completion by year-end"

The FY started on June 30 so it sounds like the Porvenir process began early in the new FY, so I don't see why it can't be completed by 31 Dec, unless...something else intervenes...

Lunch...at Noosa only a few months ago, Nick made clear SOLG will be sold...

Orthern...you'll be sorry...we now have 2.2 million riding on this...

Don't even think of selling...not long now...?

That's a good point Lunch. It would seem irresponsible to plan $80m with only $61m in the bank, so...

Stake sale RNS imminent...?

No regional drilling at all in Q1 outside of Moran...