The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Watch BTBT.. this is considered the cheapest miner with 2.23EH of capacity and is trading now at $600m. ARB will be 1.1EH by Feb 2021, which given we are more efficient, and in better jurisdictions, would mean our market cap should be closer to $300m - or 3x upside - once our US listing is complete.
Note we have an operational update early next week too which should showing a very strong December given the estimated profit/TH.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html#3m
Seems like average mining profitability in Dec is around $0.17/TH vs $0.13 in Nov. Expecting a very good Dec update next week for ARB.
To further put that into perspective, thats over 15m effective DDDD shares (7.5x ratio) when our daily average on AIM is under 4m shares.
Huge volume on $LOAC today. Its already traded 2.05m shares vs average of just 25k. Finally our US friends are waking up to the potential here of 4D Pharma.
There's a simpler way to get around the $2 minimum, just alter the ratio of UK shares to the US listing. A 8:1 share ratio would already meet the $2 minimum. Many dual listed companies do this - it doesn't always need to be 1:1.
https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1341638540095074308?s=19
Says the LFT used is 100% at CT<29 and is exactly working as expected. Questions why Deeks used a CT<25 cutoff when looking at data, and also the 3% headline claim.
Almost as if Deeks wants the Innova test to look bad. Is he a shareholder of Avacta?? :)
Been in SAE since June and have been topping up recently sub 19p down to 15p last week. My average is now up to 10p.
I've been loading up since it breached 20p (obviously too early now in hindsight!) but can anyone confirm the price of the initial tranche is 5 days VWAP or does that only apply to the future tranches only? Re-reading the placing RNS says the investor buys £2m at prevailing 5 day VWAP plus an additional 5-10% discount? To me it makes sense for the share price to be as low as possible this week (VWAP is going to be around 16p for the initial tranche) - so perhaps some market shenanigans is what has caused the share price to continue falling this week perhaps? With future tranches cancellable by SAE if the share price is below 20p, I would presume it would be in the investors interest to see the share price above this in the coming 12 months when they can exercise the future £6m total tranches.
I'm expecting news next week by DDDD detailing the LOAC merger. The investor relations team emailed me on 18th Nov as below:
18 Nov 2020, 14:40
Thank you for your enquiry. We understand many in our investor community are not familiar with this sort of transaction and have some common questions about the merger and NASDAQ listing they would like clarifying. In the next few weeks we plan to issue comprehensive FAQ-style information on the merger, ADS facility and dual-listing etc. To ensure everyone has access to the same comprehensive information we would ask that you bear with us while we finalise the information, and once this is published if your queries are not satisfactorily addressed please feel free to get back in touch at this address.
Best regards,
Investor Relations, 4D pharma plc
4D pharma plc
Fifth Floor
9 Bond Court
Leeds
LS1 2JZ
United Kingdom
ir@4dpharmaplc.com
www.4dpharmaplc.com
Another way is just look at market cap pre and post merger, assuming all things stay equal.
Pre-merger market cap is 131.4m x 93.2p = £122.5m
Merger involves issuing 19.8m shares and absorbing LOAC cash of say £7.5m post fees.
New market cap would be £130m, and divided by enlarged outstanding shares of 151.2m shares, gets you to 89.6p.
There does seem to be buying support just below 90p so perhaps those arbitraging could say it's undervalued below 90p, until of course the company announces something material.
Good that SPACs are scrutinised more. Investors here need to see what is really going on with the LOAC merger. Yes DDDD are going to get listed on the NASDAQ, yes DDDD are going to get cash in the bank ($14.6m less fees, which could end up less than $10m when all completed), and yes DDDD will issue over 19m new shares as part of the merger.
19m shares for $10m cash + NASDAQ listing - is this worth it for existing DDDD shareholders - that is the question you need to answer.
The price action is saying near term - this is quite a dilution for existing holders to take and probably why the share price has been weak. LT, if we believe the discount valuation to Seres is unjustified, then this is a fantastic opportunity to get in. Ultimately fundamentals will prevail... DYOR and good luck all!
I would argue that this should be maximum £1.10 until the merger. If DDDD.L trades above £1.10, you could arbitrage by buying the LOAC shares/units and converting post merger.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-antibody-firm-abingdon-health-tests-market-on-100m-float-12133864
Article from a couple days ago..
Yup noix. In the long term it will be more beneficial with a NASDAQ listing so hope investors will accept the 'dilution' - even 4D mentioned this in the RNS:
"A comprehensive analysis of available SPACs has been conducted by the 4D Directors, who sought to identify a SPAC with sufficient capital to extend meaningfully the Company's cash runway without excessively diluting the holdings of 4D's Shareholders. Longevity was identified as the preferred SPAC during this process."
In any case, 4D investor relations responded to an email and they will issue a comprehensive FAQ detailing the merger, ADS facility, and dual-listing in the coming weeks. Hopefully it will address all questions they say.
Thanks Noix. I agree with you here that the NASDAQ listing is the key thing. It's just the thought that is this an effective placing that made me dig further. If we placed 19.7m shares at £1.1, I would expect £21.67m cash in our coffers post completion. But we are not.
Also interesting with SPACS are the founder shares.. 1m LOAC shares were issued to Whale Management for just $25,000. Sounds like they got a fantastic deal out of it as those shares are going to become 7.5m 4D shares, worth a cool $9.5m at current prices!
Do explain and correct please Zengah.
Thanks Noix for the reply. I have spent a bit of time today looking into the mechanics, but I'm not sure I agree that this is effectively a placing at £1.10.
You even say "Longevity shareholders acquire 13.1% of the enlarged share capital of the Company (150,000,000 shares approx.) for the $14.6 million." 13.1% of 150m shares is around 19.6m shares. So we are issuing nearly 20m new shares for $14.6m in capital, or $0.75 per new 4D share, or 57p/share (@1.3£$FX).
This calculation is confirmed the other way, which is "7.5315 new shares for every Longevity share held", and LOAC had 2,626,822 shares outstanding as of October 2020. So that would mean 19.78m shares issues to LOAC shareholders.
And if you say after expenses and liabilities, the cash left is just $9m, well thats an effective placing at $0.46, or just 35p a share!!!
Have I got my numbers wrong?