Member Info for MatrixObserver

Hey all

Think have finally calculated gas oil ratio for MJF, is based on recent MJF elicense doc (dated 12-Mar-2019, page 4).

Magic average number is: 3.2347... is M3 of associated gas per barrel of oil, from this can extrapolate oil produced versus annual gas (table, page 6).

From this I think I can calculate CASPs annual production forecast for MJF, is only rough idea until clearer baseline.

2019 - 2,606 bopd
2020 - 3,057 bopd
2021 - 3,169 bopd
2022 - 3,089 bopd
2023 - 2,886 bopd
2024 - 2,970 bopd

Is obviously crude extrapolation, based on average GOR production of approx 1m barrels to 01-Jul-2018...

For fun can apply to permit to flare for, say well 54 (2083-2088m), produces 86310 M3 gas for 90 day test = 296 bopd, if GOR same as MJF

Good luck CASPers

MO

... and CASP will be paying a divi near to today's SP...

In MO's Matrix anyway...

Good luck all CASPers...

MO

Hey CC

Am all translated out now !!!

Re: How would you read that in context Mo ?

Would say not too deeply, lol, can't find that phrase in my translation, are many bugs and undocumented features in the Matrix, especially in translation, sometimes lost or completely wrong, have discovered many today !!!

Is now up to CASP, Smart Engineering and Sinopec to deliver on plans.

Good luck all CASPers, and goodnight !

MO

LOL CC, not sure exactly what bit you're referring to...

Seems to have translated reasonably well, struggled with the scanned Cyrillic text recognition, think MO's tools need Rusky upgrade, lol

Taken much more time than planned, c'est la vie...

Good luck

MO

Hey all

Firstly, props to Adrianz for the heads-up to the files, I have uploaded both the original and translation effort, for reference purposes in case of mis-translation.

Have done best endeavour with translation, 267 pages, some bits are from BNG Ltd scanned Russian docs (page 245+), so will probably require manual interpretation from original, anyone ???

This is the first of 2 docs for Airshagyl, is very technical and comprehensive, with mud constituents, cementing, lots more...

Did notice predicted Sulphur content of 0.85% (page 33), also has more info on condensate, is pleasing reading so far... Some new pics/maps but not much else in first one, is good bedtime reading ;-}

Anyway... Pre-Translation

https://anonfile.com/c5W3A4Wdm5/ORIG-Airshagyl-Smart-Eng-Doc1-of-2_pdf

Translated (well lots is)

https://anonfile.com/6fg4CbW5md/TRANS-ru-en-Airshagyl-Smart-Eng-Doc1-of-2_pdf

Cheers all

MO

Hey Adrianz...

I can now see where you are coming from regarding Smart Engineering's role :-)

Will see if can assist in translation... Trying 11-dop-k-gtp-ajyrsagyl-5300m first.

MO

Hey CC

Submitted plan is for eventual water injection wells, over a 25 year lifespan, MJF sulphur content is 1.3% so low compared to some neighbours with H2S and high sulphur content > 10%, also the gas production from the shallow intervals is minimal, so very unlikely could work economically.

Sour/associated gas injection may come into play with the deeps, at present no H2S observed, this may change when going into the deeper Carboniferous and Devonian geology.

Is exciting times, but will not get carried away, lol

Time for some sci-fi, have a good-un

MO

Hi Adrianz

Think MO's communication interface was a little fried last night, too much + rose' and fresh air...

Was referring to Airshagyl environmental approval that referenced Smart Engineering, did notice from their website that they worked on Dunga field development. Think got confused as observed a different name on recent MJF application, i.e LLP Sci Res ???

Have been trying to work out MJF bits today, based on said permit from mid March...

Think oil has average API gravitiy of 28, field size is 12.876 km2.

STOIIP. of approx 55mmbbls (stock-tank oil initially in place, the volume of oil in a reservoir prior to production)

C1 (proven) reserves of approx 16.5mmbbls = Recovery factor of 30%, C2 (probable) reserves of approx 3.5mmbbls

Is less in probable category than previous GCA reserve estimate, probably due to water ingress.

Anyway, apols if understated Smart Engineering's involvement, hope they rock !!!!

All the best and good luck all CASPers, they say when waiting for a red bus, they often come all in one go...

Can hope

MO

Hey CC

A couple of images below give an idea of neighbours geology and depths.

https://pg.lyellcollection.org/content/petgeo/6/1/59/F2.large.jpg

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jeroen_Kenter/publication/283008392/figure/fig1/AS:669022253232141@1536518743934/Oil-gas-fields-in-the-greater-Caspian-region-with-an-oblique-structural-view-showing.ppm

Cheers

MO

Cheers adrianz...

Did check their website... Could do with some recent'ish news updates/refresh, maybe too busy or uninclined... last update 2013 !!!

http://www.smartengineering.kz/eng/news/24.html

Anyway, not judging book by its cover... Think they may have advised CASP in a more environmental role, I suppose, ultimately and most importantly, plans were approved !!

Think CASP doing right well plan on A8, by running intermediate casing to top of reservoir, is what most now do, nice and slow through the salt layer (maybe 100-200m), then the unknown sub-salt, usually a mish-mash of everything, maybe 300m, then gas cap/ limestone reservoir, MO's guess is slightly shallower than A5, think will hit gas ~4300m..

MO has now finished garden fence (hooray), war wounds abound, alas Mrs Matrix never satisfied even though is quality job !!!

c'est la vie !!!

In spare time have been looking at near neighbour Tengiz, is massive, is like underground Ayers Rock shaped oil field, with 1.6km thick total intervals in places... Totally enclosed by salt, some 4km thick in places...

https://www.chevron.com/projects/tengiz-expansion

Anyway, MO was looking for analogous features to deeps at BNG in pre-caspian basin, both seem to hit oil just below 4000m, Tengiz flank wells seem to go to 5000-5200m, can see...

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jeroen_Kenter/publication/283008392/figure/fig2/AS:669022257430533@1536518744575/Structure-map-of-the-top-of-the-Tengiz-buildup-showing-the-geographic-distribution-of.png

Will post anything MO can see, is quiet at the mo...

Cheers all, as Bagpus would say.... ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

MO + rose'

Hey L3

Have seen a production forecast graph many moons ago... But did not record any link, maybe it was in an earlier ENQ presentation.

Maybe plans to sell Enquest Producer FPSO or move it when finished with Alma.

Who knows... not MO

Cheers

L3... "do you remember when was the last time did Enq producer offloaded its oil?"

Sorry, no, was around 50-60 days interval (5k bopd) at last count, but was removed from MO's observation list...

Good luck

MO

Hey L3

According to Scapa Flow is off to the city of brotherly love...

Philadelphia, East Coast USA !!!

The topically named "Euro" tanker should receive load tomorrow from Heather Knutsen...

Side note... Thanks to all for good number crunching, E121 and L3 do get down to the nitty-gritty of the numbers, respect !!!

Can see why many think ENQ finances are complex, lol, pays to be reasonable at maths...

Good luck all

MO

Hey CC

Oil Well Sidetrack (according to Google Translate) =

????? ???????? ????????

Pronounced, otvod neftyanoy skvazhiny

Hopefully won't be hearing that for a little while... MO prefers

???????? ???????????? ?????? A5, 4 ???. ???????? ? ????? (Nachalos' testirovaniye potoka A5, 4 tys. Barreley v sutki)

Which is... A5 flow test commenced, 4k bopd...

@MLQ, new potential resource is still under review, will defo let know if anything interesting..

Back to manual labour in garden...

Good luck all CASPers

MO

Hey CC

Sure will appear when ready... Did observe previous unused and inactive A5 and 801 flaring permits, From Nov 17 and Jul 18 respectively).

i.e.

for 801, 2.4975 million m³ when testing the I-th object of the horizon C1 test period: 90 (in the intervals of 4824-4840 m.)

for A5, 5.8275 million m³ when testing the II object of the P1 as horizon test period: 90 days (in the intervals of 4385-4395 m.)

Gives an idea of associated gas, maybe some correlation with bopd, soon will see (hopefully).

Have also very recently observed a new to MO resource, is potentially interesting, will see if proves useful and if so, share info.

Good luck all CASPers...

MO gotta go and repair some fencing... Cheers

MO

Hey DK...

Guessing SP is futile, lol... Is often irrational versus value...

Looking forward... Many variables in-play... Poo being the most influential...

ENQ is certainly currently worth more than current SP, any worries about RCF payment of $170m for April are gone... all but $50m been retired (hope correct, was from presentation audio), Mercuria pre-paid due to finish in May, will free-up 2.5k-3k bopd, need good POO for 2019 and production guidance met with success on pipeline fixes and bypass.

Magnus has proven more important and valuable than first anticipated...

Good luck all

MO

Hey londoner7

Is simple extrapolation based on AB's hint during Q&A...

Mentioned guidance of 30-35k (mid-point 32.5k) for AK, said was currently 63% production efficiency, so when can get to target in the 80% , will be around 42k bopd, with possible max around 51k.

Nothing more than that...

Cheers

MO

To all Kazakh CASPers

Is nice national holiday celebrating onset of spring...

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&u=https://www.kt.kz/rus/state/kazahstantsy_prazdnuyut_nauryz_meyramy_1377882092.html

No drinking or smoking near the wells, danke' ;-)

Cheers

MO

Hey E121

Was almost all AK questions...

One was about AK's potential... Stating AK currently 63% production efficiency, aiming to get into 80% +, like other assets.

AB, said can work it out from guidance mid of 32.5k = AK at 63% p/e, aiming for 80's

Is how MO deciphered it...

All the best

MO

Was very comprehensive regarding Kraken issues... Warts 'n' all

If can get AK to 80% production efficiency on both trains = approx 42k bopd at mid-point of guidance, 100% = 51.5k bopd at midpoint...

Rest of assets looking good too, knew Magnus was excellent deal.. Also have Scolty/Crathes pipeline in Q3.

Good luck all ENQers

MO