Member Info for mathsprof

A bit risky to sell before open if you intend to buy back cheaper. If the money is for something else, fair enough.

Topo - maybe. But it shows me there could well be a contrary opinion that CCL is overpriced and one day (perhaps today) it will remain tanked for a few days to well below £13

Indeed. Where do we go next?

I have done some number crunching, involving comparing sp and market cap from 2018 onwards.

If CCL is ever to surpass its max mcap (c$50b in early 2018) the sp will need to get to $39.50 or £28. There are now 76% more shares in issue than early 2018.

I reckon that this sort of sp will only be reached when enough of the debt is cleared to start paying decent dividends again. This will take 5 or more years in all likelihood.

So £28 seems a fair long term target for CCL, given no new major upsets . In the short term , I reckon anything over £13.75 would bring us into overbought territory. There's a long way to go until £28.

I read an interesting article about the cost of package holidays to popular destinations. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66042289

Most destinations now over £1000 per person per week for land based holiday. As a result cruises offer increasing value, meaning one or both of two things.

More demand. Higher cruise prices soon. Both good news for investors and the SP.

The problem with today's results are that they are ok, not much different from what was expected several months ago.

The SP had raced away in the last month on a bullish BofA outlook and the hope that the results would not be ok, but excellent. So I'm not surprised that we've dipped below £10 again. Let's see where we settle by the end of the week. Somewhere between £9 and £11, I guess!!!

In auction. US tumbling though

Or is drop just nerves?

Are results out?

I can't see them yet/

Usually 15 min before US open - ie 2.15pm

P.S. I think the SP is now too far ahead of itself. Not that it won't go higher before the inevitable retrace.

Yes, my target was a mere £11, which I've had for over 12 months.

So all I'm holding now are my "free" shares. Won't buy more (unless the unlikely(?? ) drop below £10 occurs.

I seem to have missed the excitement by being out for the day at the cricket! (Mind you the batting was good.)

Much better though is today's amazing rise. I can't really believe we've got comfortably over £10 - a figure I wasn't expecting for some while yet. However this does seem a fair price, on the assumption that we are going to get good results. If the results are not much better than projections of a few months ago, I think we will rapidly retrace to under £9.

An unusual pattern today. We're up on US close, and are climbing before the US early birds start at 9am.

Yes, a beautiful day.

Bhants

Last week we had a worse outbreak of Novovirus, but little happened except frequent handwashing messages and telling us to use our own facilities. The strange thing was that we were first told it was Covid, and 1 minute later the outbreak had changed to Novovirus. Masks were quickly put away!

Have a good trip!

nooby - I wasn't really being serious! But yes, were they to delist, a offer of US shares would be made.

No sorry. My first interest in CCL (late 2019?) was when the SP was £42. US price was $57.
And for comparison NCLH was $55 and RCL was $120

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CCL/carnival-plc-extends-stock-share-sale-purchase-program-6ronwszp9shxmq1.html

The closing date must have been extended again. but this site is poor on RNSs at present.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CCL/carnival-stock-purchase-plan-swv15jxke8tipw6.html

The re-purchasing of UK shares has been going on for a long time. They are cashing in on the UK discounted price to bank a bit of money, withdrawing the shares from circulation, and have already issued US shares to replace them. If it carries on for 10 years. I guess they will then delist from London!
I'll try to find an ancient RNS that explains it if anyone is interested.

So we open (US) vigorously up to $9.40 from close of $8.80 and then drop back half of the gain. This yo-yoing tells me there are two opposing points of view around - which one will eventually hold sway in the short term?
I don't think anyone is trying to manipulate the SP - too many shares available to do that. My guess is this will settle around $9.50 (almost £7) by the end of the week. Then for a gradual upward trend.....