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Months ago I thought a good eoy target for CCL would be 840p. Then we had the disastrous reaction to the 3rd Q figures, various downgrades etc, and I thought I'll average down, but I don't suppose we'll have the slightest chance of seeing 840p for another year.
So what has changed? Fundamentally nothing. The SP slump was clearly overdone, and the present rise will probably get ahead of itself. Sentiment is king! (Aided by shorters...)
What has changed is that I'm in profit again!
It's deliberately misleading. The MMs arrange the bid and offer so that buys are reported as sells (or vice versa sometimes). So here they want to clear the 28k stock from the earlier sell. Get people to buy at under the mid SP and it looks like they're selling. It is supposed to encourage more buyers with the false idea they are getting a good deal.
They're dropping the price to cover the large sell of 28k. When the books are balanceds the SP may well rise again.
And incidentally, the previous comment of "why sell at the lowest price?" If you want to sell that many you'll need to accept a lower price.
Times by 0.88
There is a reason, and that is that the UK shares don't have the same voting rights as the US ones. The 0.88 is purely arbitary, and varies over time by a little, but as you say, it's a good guide.
Catching up on the earlier discussion about mcap and sp expectations.
The current debt of $35b plays an important/major part in the situation.
I'm not sure what the debt was 3 years ago, but with present debt at around 3x mcap, the mcap cannot recover to previous levels until much of the debt is paid off, and dividends won't be paid whilst high levels of debt are being dealt with.
Suppose (very theoretically) that new shares were issued to pay off all $35b. Mcap would increase by 300%, and dividends could be paid as early as next year. But the number of shares in issue would also increase by the same amount, so the new dividend would only be a small fraction of the previous one (1/8th???)
This gives a minimum SP of about £50/8 = £6.25. Not a realistic prospect, but it does illustrate why the current sp is as low as it is.
Don't think so. Just in the last year $5.3b debt taken out - and there's a lot more to pay back (over $13b and counting).
So I've reduced my 5 year target to £13.50, but would hope to see £8.40 at present when the stock overhang is gone. I now think we'll be very lucky to see £10 this year.
$13b is a lot to pay off - I wouldn't be surprised if when the balance sheet is healthy, that more stock is issued to pay off some of it. This is why I don't think we'll ever get back to the optimistic figures some people are hoping for.
So its a weak but for me now.
I had been half expecting a placing foer the last few weeks. Given recent SP movements, I am happy to see a price of $9.95, and the amount raised is only about 10% of existing stock - so not too much dilution.
$9.95 equates to £8.32, but with the usual UK discount of around 12% this gives us 732p UK SP.
There will be a lot of SP movement in the rest of the week, but I think we could end up over £8 when the dust settles.
So where might hte SP eventually end uP/
Factor in massive share dilution, massive losses and incredible borrowing to cover these, my long term £21 target of last year is now recuced to £14, say in 4/5 years time.
So there's room for a modest increase to around £10 short term, all being well.
hautecouture - you are misunderstanding what this is saying.
74% ALBD means that 74% of the fleet is available and bookable for cruises.
So it's 26% not available, a mixture of cabins set aside for covid, and some ships not in service.
This post needs a new hwading!
hautecouture - you are misunderstanding what this is saying.
74% ALBD means that 74% of the fleet is available and bookable for cruises.
So it's 26% not available, a mixture of cabins set aside for covid, and some ships not in service.
On NYSE there are two listings, both in dollars.
CCL is US stock, and consistently trades 10%=/- higher than CUK, which are the ADRs of the UK stock. CUK trades at approx the same as CCL (uk).
The reason for this is the UK stock does not have the same voting rights as the US stock.
May I assure you that if you're going to catch COVID, Azura is one of the best places to do so. My wife succumbed yesterday - so we're in isolation and not allowed to fly home today. But room service is good and deluxe balcony provided for the "patient" Minimun 5 days wait for next LFT.
Not of course good for CCL's bottom line. This all costs money - credits for "ill" days, new flight home, and in our case could be an extra week on the ship.
But good, I hope, for their publicity?
Currently on Azura. Can fully understand depressed SP. Ship about 55/60% full. Masks back mandatory as you walk around ship etc. It'll take a long time for CCL to return to good profitability.
But I'm glad we came, even with COVID hassle.