Member Info for mathsprof

Ahhh, as I type the SP recovers a bit.

The market reaction doesn't make normal sense. The results are better than expected, yet there is a sell off. Or maybe it's just some taking profits. If that's the case, we'll be back to £7 by the evening, and perhaps even set to go higher tomorrow.

If the results had been at or below expectations - doesn't bear to think about!

Yes, results out, and up on December forecasts, and better than analysts consensus of last week.

Losses 55c / share, and revenue up to $4.4b. All looks promising. Very upbeat tone to report at first glance.

I think it's usually at 2.15pm

It doesn't really matter what we gain or lose short term, unless you are trying to trade.
What matters is whether after the results what CCL decides to do about debt reduction. No new action needed (good). Issue more shares (bad). Issue more long term debt at high rates (quite bad).
The SP is (rightly IMHO) where it is because of these possibilities.

Well I think the lack of volume says it all about the RNS.

bot - That explains why the Ave Pax per ship for RCL is only 2300 in my figures - less than their main brand's smallest ship. The 59 ships must include the tiny ones.
In fact, of course it makes the comparison even more favourable for CCL.

Our day in the sun will eventually arrive!

Final thought on the outlook for today.
Why is it that the city/Wall street are valuing CCL much less than RCL/NCLH?
It must be due to the debt repayments, the worry about further dilution. Give a dog a bad name, so don't lend him money at sensible rates, then the dog does become a dog! (to mix metaphors)
The rates lent to CCL have always appeared higher than to RCL for example.
I think this also explains some of the extreme volatility of CCL and the others. Sentiment is calling the tune on the debt management/ share issues etc. and as sentiment changes the fortunes of the companies will actually change too.

So what about operating capacity?
Figures from recent dates: CCL 220k lower berths, NCLH 60k and RCL 140k.
Number of ships: CCL around 90, NCLH around 30 and RCL around 60.

Potentially Mcap of CCL could be 50% higher than RCL (ie x1.5) and 200% higher than NCLH (ie x 3).
But we may have to wait 5 years, until the debts are mostly paid off.

Sorry, RCL highpoint $135. Even in 2019 CCL was beginning to lag behind.

I've just found a page I stashed away at the beginning of the pandemic price slumps.
It's really amazing how the 3 companies have fared (SP wise) in the last 4 years.
March 2019 - before any hint of problems ahead: CCL $57, NCLH $55 and RCL $120
High points during the year: CCL $57, NCLH $60 and RCL $120.
Now we have today: CCL $10.36, NCLH $14.54 and RCL $70

CCL have had two 10% dilutions, I don't know about the others. But still where's the logic? the risk? the recovery going to be? I'm sticking to CCL. The other SPs are crazy in comparison.

NCL results in

Looks like initial reaction to today's results are negative. 6% down pre-market.
Drag on CCL is fairly muted though. Let's see what happens at 1430.

Looks like a very positive reaction to RCL results. They're up even more.

Bhants - Arcadia not that old. 2005, I think.
I had wondered whether we were on the same May cruise, but I'm going on the one before to Norway. ATB

Perhaps also you're looking at a delated US price??

RCL up 4%, not1%

Don't forget to factor in the 0.6% increase in the exchange rate, which will lower UK SP a bit.
May even open at 8am around £8.20, all being well.

Yes that's how it looks. A bit rough and ready moving an exact $1b.
I suspect this morning's fall has nothing to do with it - and US pre-open has fallen as well.

Does anyone understand what the purpose or effect of this morning's RNS transaction is?