Member Info for mathsprof

Botbot- I lifted the number of shares from annual reports (19 and 23) which seem from betterlife's link to reflect the mid year numbers rather than the year end numbers.

I suspect CCL's analyst ratings reflect the fear of further dilutions to pay off debt, coupled with the alternative fear of no dividends for 5 or 6 years instead.

So I think CCL sp will not rise much until these fears are alleviated.

Botbot - I don't see how you get your 2019 mcap, when there were only 688m shares in issue then.

$40 x 688m = $27.52b

In short, yes.

Shares in issue Dec 2019 were around 688m, it's now 1263m. This is a factor of 0.545, i.e. 83.5% dilution.

So only expect your £32 pre-covid sp to be £17.50 now to give an identical mcap.

This is part of the reason why I can't see a sp of over £17.50 until there is a realistic prospect of enough debt being paid off to allow a return of a decent dividend (say of 20p or 25c per quarter)

It may well be that RCL is grossly overvalued rather than CCL undervalued.

I've done my number crunching for the year end and come up with a mean estimate of good value for CCL of £14.20

I would sell part of my holding above this price, and would not buy more above £10.60

As for £20, some time in 2025 at the very earliest.

RSI hit 80 yesterday, so there may be a retrace or stutter in the SP climb. Feels overbought to me at the moment. Perhaps £12.50 is a good target for results day?

Sog - no interest until any later tranches, see initial RNS:

" No interest is payable on the First Deposit, the Further Deposits and the Fourth Deposit. Interest on any Future Deposit shall be mutually agreed between the Company and RiverFort."

Don't know if this makes any difference to your analysis? I personally am still expecting further falls.

My opinion, Rebster, is that I have no idea whether they are lying. I don't actually care.

What I don't understand is why certain posters are upset about a bit of negative spin, or contrary opinions.

Then rudeness occurs, threads get deleted, and we all suffer!

Rebster408. I don't think my definition of a lie is the same as yours.

Saying something will happen in the future is only a lie if you don't actually believe it will happen. I suspect Puma etc. actually believe (or believed when it was first written) that the SP would or could fall that low.

Where is the evidence to show they didn't believe that?

Alans55. That's simply not true for many of us. I have bought in the last 12 years at prices ranging from 0.2p (ie 10p now) to over £2. By also selling some after snippets of news I am well in credit.

Unlike some bios there have not been massive dilutions resulting in permanent loss of value (eg the likes of VAL).

There's always a reason to buy in here: the prospect for future value. Then cash in a bit more of your profit.

What a pathetic attempt at an informative RNS.

It's late.

It's incomplete.

It's an insult to investors.

Come on SAR you ought to do a lot better than this.

£10 very soon, so I expect it won't be long back to £11. About time too.

I wonder if this 96k sell is a prelude to the news of the next RF instalment? Does it finish off the original allocation?

Can anyone guess why we haven't yet heard about the second instalment?

It's not so much the price of oil that matters for the SP here. The oil price itself is an indicator of the market's reaction to the war in the ME.

So yes, oil price down. CCL up!

Yes, SP in mid November 2013 was 0.63p. How many AIM companies issued options 10 years ago that are actually worth cashing in because the SP has doubled in 10 years, even though the current SP is a pale reflection of a few years ago and its future potential?

Incidentally from 30p to 57.5p in 10 years is 6.7% compound interest. A bit better than PBs

The shares won't hit the market. They will go to RF to dribble sell over the next few months. It will probably be more like 400k or 500k shares.

However this realisation might spook the market further and cause a 5 or 10p fall.

But in the long term it makes no difference to the worth of the company.

Yes I've noticed that RF appear to be selling more vigorously before they receive the next batch at the end of next week. £0.3m could be well over 500k shares.

The explanation I can offer is simply that there is continuous selling pressure from RF. The MMs need to drop the SP to entice mroe buyers so that RF can continue to sell.

This is what some call the death spiral.

I have no real idea of what RF are actually selling but many of the big 10k type trades must surely be thiers.

Redburn has recommended CCL today with target price $23. Looks good compared with current $15.33

It's more a case of blues outstrip the reds, I think. Eg trade at end of day probably RF sell.

The comparison was purely with the mechanics of the deal, not the nature or type of company, nor indeed their perceived prospects.

Any organisation which has a programme of persistent regular selling will cause a slide in the SP.